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October 6, 2020 BC Election 2020 Results RSR, PST Cut, + Senior Beds, Debate? Police type, Expand private auto (ICBC), Birth Date Abortions?, Mental Illness
Breaking News - RSR ROBBINS declares John Horgan BC New Democrat Majority Government on Low Turnout  Oct 06, 2020

Question #1
BC Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson has pledged to cut the BC Provincial Sales Tax by an entire 7 percent in Year 1 and 3 percent of Year 2 if he is elected Premier? Do you support this policy?
Yes    51 %
No    49 %
Question #2
BC NDP Leader John Horgan has promised to spend BC Tax dollars to develop hundreds of senior care beds sufficient that each Senior has his or her own room. Do you support this policy?
Yes    82 %
No    18 %
Question #3
If you had only one to choose which would you prefer?
BC Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson’s cuts to the BC Provincial Sales Tax costing the BC Treasury $6.8 Billion    38 %
BC New Democrat Leader John Horgan to spend $1.6 Billion over 10 years to provide more Senior beds    62 %
Question #4
How likely are you to watch the debates for this BC Election?
Very Likely    3 %
Likely    8 %
Unlikely    44 %
Very Unlikely    45 %
Question #5
How important is the type of police force your city or town has - be it provincial, city or federal (RCMP)?
Very Important    29 %
Not so Important    71 %
Question #6
Would you seriously consider a plan to expand private auto insurance in British Columbia?
Yes    46 %
No    48 %
Question #7
Although this subject is federal - in involves hypothetically BC Medical Services- Would you agree to BC Medical extending funding for abortions to include up to and including the date of birth of the child?
Yes    9 %
No    91 %
Question #8
How important are extra government resources for people with mental illness (to you)?
Very Important    84 %
Not Very Important    16 %
Question #9
Which leader & party to you support and would you vote for - if the election were held today?
John Horgan/BC NDP    41.59 %
John Wilkinson/BC Liberal    33.63 %
Sonia Furstenau/BC Green    8.85 %
Trevor Bolin/BC Conservative    3.54 %
(Undecided)    12 %
Question #10
Which leader & party to you support and would you vote for - if the election were held today?
John Horgan/BC NDP    46.74 %
John Wilkinson/BC Liberal    37.79 %
Sonia Furstenau/BC Green    9.95 %
Trevor Bolin/BC Conservative    3.84 %
Commentary
Question 1 reveals that a slim majority of British Columbians support the BC Liberal cut to BC Provincial Sales Tax. Support is lowest on Vancouver Island (35%) and highest in the Okanagan/North/Kootenays @ (61%). The largest population group Vancouver to Surrey BC supports the Provincial Tax Cut closest to the outcome @ (50%-50%).
Without any doubt any policy funding that helps Seniors in care will be well supported in the Province of BC - particularly in light of the many deaths due to China Virus among BC Seniors.
Once we compare Andrew Wilkinson’s cuts to the Provincial Sales Tax to Horgan’s plan for Seniors care including reference to cost - Wilkinson’s tax cut support fades and Horgan’s continues to shine above Wilkinson, (but also loses some support).
I note that during the polling period Wilkinson announced a Seniors Care plan of his own. Coupling this cost to his Provincial Sales Tax cut - one can see Wilkinson is willing to spend liberally. On the other hand those many BC voters that pay little attention to detail - might confuse Wilkinson’s version of Seniors care in BC with Horgan’s - thus placing his PST cut in the Trump position.
On its face this BC debate question screams Trump/Biden fallout. One might have expected - as I did - that it would produce a line up of respondents citing the recent US presidential debate as cause for a general lack of enthusiasm, (unless these “Likely” percentages are acceptable).
What I do know is that only (23%) of Undecided ‘Voters’ from my subsequent leader and party question (3% overall) are “Very Likely” or “Likely” to watch the debate. I don’t believe debates matter - the whole knockout punch thing and such has ‘likely’ become passe. You never know, but I expect John Horgan could recite lullabies throughout his part in the debates and still win the Election in a couple of weeks.
The effort to determine how many viewers watched or streamed the 2017 Election debate is not perfect. BC doesn’t keep good detail. - I am guessing it wasn’t too impressive. Nevertheless 11 percent of 2,000,000 (2017 Voters) is 220,000 - that seems pretty good to me (“very likely”, “likely”). The very likely number of 60,000 if that's all that watches the debates (3% of total Vote), may not bode well for Andrew Wilkinson unless he really does something very special.
Unfortunately for Mr. Wilkinson I believe BC Green Leader Sonia Furstenau is more charismatic than he.
Obviously policing is important to BC Voters. The type of police force is not so important however, so long as the “police do a good job”. Voters quite literally expect the police to always be perfect. It is a tough job.
The issue of transitioning from a Surrey RCMP force to a City force was raised in this BC Election by Andrew Wilkinson over the last couple of polling days. I put BC NDP support at (48%) to BC Liberal support at (38%) in Surrey. Good for the BC NDP relative to 2017, less so for the BC Liberals. Two seats are crossing over to the BC NDP in Surrey.
Andrew Weaver's seat is going NDP in wealthy Oak Bay on the Ocean in Victoria (very nice) - and so will Andrew in one way shape or form after the BC NDP win.
I believe the BC NDP will win in New Westminster Queensborough - and Nathan Cullen will win in the North. I say this despite knowing how efficient the BC Liberal vote is in every Election. If each party has an equivalent force of troops on the ground with consistent vigour and passion the BC NDP will need to win the popular vote by (2%) at least.
So in my estimate right at this moment in time - in the BC Election - John Horgan & BC New Democrats have 46 seats - an increase of 5 - one from BC Green and four from the BC Liberals. At least.
Breaking News - Glen P. Robbins and RSR ROBBINS now predict a John Horgan BC NDP majority government. We base this on our belief on these percentages, some other evidence from other pollsters and our belief that voter turnout may be scant and the possibility that the real Undecided may be as low as (6%).
With the City of Surrey heading BC toward a BC NDP majority its first in nearly a quarter of a century - Wilkinson’s efforts to rescue the RCMP there - look lacklustre on support alone. In fact a big BC NDP win in Surrey - will most certainly cause the executioner's sword to fall upon the RCMP in Surrey. A shame really given the force had so much promise just a few short years ago.
The one saving grace for Wilkinson is that more voters in Surrey on average want more competition in the basic category of automobile insurance monopolized by ICBC at this point.
In my professional opinion it is too tough unwinding the change of police forces in Surrey already in the works. That horse is out of the barn now, just as certain as New Westminster Queensborough is out BC Liberal hands. LOL. With 8% of British Columbians Indo Canadian and 4.5% Sikh, I expect Federal NDP Leader Singh (BC Election General) will sweep affected areas.
If memory serves me my Surrey poll on this subject during the municipal election there had the RCMP support just under (40%). A real knock out poll punch-helping Doug McCallum win the mayor’s chair - and propelling the Surrey RCMP to the rear view mirror.
Since Wilkinson has called for a Referendum in Surrey (the Province must give final approval on any change to the police force) - then the Election outcome 2020 will tell us what we need to know about the policing situation in Surrey BC. Why would a BC NDP majority government - put any political capital into stopping the cessation of the RCMP as a police force in Surrey BC.
Citizens see good policing - as difficult a job as it is - as something they have a right to expect. I believe generally over (50%) and often higher of British Columbians have a high regard for police throughout the province. This poll suggests one police force is generally as good as another so long as there is some level of confidence/competence to the police force.
ICBC is in some trouble with its credibility and its fiscal condition despite a hint of reprieve with these numbers despite being under (50%). Frankly, I think the whole brand leaves voters wanting something different. A change. The Crown Corporation cannot afford another hit or scandal - or accusations of bad faith, particularly not locked in a war with the Trial Lawyers of BC who are missing out on $900 million in easy contingency fee largesse.
That will finish ICBC. The Trial Lawyers are looking themselves for that big knock out punch to ICBC - or where or where might it be? LOL.
If private insurance had a more compelling case to make to British Columbians, and could get them to pay attention - they might be in a better position to expand into competition into the basic insurance aspect of ICBC. Wilkinson promising more competition - is too flimsy, private insurance needs to say it can compete in basic insurance taking on an equal amount of risk. I don’t hear that.
AG David Eby announced a rebate from ICBC to premium payers - some non premium payers claiming participation for every British Columbian in the proceeds. Kind of silly I think. Dumpster fire indeed. I believe ICBC - fault or no fault---has nothing but trouble in its future. Too long - too controversial. The BC NDP made their ICBC ‘baby’ in 1972. That ‘child’ has become a crack addict of late, only some major type of rehabilitation will sustain it going forward, and heaven forbid, not a real huge scandal please. Really huge.
This question was intended to determine the line in the sand over the period of time an abortion would be acceptable in British Columbia. Currently in so called progressive BC - there is little appetite for an expansion into how long - along- a woman may have a government funded abortion. The date of birth is unacceptable. Overwhelming majority in BC Canada bodes well for ACBarrett - nominated to US Supreme Court by US President Trump and the opportunity to roll back some of the law currently on the books - and dispute as to whether some of these laws are settled or not.
Another medical question - this time on mental illness - sparks overwhelming support for extra government resources for people with mental illness. Anecdote suggests those who said “No” believe all kinds of resources are put into mental illness in BC. Become mentally unwell in BC and find out how large the black hole actually is however. Government claims attention and resources all of the time - I suggest its more public relations than reality particularly with 20% of patients in Fraser Health mental health care in the lower mainland are people with professional backgrounds. Something wrong with that picture -- and these are 20% full load medication.
Watch for a potential human rights claim on this subject… that will expose how negligent and reckless the government is on this account and shock the BC Public conscience.
Consistent with other mainstream pollsters showing Horgan’s NDP with a huge lead over Andrew Wilkinson - this poll is not disputing a solid lead for the BC NDP - but not of 15-18 percent.
This RSR poll reflects a lead of only (8%) for Horgan’s BC NDP, but considering the high percent of respondents who voted in 2017, and who are undecided now - but unlikely to watch leaders debate (US presidential down 40% from expectations) - makes me speculate that this Election may not have a high turn out.
However Media is reporting that 500,000 mail in ballots have been requested by BC Voters - with Kieth Archer head of Elections BC revealing that 58% of eligible voters and 61% of registered voters casting a ballot in 2017 - a decent turnout - one has to wonder how many Voters will actually turn out this time.
I would say in context that since Horgan has been Premier the number of negative comments about the BC NDP are much lower. I think British Columbians simply think Horgan and the BC NDP have earned a new majority mandate, and given the relatively smaller number of Undecided - early in the campaign is testament to this theory.
(I note a mainstream poll published a week ago suggested Undecided at 31%).
Last week 3.5% MOE.
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