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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics April 11, 2012
  Apr 11, 2012

(Method) A sample of 1,540 B.C. ‘voters’ from ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) lists between December 12-23 and December 27-30, 2011. This ROBBINS New Trend public opinion poll has a margin of error of 2.5% plus or minus 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence.
Questions 1 and 2 adjusted for gender through regions of the province included in this poll. Outcomes for all other questions are adjusted for gender by provincial information. Actual data produced reflects strong skew toward female ‘voters’ from lists.

Question #1
Which leader and party in British Columbia do you support at this time? (Rotated except for Undecided).
Adrian Dix and BC New Democrats    37.2 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberals    25.8 %
John Cummins and BC Conservatives    24.7 %
Jane Sterk and BC Green    12.3 %
Undecided/Can’t Answer    18 %
Question #2
Which provincial leader and party - in your opinion- would do the best job of managing government resources? (Rotated – but placed 1, 2, 3, and 4).
Adrian Dix and BC New Democrats    35.8 %
John Cummins and BC Conservatives    27.9 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberals    25.7 %
Jane Sterk and BC Green    10.4 %
Undecided/Can’t Answer    16 %
Question #3
In your opinion should BC’s top court judge sit as Vice Chair of a charity whose majority Board of Directors and primary focus involves the investment of money?
Yes    16.2 %
No    74.6 %
Undecided    9 %
Question #4
In your opinion from the following responses which is BEST suited to distribute your tax dollars to community charities?
The Provincial Government    15 %
A large private charity    45 %
Neither    34 %
Undecided    6 %
Question #5
Entertainment Question: If you were given the opportunity and the resources to travel throughout any ONE province in Canada, which one would you choose? (Not rotated)
Quebec    26.4 %
Nova Scotia    18.5 %
Alberta    12.9 %
Ontario    12.8 %
Newfoundland and Labrador    8.8 %
Saskatchewan    8.6 %
Manitoba    7.2 %
Prince Edward Island    2.3 %
New Brunswick    1.6 %
None of these/Can’t Answer/Undecided    13.5 %
This ROBBINS New Trend public opinion poll reflects a comfortable lead for the BC New Democrats at years end (2011) ( average question 1 and 2 (36.5%) BCNDP 1st place—(26.3%) BC Conservatives 2nd place-----(25.8%) BC Liberals-3rd place.
Based on leader and party popularity (question 1) combined with confidence in the management of government resources (question 2) – this ROBBINS New Trend poll marks the first occasion in over a decade where the governing BC Liberals have dropped to 3rd place in public support in the Province of British Columbia.
Other British Columbia public opinion polls conducted over the same period of time reveal the BC NDP with -34% - {Forum}-, -36%-{NRG}-, and –40% in mid November {Angus Reid}- an average of 36% or one half a percentage point BELOW what this ROBBINS New Trend reports in its average of questions 1 and 2.
The BC Conservatives have (26%) support in this ROBBINS New Trend poll over questions 1 and 2. while {Forum Research} declares their support at 23%, {NRG} 19% and {Angus Reid} 18%. The BC Conservative average among the other polling firms is 20%. ROBBINS New Trend has the BC Conservatives up 30% trending toward a confrontation with the BC New Democrats.
Christy Clark’s BC Liberals are listed as under (26%) public support in our ROBBINS New Trend poll, 23% in the {Forum} poll (earlier this month), while {NRG} reflects support for the BC Liberals at 31% the same outcome found by {Angus Reid} in November, for a polling average of 28.5% - 2 and one half percentage points above the declared percentage of this ROBBINS New Trend poll – clear evidence in this ROBBINS New Trend of fast declining public support for Christy Clark’s BC Liberals heading into 2012.
According to results from this ROBBINS New Trend poll and in comparison with other previous polls from other polling firms – the BC New Democrats are holding at around (36%), the BC Conservatives are on the increase (26%) – and moving upward fast – and the BC Liberals under Christy Clark are slowly sinking under water (26%) from their heady totals of (57%) in 2001 and (46%) in the 2009 general provincial election.
This downward New Trend may be just the tip of proverbial iceberg for the BC Liberals.
BC Greens have increased support to (11%) in this ROBBINS New Trend poll {from 7% in our previous poll} – {Forum} 15%, {NRG} did not use the BC Green Party as a response – and {Angus Reid} polled BC Greens at 8% in November. The three poll average for BC Greens is 11% consistent with the results of this ROBBINS New Trend poll.
In this ROBBINS New Trend public opinion poll The BC New Democrats dominate Vancouver Island with (46%) or one out of two supporting them. Christy Clark’s BC Liberals have plummeted on Vancouver Island attracting only (18%). John Cummins and his BC Conservatives are the new centre right favourite on Vancouver Island with (25%) support---decided support.
The New Democrats are performing well through the more populous lower mainland of the province (Richmond to Surrey) with (38%) –Decided- support while the BC Liberals are doing poorly with (25.5%) support. Through the lower mainland the BC Conservatives attract (23.5%) support – and BC Greens (11%).
In the Fraser Valley and Langley the BC NDP achieve (30%) support, BC Liberals (31%), BC Conservatives (30%), and BC Greens (9%).
From Merritt to Prince George (North) and Cranbrook (East) and the Okanagan region of the province, the BC NDP attract (29%) support, while the BC Liberals attract (29%), BC Conservatives (30%), and BC Greens (12%).
The BC Liberals under leader Christy Clark continue to place emphasis on jobs and the economy – with little discussion of the management of government resources referred to in our question 2, an important measurement of public confidence, particularly when one considers that the BC Liberals have possessed the people’s check book for over a decade.
Available data from research suggests that performance in job creation and the economy between the BC Liberals and BC NDP is in fact quite similar. The BC Liberals have increased government debt at a considerably faster rate than the BCNDP did. In so doing, the BC Liberals have also made it virtually impossible for public accountability to occur as much of this new debt in included in private public partnerships. This move by the BC Liberals towards secrecy in government’s relations with big business while using the people’s money (“Other people’s Money”).
This type of secrecy is also evident in various political appointments and relationships among similar noteworthy persons – including court representatives and media bosses having professional relationships and appointments to institutions whose core business relate to finance and the economy. The negative weight of this effort as evidenced by these polling results– and disturbing controversy and dishonesty in other areas involving finance, taxation and politics (i.e. HST) has essentially triggered a massive decline in voter support for the governing BC Liberals that as the results of this poll strongly suggest – could possibly lead to them being wiped out in the provincial general election in 2013.
In our question 3 it is clear that British Columbians do not believe that their top court judge should be sitting on a charity whose primary function relates to investment which is currently the practice (Vancouver Foundation). However, question 4 reveals that a majority of decided respondents are of the opinion that a large private charity (such as the Vancouver Foundation or United Way) is “better suited” to distribute money to communicate charity than the provincial government is.
A third of British Columbians are not comfortable with either a large charity or provincial government distributing their tax dollars to community charities.
Respondents, (particularly women ->80%) are not comfortable with BC’s top court judge in any other capacity than presiding over the courts. The overarching perception is that judges should not be placed in any position which could have ANY influence upon them, particularly one involving primarily investment dollars - on them - and should confine their sphere of operation to the courts only. The few that support our top judge in this capacity – express the support in the context of additional judicial perspective. Judges are not elected in British Columbia (or anywhere in Canada for that matter). They are appointed – after a list of nominees is provided by a group of legal (and political) insiders. The BC public has no idea about the character or ideology of any appointments to the Bench. This is cause for more introspective consideration in our professional opinion.
In earlier ROBBINS Sce Research, the late (former) Chief Justice of the BC Supreme Court, Donald Brenner – a very bright and talented man respected by all in the legal community – was ‘caught’ by Research provided to ROBBINS – presiding over what we believe - any reasonable person would evaluate as an extremely bias action and subsequent decision - in favour of a fellow BC Supreme Court - Judge Madame Justice Koenigsberg accused of fraudulent transfer of marital property by a plaintiff holding judgment against the Judge’s husband a man convicted of being a Nazi in the State of California. Not only did the Chief Justice permit his fellow Judge to get away with breaking the law he charged $50,000 in “Costs” against the lawyers acting for the plaintiffs with the California Judgment. In our opinion a disgraceful display of judicial interference that must not be repeated.
We say this – in part because the Vancouver Foundation - implicated by inference by our question 3 (top Judge/ethics) - visited our site at and most specifically for a week a one half after the expose of the disturbing Koenigsberg matter – and just prior to the surprise resignation of Chief Justice Brenner.
At ROBBINS New Trend we would advise henceforth that the Vancouver Foundation cease and desist the practice of including the Chief Justice of the BC Supreme Court on its Board of Directors as the Vice Chair as the public does not appear to support it.
What would newcomers to Ellis Island say about this?
Moreover, although we did not ask this question specifically, we would also believe that the Publisher of the major newspapers in Vancouver - Kevin Best ought not to be a member of the Board of Directors of the Vancouver Foundation for many of the same reasons that it is a bad idea for BC’s top Judge to sit on its Board (We also note that Mr. Best has a professional relationship with the Vancouver Board of Trade – as does Evi Mustel – so-called independent public opinion pollster – whose ex business partner Joan McIntyre sits on the Executive of the BC government).
On the other hand, British Columbians are far more comfortable with a “large charity” distributing charitable dollars, (in part because they don’t have confidence in the BC Liberal government’s ability to equitably do the job). In the case of the Vancouver Foundation where 10’s of millions of BC tax payer dollars are given by the provincial BC Liberal government each year – which community charities receive the benefits?
Who is the registered owner of this charity with hundreds of millions of dollars in investments, the BC’s top judge – media boss and investment dealers in tow?
In our Entertainment question relating to which ONE province British Columbians would most like to travel if they were able – Quebec comes up the big winner, with Nova Scotia not far behind. It would appear from these numbers that although Quebec may be seen by some British Columbians as the most politically ‘self centered’ of the Confederation family – they are still perceived as the most attractive and desirable to visit – there’s nothing like history to capture the imagination. (44%) of decided British Columbians choose either Quebec or Nova Scotia as the place they would like to travel, while (54%) select Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces, while these two regions possess only one third of the countries population.
Moving into the New Year and 2012 with by-elections scheduled in two strategic ridings in the province in early spring, it is clear from this ROBBINS New Trend poll that Christy Clark and her governing BC Liberals are in very serious trouble. The by-elections set to take place in ridings which have long been considered BC Liberal safe seats (Port Moody Coquitlam), (Chilliwack-Hope) and have attracted well over 50% support in provincial elections from both of these ridings in better times for the BC Liberals. With former BC Liberal and Christy Clark godfather - Joe Trasolini and BC New Democrats set to win the Port Moody seat with 45% support – up for grabs – in the middle of Christy Clark’s former riding – the BC Liberals cannot afford less than 35% support.
The Chilliwack region of BC’s Fraser Valley reflects (30-35%) support for the BC Liberals with the BC Conservatives running comparable support. BC New Democrats are running in the 30% support region in the same strategic calling environment and could win here with a competent candidate. A bad loss in –Chilliwack- and in -Port Moody Coquitlam- is something that Christy Clark and her BC Liberals cannot afford – by-election or not, as the by-elections encompass a population area approximating 60% of the voting population with outcomes likely to affect important public opinion polls which will inevitably follow.
It is also interesting to note that the BC Liberals are heavily in debt. The Party has the most cash and assets but are weighed down by major financial liabilities (based on 2010 financial statements)—and may have difficulty raising political contributions as donors look to the BC Conservatives for relief in the face of a pending BC New Democrat government. (Is there any chance that Elections BC could make their website particularly as this relates to determining financial contributions more user friendly please).
In contrast, the BC New Democrats have less cash than the BC Liberals, but have fewer liabilities and possess clear hard assets which can be leveraged for additional cash to run an election - if necessary. The prospect of forming government, particularly the likelihood of a significant majority government – will certainly help with future fund raising prior to the next provincial election in May 2013. The big corporate banks like BMO Bank of Montreal and BMO Financial are clear BC Liberal financial supporters – and appear to have put themselves in the position of losing major accounts in the Province of British Columbia and being replaced by the BC worker supported Van City Savings and Credit Union as holders of institutional bank accounts such as WorkSafe BC when government changes to the BC New Democrats in 2013.
Quite obviously, John Cummins BC Conservatives’ are a provincial party surrogate of Stephen Harper’s federal Conservatives, and many of the behind the scenes financial relationships --$$- involving the big banks headquartered in Toronto/Ottawa are going to want to give some serious thought to future business—in BC-particularly after the dismal year on the TSX in 2011 that has the country’s financial district holding their breath moving ahead to 2012.
This ROBBINS New Trend poll provides tremendous insight into the future of politics in BC --going forward-- including some of the background dealings most British Columbians never hear about – simply because they are not part of the 1% who control or have commanding oversight over the province – or the other 5% who are paid to ensure that the 1% apparently do as they please.
We will be observing and reporting and where necessary including relevant information about the personal lives of political actors to provide the BC public with greater knowledge about the type of people who are calling the shots in the Province of British Columbia in the hope that this will help to put a stop to the conspicuous freewheeling unethical behavior of many players in the political (and legal) scene in the Province of British Columbia.
Robert De Niro - Meet The Fochers picture here.
Glen P. Robbins

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