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August 2021 Canada Poll - Leaders/Party, Election, Guaranteed Income & More
  Aug 15, 2021

Question #1
Support by Leader & Party as at August 14, 2021 ROBBINS Sce Research (1998):
Trudeau/Liberal    34 %
O’Toole/Conservative    30 %
Singh/NDP    21 %
Francois-Blanchet/Bloc (Quebec only)    7 %
Paul/Green    3 %
All Other    3 %
Question #2
Are you personally concerned about the Covid virus or any other variable of it as you go about your day to day life?
Yes    35 %
No    55 %
Undecided    10 %
Question #3
In your opinion should the Trudeau Liberal government open the border completely with the United States as it was prior to Covid - before calling a federal general election?
Yes    51 %
No    36 %
Undecided    13 %
Question #4
In your opinion, is it “Important and necessary” that Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government calls an election soon?
Yes    28 %
No    58 %
Undecided    14 %
Question #5
(Push) There are concerns among many Canadians that with the end of the CERB program coming later this year, and inflation rearing its head in the United States and Canada, many Canadians may not be able to pay their bills. Would you support a Guaranteed Income Pilot Project where eligible Canadian citizens could opt into a program providing $1,200 per month guaranteed, with any total earnings over $35,000 being paid back to Canada Revenue up to the amount of the guaranteed income or $14,400, and with savings from redundant programs at federal and provincial levels would be used to pay for the Pilot Project?
Yes    45 %
No    46 %
Undecided    9 %
Commentary
Top (3) provinces and support for Trudeau/Liberal: Atlantic Provinces (42%), Ontario (38%), Quebec (33%). Bottom (3) provinces and support for Trudeau/Liberals: Alberta (20%), Saskatchewan (22%), British Columbia (30%).
Top (3) provinces and support for O’Toole/Conservative: Alberta (48%), Saskatchewan (34%), Ontario (34%). Bottom (3) provinces and support for O’Toole/Conservative: Quebec (19%), Atlantic Provinces (28%), British Columbia (29%).
Top (3) provinces and support for Singh/New Democrat: British Columbia (28%), Manitoba (24%), Saskatchewan (21%). Bottom (3) provinces and support for Singh/NDP: Quebec (12%), Alberta (18%), Ontario (19%).
Not a big surprise here. Mainstream polling (and my own ROBBINS internals) have had Trudeau hovering around (35%) (ED: where 40% is a likely majority). Mainstream has Trudeau and Liberals around 6.5% ahead of Conservatives, while I have that lead at (4%). Mainstream suggests the pool of support for a prospective Trudeau/Liberal election majority is above the navel ---while ROBBINS suggests it is below the buttock (ED: either one).
Provinces with the (3) highest gYesh (concerned) response(s): Atlantic Provinces (42%), Quebec (40%), Ontario (34%). Highest (3) gNoh (concerned): Alberta (72%), Saskatchewan (70%), British Columbia (64%).
Clearly the majority of Canadians are NOT personally concerned about the Covid virus or any other variablec in (their) day to day life. I am left to wonder about the (10%) Undecided as some of the respondent anecdotes from Undecided suggests that gconcernh about Covid isnft only about being made ill from the Covid virus or variable of it. (ED: economy etc. see guaranteed income question herein).
Provinces with (3) highest gYesh border first then election response(s): Saskatchewan (68%), Alberta (63%), Manitoba (54%). Provinces with (3) highest gNoh: Atlantic Provinces (54%), Quebec (47%), Manitoba (39%). Again, the decent sized Undecided features anecdotes suggesting that some of these respondents donft agree with the assumption in the question that the border be opened in conjunction with an election being called thereafter.
We achieved what we wanted to know and that is - with so much of the Canadian population living near the border to the United States and the end of Covid as the threat it was (or remains for some) and the relief wanted by Canadians relating to getting their lives eback to normalf (ED: please stop with new normal - simply donft use it - find another term - quid pro quo? Is that still being used?? LOL)) an open border becomes the official indicator. I donft believe Canadians see an eopen borderf with conditions like vaccine passports etc. is an indication of a successful reopening.
Provinces with (3) highest gYesh election is important and necessary --- soon response(s): Atlantic Provinces (41%), BC (35%), Quebec (29%). Provinces with (3) highest gNoh: Alberta (74%), Saskatchewan (71%), BC and Ontario (62%).
Justin Trudeau is going to have to be careful about the timing of an election call. It is NOT important and necessary to Canadians. When compared to our previous question proposing an open border first and then a general election I would rate support for an election at one in three Canadians, just less than the Prime Minister's current national support.
I suspect that some to many Canadians are aware that an election may be forthcoming although this awareness would appear to be brought about by media trial balloons, and not with any explanation from Trudeau on why an election is necessary two years after the last one? It must be related to Covid one way or another. What does Trudeau say is the cause of this anticipated election?
I believe Trudeaufs numbers are good and he might be successful calling an election, but something tells me he might get bit on the butt - by voters, if he doesnft provide the reasons for the election call (ED: although a decision devoid of reasons may make him a good Canadian judge (LOL)). If memory serves me, a television pollster Nanos Research used eUnimportantf and eSomewhat Unimportantf in relation to a proposed election call - with that total around 54-56% (Unimportant to one degree or another). I choose to include necessity with importance - for me a tougher standard to achieve with far less ambiguity. Nearly (6/10) (net) respondents say gNoh while nearly (7/10) decided respondents say No.
All in, pretty mushy ground of support at this point for an election call.
Provinces with (3) highest gYesh to Guaranteed Income Pilot Project: Atlantic Provinces (55%), Quebec (52%), British Columbia (47%). Provinces with (3) highest gNoh: Alberta (67%), Saskatchewan (64%), Ontario (50%). By Party: Liberal (73%), Conservative (17%), NDP (76%), Green (81%), Bloc (27%).
In our ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) British Columbia poll dated June 16, 2021 we angled the Guaranteed Income question against the looming prospect of robotics taking over many industrial jobs @ $1,600 per month - a $35,000 per year ecapf and earliest eligibility at 28 years. That question attracted (43%) Yes and (32%) No.
In this Canada poll with no age referenced and at $1,200 per month, BC is (47%) Yes and (41%) No. It is interesting to note that Ontario is (42%) Yes, a nice percentage in a e40% is goodf world, but not as good when the No is (50%) No. Among Ontario, Quebec, BC, Atlantic Provinces and Manitoba respondents gYesh is just under (47%) with gNoh at near (43%). The lower gYesh in Alberta and Saskatchewan averages occur at a higher percentage (28%) when Trudeaufs current support in those provinces (21%).
Recent - Margin of Error 2.718%
GPR
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