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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics October 13, 2012
  Oct 13, 2012

Vancouver, British Columbia (News Release) ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) the polling firm that brought you the correct call in Delta South by-election (1999), introduced the BC Greens at double digits (2000), killed the vote split between BC Liberals and Bill Vander Zalm and BC Reform for BC Friends of Free Enterprise organization to permit the huge BC Liberal win of 2001, killed the Coquihalla Highway sale (2003), saved Gordon Campbell's drunk driving behind (2003), was the first to raise major issues in the BC Rail affair, predicted Surrey mayor Dianne Watts surprise upset of former mayor Doug McCallum,predicted Stephen Harper's first government 3 months in advance (2005), predicted George W. Bush win precisely (2004), predicted Barack Obama's presidential win (when he was behind Hillary Clinton by 20 points) in January 08, predicted Sam Sullivan win for Vancouver mayor and the Vision Vancouver nomination by basis points for all candidates AND Gregor Robertson mayoralty wins - AND without a shadow of doubt documented through 7 public opinion polls the fact that the BC public did not want the Enbridge pipeline while the mainstream press and polling attempted to say otherwise--and predicted Justin Trudeau to lead federal Liberals (Jan 12). We will be producing 2 major BC polls in the coming month.
The first will be prior to the end of October 2012 and the second will be in early November following the BC Liberal convention.
It is our intention to ensure that no funny business occurs between big business - the media - and the mainstream polling firms. Watch for our polls - you might have helped produce them!
Introduction by Peter Kelly - October is a month of transition for the BC Liberals. We see that there is some consolidation of the right of centre vote given the relative collapse of BC Conservative support, but its not entirely going to the BC Liberals. The NDP has seen an insignificant drop of 1.5 points, but is in no danger of losing its place to romp to a super-majority if that election was today. If Christy Clark was looking to the John Cummins leadership fiasco as a means to jump back into the lead, its a failed thinking. While some are unimpressed with the drama in the BC Conservatives, more are ready for change and just want Clark and the BC Liberals out of power.
The Glimmer of hope for the Clark Liberals is in the Fraser Valley and parts of the interior where its a genuine three way split. The Liberals are positioned to retain a healthy collection of seats for what is likely to be a rump opposition and will likely shut out the BC Conservatives. This split has been enabled in part because the NDP's significant lead in the Valley and Interior slip to single digits. As for the Lower Mainland and the Island, it will be a long tough campaign for the BC Liberals.

Question #1
Which political leader and party in British Columbia do you currently support? (Leaders and Party to 100%)
Adrian Dix and BC New Democrats    46.5 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberals    25 %
John Cummins and BC Conservatives    17.5 %
Jane Sterk and BC Greens    10 %
Other Party    1.5 %
Undecided/Other    14.5 %
Question #2
How often do you follow BC political news in the regular mainstream press including radio, television and print media?
Often    11 %
Sometimes    21 %
Not Often/Not at all    63 %
Question #3
Do you access BC political news online and in social media(?)
Often    15 %
Sometimes    34 %
Not Often/Not at all    58 %
Question #4
Would you support the holding of BC provincial and municipal election voting on line as well as with regular community ballot boxes if you were convinced the process would function properly and be secure?
Yes    52 %
No    34 %
Question #5
Would you support on line referendum votes to be held on such matters related to significant taxation policy and the construction of the Enbridge pipeline - if the cost for so doing were reasonable?
Yes    60 %
No    27 %
Question #6
In your opinion which of the following professions produces the most benefit for society overall? (Choose only 1) (Responses other than Undecided presented to 100%)
School Teachers    40 %
Nurses    28 %
Doctors    14.5 %
Police    9 %
Lawyers    5.5 %
Politicians    3 %
Undecided/Can’t Answer/All Other    18 %
Question #7
Would you support Surrey mayor Dianne Watts taking over the leadership of a combined BC Liberal – BC Conservative coalition in time for the upcoming May 2013 general provincial election in British Columbia?
Yes    27.5 %
No    52 %
Undecided/All Other    20 %
The BC New Democrats continue to hold a commanding lead over BC Liberals and BC Conservatives. The combined support for BC Liberals and BC Conservatives is equal to the support for the BC New Democrats. The current BC Opposition New Democrats command (54%) support on Vancouver Island and (51%) in the Lower Mainland of the province, with (33.5%) support in Langley and the Fraser Valley and (34%) support in the north and interior of the province.
The BC Liberals have taken a lead over BC Conservatives beyond the margin of error despite another week of mistakes from BC Liberal leader Christy Clark (Enbridge pipeline – trip to Allison Redford Premier of Alberta), and her more recent thoughtless conduct following the recent death of a young Port Coquitlam girl (blowback is just starting). There were conspicuous divisions in the BC Conservative party/cult but much of this activity was not consumed by most respondent/voters – who were simply not paying attention.
Christy’s trip to Alberta helps her a little with a handful of voters but also entrenches support against her with a larger number of them, particularly those who support John Cummins and BC Conservatives. The anecdote against Christy especially from party supporters is sufficient to cause serious concern if you are a BC Liberal supporter. Anecdote on BC Conservative leader John Cummins solidifies him with some while others are simply willing to stick to party brand keeping a healthy distance from BC Liberals—as one BC Conservative supporter said “how stupid could you be to give these people (BC Liberals) another term?”
At this point given the BC Liberal executive and BC Conservative players at top – I would be more inclined to go against the grain of opinion – to say that I don’t expect a good election campaign from the BC Liberals – notwithstanding their money. The loss of top advisors – Sharon White – President (really?), the communications director now Executive Director – and Christy Clark who cannot construct a professional ad lib to save her life – against a measured and disciplined leader in John Cummins – with likely more push to come from the federal party at election time – makes me believe that this split is here to stay through the election unless major surgery occurs-and ultimately the BC Conservatives may do much better than presently expected.
When we take away response options “I would spoil my ballot” or “would not vote” provided in base line questions on leader and party in previous ROBBINS polls and surveys of July, August and September – the BC NDP and BC Green support always increases under this condition, while the BC Liberal and BC Conservative support decreases or the BC Liberal support alone decreases. This suggests generally that the quality of support for BC Liberals and centre right so called free enterprise policies is not being received as well as the quality of support for BC NDP and BC Greens—if the inference is available that one might consider spoiling their ballot or not voting. The news surrounding the Enbridge pipeline – and now the appearance of poor regulation of meat production out of Alberta is creating a sense of disdain generally among British Columbians for the conservative free market values known to be prevalent in that province—“who the hell do they think they are?” This new BC First political sentiment is sure to blow a strong wind through Adrian Dix and his BC New Democrat sails—should he harness it correctly and with certainty.
The BC Liberals score a paltry (16%) support on Vancouver Island, (23%) in the Lower Mainland, (31%) in Langley and Fraser Valley and (28%) in the north and interior. The BC Conservatives hold (18%) on Vancouver Island, have dropped to (12%) in the lower mainland, and attract (28%) in Langley and Fraser Valley and (27%) in the north and interior.
Obviously the difference from previous polls to this one is that the BC Conservatives have lost support in the region encompassing Vancouver City to Surrey (Richmond, Delta, Burnaby, North Vancouver, Tri-City, New Westminster) This decline in BC Conservative support has done little to increase support for the BC Liberals over the same area however. The BC Liberals have trended up slightly on Vancouver Island, Langley and Fraser Valley and North and Interior. This slight uptick is less meaningful on Vancouver Island – but it matters in Langley Fraser Valley and the North and Interior where the combined BC Liberal and BC Conservative support is significant.
The combined support for BC Liberals and BC Conservatives on Vancouver Island is (34%), in the lower mainland (36%), Langley and Fraser Valley (59%), and north and interior (55%). If these numbers were considered under a centre right coalition we could see that Vancouver Island numbers remain lower than in polls and during elections over the last decade, and lower mainland numbers (Vancouver to Surrey) are definitely down, however Fraser Valley and North and Interior combined numbers are stellar.
(11%) of BC Voters (2009) “-follow- BC political news in the regular mainstream press including radio, television and print media – “often”, while (15%) of BC Voters –access- BC political news online and in social media-“often”. Based on approximately 1,500,000 BC Voters – this means that 165,000 (2009) BC Voters are –following- BC political news in the regular mainstream press – and 225,000 are –accessing- BC political news online and in social media – “often”.
(21%) of BC Voters follow BC political news in the regular press “sometimes” while (34%) access BC political news On line and in social media. This means that approximately 315,000 BC Voters (2009) “follow” BC political news in the mainstream press “sometimes” for a grand total of 480,000 – followers of BC political news in the mainstream press “often” or “sometimes”.
In comparison 510,000 BC Voters “access” BC political news on line and in social media for a grand total of 735,000 who “access” BC political news on line and in social media.
By Leader and Party (13%) of Adrian Dix and BC New Democrat supporters “follow” mainstream BC political news “often”, while (23.5%) “follow” it “sometimes” and (50%) do “not often” follow it.
(23.5%) of Christy Clark and BC Liberals supporters “follow” mainstream BC political news “often” while (31.5%) follow it “sometimes”, and (42%) do “not often” follow it.
(14.5%) of John Cummins and BC Conservatives “follow” mainstream BC political news “often” while (27.5%) follow the news “sometimes”, while (22.5%) of BC Greens “follow” mainstream BC political news “often” and (33%) “follow” is “sometimes”.
(37.5%) of Adrian Dix and BC NDP supporters “access” BC political news online and in social media “often” while (42%) do so “sometimes”. (27%) of Christy Clark and BC Liberal supporters “access online and social media political news “often” as do (15%) of John Cummins and BC Conservatives supporters. (28%) of CC and BCL supporters access online and social media political news “sometimes” as do (21%) of BC Conservatives.
(62%) of BC New Democrats support “secure” on line voting included with regular ballot community voting from Question 4 – as do (53%) of BC Liberals (29%) of BC Conservatives and (44%) of BC Greens. (51%) of Undecided/Can’t Answer respondents from Question 1 also support on line voting from Question 4.
(67%) of BC New Democrats, (58%) of BC Liberals, (44%) of BC Conservatives, (76%) of BC Greens, and (61%) of Undecided/Can’t Answer respondents from Question 1 support online referendum style voting proposed in Question 5.
From this ROBBINS survey - clearly more British Columbians are ‘accessing’ political news from social media than ‘following’ political news on mainstream media. The amount of advertising dollars being poured into mainstream media far exceeds that which is attracted by social media overall, however in terms of political ‘influence’ mainstream media is no longer the equal of social media particularly when we consider the money factor. The political influence does not come from establishment sources whose broad brush communication and mixed message – and apparently forced ‘cause and effect methodology’ has little connection with voters anymore—it doesn’t ring true – and isn’t perceived as credible.
People are seeking information to form their own opinion and ignoring the professional message crafters. Other messengers like mainstream pollsters who ply their trade in conjunction with these mediums and gain profits from similar contributors are losing credibility at a commensurate pace. As U.S. Justice Antonin Scalia asserts – freedom of speech should never be curtailed, we should know the source (who paid) for the free speech however. In Canada and for purposes of this poll – it is never clear who is paying for the free speech of major corporations many of whom own the mediums for free speech in the first place.
More evidence that our country is immature – more soufflé and substance – but with a good attitude from citizens that if coupled with better political and legal institutions – may give Canada an opportunity to be all it claims to be --- to others – over the next 20 years.
Prime evidence of a new focus of clean free speech was this article published at entitled “Breaking News - 25,000 IP addresses from BC in 1 year -Glen P. Robbins Pollster Expose on cougar/politician Christy Clark - The truth shall set us all free.” This one article, first published soon after Christy Clark won the BC leadership, has now attracted well over 30,000 IP addresses from the Province of British Columbia alone - from boutique polling/publishing site @ robbinssceresearch and includes thousands of unique visitors attracted to the article from comment sections of the mainstream media on line including The Vancouver Sun, Vancouver Province, Globe and Mail and other noteworthy Blogs. This article written with the assistance of Simon Fraser University archives and the Peak newspaper - was part of a larger effort by dozens of persons including ROBBINS Researchers - to place the article in various on line mainstream publications and other blogs all organized by publisher and Murder Inc. executive director Jim Van Rassel who worked with others including a group of very devoted BC Teachers helping to get this important message out—and we thank for all of their wonderful efforts-likely ensuring that Christy Clark would never win the office of Premier by way of general election – following Gordon Campbell who won three consecutive 'times'.
Simple – yet effective particularly when parlayed in conjunction with the mix of conservative and progressive methods of public opinion research gathering –combined with more esoteric commentary.
It was our desired intention nearly two years ago to seriously hamper Christy Clark’s credibility and we clearly accomplished this at the expense of the mainstream media’s denial of our capacity and ability to influence political news in British Columbia - the primary focus of our experiment now 15 years in the making. When ROBBINS first began public opinion polling in 1998 with the intention of de spinning mainstream media and later mainstream public opinion polling – who would have guessed that we would have directly influence the election of some major political stars including a second term George Bush – first time prediction of political ingrate Stephen Harper – the legend poll predicting US President Barack Obama (when advisors told he could never win) and locally—breathing life into the dead career of current Surrey mayor Dianne Watts or cause the resignation of a BC Supreme Court Justice---and impact on policy after policy. The message here is that political leaders need to keep their promises and pay their debts – the overarching foreshadowing of confrontation is at the feet of Adrian Dix and the BC New Democrats. Fix ‘the problem’ or we will fix you.
On a decided basis BC Teachers (1) (40%-Education) are seen by BC Voters (2009) as providing the most benefit to society “overall”, followed by “Nurses” and “Doctors” (2) (42%-Health)) and then last by police, lawyers, politicians (3) (17.5%-Law and Order). The fact that only (83%) of BC Voters make a response selection is telling. The confidence in the law is high among a scant few British Columbians – while Teachers and Nurses – the blue collar vocation professionals are clearly held in the highest regard of all professions in the province of British Columbia.
British Columbians are warming to on line voting – with higher numbers supporting this type of voting in Referendum type votes – as in the example of the Enbridge pipeline “if you were convinced the process would function properly and be secure” and “the cost for so doing were reasonable”. Adrian Dix, BC NDP leader would do well to ask Elections BC to determine the cost of a vote on the Enbridge pipeline – the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion – oil tankers down BC’s coastline – and the concept of joint Government/private enterprise refinery in the north of the province. Just mentioning this as a possibility will change the entire complexion of negotiations eh?
With the National Energy Board comprised of individuals from Ontario and Alberta located in downtown Calgary Alberta (finance/banks and oil provinces), the Prime Minister from Calgary (all downtown oil), and major mainstream media owned by Shaw (downtown Calgary) or others from out of province – and Christy Clark recently running to Calgary to raise money for herself and her party after meeting with the Premier to tell her maybe on the Enbridge deal (again) – the evidence is clear that our provincial interests are under siege from outsiders and from traitors within—and that the coverage of the events from the mainstream media must be declared as substantially less than competent from any standard of journalistic competence.
The outcome from Question 6 should send a clear message to Adrian Dix as this relates to self regulation of professional bodies --going forward---British Columbians don’t have confidence in the law/the courts are a mess/BC needs more transparency in terms of its Judges/Justices/and complaints about lawyers need to be conducted away from the BC Law Society. British Columbians are losing confidence in the medical professional – but not nurses. Teachers are the big winners here – as more people recognize the correlation between properly educated young British Columbians and the healthy economy and the imperative that we need to know the competency level of all teachers – at all times – provided for in a professional and legitimate manner – the contact between teachers and children involves many hours and makes the need for strong relationships in excellent learning environments not just necessary – and beyond essential – this is our first priority.
Surrey mayor Dianne Watts is the best the so called free enterprise has - going forward. In fact it’s all they have remaining—and she is certainly worth a close look. The bodacious Surrey mayor attracts (62%) of BC Liberal and (53%) of BC Conservatives support. It is important to note that Ms. Watts only attracts (23%) of North and Interior support but there is a (33%) undecided factor from that region on this Question. Also, Watts attracts (27%) support in the populous lower mainland, a whopping (75%) of BC Liberal and BC Conservative support in Surrey, plus a whopping (41%) of Langley and Fraser Valley support.
Dianne Watts attracts (76.5%) of the combined BC Liberal – BC Conservative support in Surrey and White Rock. Theoretically, the case can be made that Dianne Watts leading a BC Liberal – BC Conservative coalition could win or compete with the high flying BC New Democrats.
The free enterprise party’s have a clear choice – do nothing and watch the BC Liberal Party be reduced to nominal seats (nuisance factor) in the BC Legislature with BC Conservatives possibly under official party status–resulting in the BC NDP being virtually guaranteed two terms or more in office, OR make a move to get rid of both Christy Clark and John Cummins// – all the booze Whistler has to offer the BC Liquor Party – and all the defiance the crusty old people who lead the BC Conservatives can muster - won’t ultimately amount to much competition for the BC NDP come BC’s spring election.
ROBBINS speculates that a Dianne Watts led coalition will add about 20-22 seats to the totals the current versions of the separated BC Liberals and BC Conservatives will win as they are presently going forward. In December---- voters aren’t paying attention – and mid January is when any attention comes back—to any degree. There is really only four to five months for the BC Liberals and BC Conservatives to come together – what happens when Adrian Dix with 60-70 seats gives his successful Fraser Valley – Okanagan – Richmond – and Prince George candidates – Cabinet seats? Imagine a BC Legislature with 41 BC NDP – 37 BC Liberal-Conservative seats --- and 5 Independents?
Methodology and Other-This is a ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) survey of 1,440 - 2009 Voters in the last general provincial election in the Province of British Columbia conducted October 6th to 11th, 2012. This survey was conducted by both telephone and on line. The margin of error is 1.59%, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence. The opposition BC New Democrats leads the governing BC Liberals on a statistical basis across the entire province by as much as 26% or as little as 16%, with the probability of lead statistically at 100%. The BC New Democrats lead the BC Conservatives by as much as 33.5% and as little as 23.5%, with the probability of lead statistically at 100%. The BC Liberals lead the BC Conservatives by as much as 12.7% or as little as 2.5% with the probability of lead at 100%.
The BC New Democrats should sweep Vancouver Island.
The BC New Democrats lead the BC Liberals (52%) to (23%) in the lower mainland of the Province which includes the cities of Vancouver, Richmond, Delta, Burnaby, North Vancouver {city and district}, Tri-Cities, Surrey and New Westminster. The sample size for this region provides a margin of error of 3.5% and determines that the BC NDP has a statistical lead of a much as 35.5% to as little as 22.5%.
The most populous lower mainland will be dominated by the BC New Democrats who will likely win every seat except for possibly 5 or 6.
In Langley – Fraser Valley the BC NDP leads the BC Liberals 33.5% to 31%. The margin of error in this region is 6% and the BC NDP has a lead of as much as 15% or could be behind the BC Liberals by as much as 10% statistically. The likelihood of a BC NDP lead over the BC Liberals is 65%. I would speculate the BC Liberals based on these numbers retain only 3 or 4 seats in this region.
The BC NDP is leading the BC Liberals in the North and Interior region of the province by 34% to 28%. The margin of error in this region is 7%. The BC NDP lead could be as high as 7% or as low as minus 7%. The probability of a BC NDP lead over the BC Liberals is 82%. I would speculate the BC Liberals based on these numbers retain only 5 seats in this region.
At this point in time I see the BC Liberals with 10 – 12 of 83 seats in the BC Legislature come May 14, 2013. I see the BC Conservatives with 3 or 4 seats and Independents in 3 seats. I see the BC NDP with 65 seats. For each percentage the BC NDP increases over their current support of 46.5%, I see them adding one more seat and the other parties subsequently losing one seat with the BC NDP adding two seats for each percentage over 48.5% and the other parties losing two seats.
Dianne Watts current mayor of Surrey could change things if she became the leader of a coalition party made up of BC Liberals and BC Conservatives with current party leaders Christy Clark and John Cummins resigning their positions. Currently Dianne Watts has the support of (61%) of Christy Clark and BC Liberals who would like to see her replace Christy Clark and (51%) of current John Cummins and BC Conservative supporters or just less than (23%) of total support of BC Voters before factoring BC NDP or BC Green party supporters and Undecided.
Glen P. Robbins

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