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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics January 6, 2014
  Jan 06, 2014

Question #1
From the following two response choices offered, which one political party in Canada BEST reflects your personal values and principles?
Canada’s New Democrats    39.24 %
Canada’s Conservatives    38.24 %
Question #2
(Entertainment)Would you like to see Barack Obama re-elected as President of the United States in 2012?
Yes    47 %
No    34.5 %
In terms of “values and principles” between the Government (Conservatives) and Opposition (New Democrats) – this ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) poll is even steven(s) at around (39%) support for both. The outcome of this poll is compared to the results from the most recent federal general election in May 2011 where Canada’s Conservatives realized (39%) of the vote, and Canada’s New Democrats realized (30%) of the vote, and to a recent Harris Decima poll (“HD poll”), following the recent death of New Democrat leader Jack Layton, where both Conservatives and New Democrats realized (33%) in popular support. In both the general election and the “HD poll” – Canada’s Liberal, Green and Bloc Quebecois parties were included, in this ROBBINS poll only Canada’s New Democrats and Conservatives are offered as response choices exclusively to the issue of “personal values and principles”. In addition, a general history of voting in Canadian general elections from 1993 to present – is provided for context.
A “value” is generally defined as the worth or importance of something, particularly in terms of ethics. A “principle” is the fundamental truth(s) (a conclusion based on evidence) – or rules which form the basis of an individual’s belief system.
This Glen P. Robbins – ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) poll compels the hypothesis that in a Canadian culture of party preference based on (personal) “values” and “principles”, where Canada’s New Democrats, without challenge from other generally recognized centre to centre left party responses –namely - Liberals, Green, or Bloc Quebecois (the BQ Party exclusive to the Province of Quebec) are seen to gain in support from Canadians in terms of “values” and principles” while Canada’s Conservatives may or may not also gain support.
This poll has implications for continued discussions of party merger between Canada’s New Democrats and Liberals in consideration of the current leadership race just beginning for Canada’s New Democrats – and in (important) light of recent comments from former Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien – inferring his blessing of such a merger. This discussion is also relevant in context of Mr. Chretien’s and to a lesser extent former Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin’s ability to govern for a decade from 1993 through to 2005 as a consequence of vote split among centre and centre right forces in the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives parties, regionally evidenced in this ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) poll entitled “BC political parties in relation to Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative merger” located:
In Canada’s 2004 general federal election, a merged centre right Conservative Party of Canada under Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper achieved (29.5%) of the popular vote –and then in the 2006 Canadian general federal election won minority government with over (36%) of the popular vote. The original version of the Conservative Party, the Reform Party achieved (19%) in popular support in the 1993 federal election.
During the 2003 – 2011 period in Canadian federal politics, the late New Democrat leader Jack Layton took his party from (15.5%) to (17.5%) through to (30.5%) in popular vote in the May 2011 federal general, an astounding achievement – in the process forcing the once mighty federal Liberal party which once received over (40%) in the federal election in 1993 under former PM Jean Chretien to less than (19%) in popular support in 2011 under leader Michael Ignatieff. In that 2011 Canadian general federal election, the combined popular support for the Liberal, Bloc Quebecois and Green Party was (29%).
The Liberal Party of Canada is currently where the current Conservative Party was nearly two decades ago. If the same vote split conditions occur on the centre left of the political spectrum in Canada as they did – and for as long as they did on the centre right from 1993 to 2006 is it fair to say – that so long as Canada’s New Democrats and Liberals do not merge, Stephen Harper can expect to remain Prime Minister with a majority government for at least another ten years?
This ROBBINS poll provides some insight into the current contest for the federal New Democratic Party leadership resulting from the death of Jack Layton –a respected person – and political considerations relating to a potential merger with the federal Liberal Party. Obviously the other major Canadian political party, the Liberal Party of Canada has some serious soul searching to do. There is evidence in this poll based on an assessment of Canadian’s personal “values and principles” relative to party preference of 2 of the 3 major party’s - - that if the support for federal New Democrat “values and principles” evidenced in this poll translated to voter support, than it follows that either the Federal Liberals, Federal Greens, Bloc Quebecois, or ‘Other’ (other party, non voter etc.) respondent would have contributed to the 30% higher totals for Canada’s New Democrats beyond the vote attained in the most recent federal general election of (30%).
The percentage of respondents that did not select one of the two response choices (parties) offered is (21.5%) or (26%) below the percentage of voters who voted for a party other than the two offered in question 1 - in the May 2011 general federal election in Canada. This loss – apparently directly benefits Canada’s New Democrats – at least in terms of “values and principles”.
Though unrelated to the period considered in this ROBBINS poll the recent “HD poll” placed Canada’s New Democrat’s at (33%) in public support with the federal Liberals, Greens, and Bloc Quebecois included – representing roughly 10% more popularity than from the general election total (30%) following the death of New Democrat leader Jack Layton - and 16% less than the total for Canada’s New Democrats in terms of “values” and “principles” in this ROBBINS poll - where the federal Liberals, Greens, and Bloc Quebecois are not included. The total for Canada’s Conservatives in this poll is approximately (39%) which is a similar total to what they achieved in votes in the most recent federal general election but 16% higher than the support achieved in the recent “HD poll”.
The amount achieved in this poll by Canada’s New Democrats is beyond the scientific margin of error of the amount achieved by way of votes in the May 2011 federal general election.
Canada’s New Democrats achieved the highest correlation with respondent’s “values and principles” in their (new) home base of Quebec (52%) and lowest in Alberta (31%). Canada’s Conservatives correlate on “values and principles” best in Alberta (61%) and lowest in Quebec (17%). Conservatives continue to realize positively with respondents in Ontario (44%).
Canada’s New Democrats and Conservatives combined in this ROBBINS poll in terms of “values of principles” among Canadians features highest saturation response in Alberta (92%), Saskatchewan (90%), Ontario (88%), and lowest in Quebec (69%), and British Columbia (74%). Canada’s Liberal Party would want to seriously consider the saturation numbers evidence from all provinces – but most seriously from Canada’s largest province – Ontario.
Support for “values and principles” of Canada’s Conservatives:
British Columbia – (36%), Alberta (61%), Saskatchewan (54%), Manitoba (42%), Ontario (44%), Quebec (17%), Atlantic Provinces (37%).
Support for “values and principles” of Canada’s New Democrats:
British Columbia – (38%), Alberta (31%), Saskatchewan (36%), Manitoba (41%), Ontario (34%), Quebec (52%), Atlantic Provinces (42%).
Contributing Respondents by Province (Margin of Error):
British Columbia 525 (4.24%), Alberta 114 (8.77%), Saskatchewan 50 (12.65%), Manitoba 55, Ontario 537 (4.23%), Quebec 226 (6.52%), Atlantic Provinces 135 (8.43%). Spoiled: (42)
Methodology – This is a random telephone poll across the nation of Canada conducted by Glen P. Robbins and Associates on behalf of ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) between September 6 – 14, 2011, of 1,642 Canadians. The margin of error is 2.42% plus or minus – 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence. An honourarium for this poll was provided by Jim Van Rassel – proprietor of New Trend Optical in Port Coquitlam – 604 942-2008. Any other contributions remain anonymous as request of the donor.

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