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August 2020 Presidential Poll - Trump v Biden, Trump/Pence v Biden/MObama, Coronavirus, Trump saved Lives?, Economy/Law and Order, Voting Method, Rocket to Mars, Stimulus
  Aug 04, 2020

Question #1
Coronavirus: From the following response choices - who is most to blame for the death of Americans from Coronavirus? “{ }” {National Total}
China    66 %
Not China    12 %
More than one country    14 %
Undecided/All Other    8 %
Question #2
U.S. President Donald Trump banned travel from China January 28, 2020. Dr. Fauci associated with Coronavirus in the news said that the ban wasn’t necessary while former Vice President and Democratic nominee Joe Biden called the president a racist for the ban. There is dispute as to how many American lives Donald Trump saved with the ban - or if he saved any at all. Do you believe Donald Trump's China travel ban saved American lives?
Yes    71 %
No    23 %
Undecided/All Other    5 %
Question #3
From the following response choices which one best reflects how you feel your community, local, state and federal government handled the Coronavirus emergency?
Good    52 %
Not so Good    33 %
Undecided    15 %
Question #4
Which response choice best reflects your judgment of Media’s communication or reporting of Coronavirus data and news?
Conflictive, chaotic & inconsistent    52 %
Clear Concise and Informative    31 %
Undecided/All Other    17 %
Question #5
Who's better on the (1) Economy and (2) Law & Order - (combined)?
Donald Trump, Republican    62 %
Joe Biden, Democrat    32 %
Undecided/All Other    6 %
Question #6
From the following response choices offered, which method of voting would you insist be put in place this 2020 Election?
American(s) must attend to polling places with appropriate ID    67 %
American(s) should be able to ‘mail in’ their vote because of Coronavirus-    24 %
Undecided/All Other    9 %
Question #7
Which stimulus package from the limited response choices provided - best represents that which you support the most?
One Trillion $$ over one year    38 %
Three Trillion $$ over 3 years    25 %
Ten Trillion $$ over 10 years    19 %
None of These    9 %
Question #8
If offered, would you register in a Federal program where you were provided $2,000 per month guaranteed, with the opportunity to earn another $1,200 maximum in each month with each dollar earned thereafter deducted from the guaranteed amount?
Yes    31 %
No    60 %
Undecided/All Other    9 %
Question #9
Who do you currently support for President in November 2020?
Donald Trump    50.43 %
Joe Biden    45.10 %
Question #10
From the following Tickets for 2020 President & Vice President, which do you support right now?
Donald Trump/ Mike Pence 2020    51.06 %
*Joe Biden/Michele Obama-(2020)    46.32 %
Question #11
Do you support the New United States Space Force & the current mission to test for life on the Planet Mars?
Yes    60 %
No    23 %
Undecided/All Other    17 %
Commentary
1.7% Margin of Error declared, 95% confidence.
Background to this ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) for RSR Polling & Surveying:
States Involved with 2016 Voting Power (millions of people): California (14), Texas (9), Florida (9), New York (8), Pennsylvania (6), Ohio (5.5), *Illinois (5.5), North Carolina (4.5), Michigan (4.5), Georgia (4), Virginia (4), Washington (3.3), New Jersey (<3) the larger populations Trends discovered from outcomes extrapolated to statistical likelihood from the 2016 result. Trendlines applied to 2016 Voter turnout were applied to Illinois data.
What is most interesting is how well U.S. President Donald Trump is performing not only States he won, but in States where he was thumped by Hillary Clinton boosting his National totals.
I predict Donald Trump’s vote will increase among 2016 State of California for President Voters by 1,400,000 up to the first 138 million voters and further predict that among new voters whether through new eligibility or among persons who did not vote in 2016 Trump will average at least (50%) as against Biden.
Compared to 2012 total voters and conservatively increased to 145,000,000 2020 Voters, using new data I have raw support for Donald Trump at (50%) and raw support for Joe Biden also at (50%) on any amounts above 138,000,000 Voters.
The State of California alone brings Donald Trump v Joe Biden another (1%) Nationally reassessing The President of the U.S. at (47.4%) from 2016 Vote Outcome. The State of New York brings Trump 650,000 new Voters or another one half percent Nationally to (48%) from those two States without applying any new voters used in overall support assessment.
Based on original 138,000,000 Trump will gain 320,000 from the State of Virginia, 185,000 from the State of Washington, 170,000 new Voters from the State of Florida, 100,000 from the State of Texas, 120,000 from the State of New Jersey, 100,000 from the State of Michigan, 50,000 from Pennsylvania, 30,000 from North Carolina.
Donald Trump attracts an increase in National Voter Support of (2%) from the top 13 most populous States. This includes 5/13 States Trump lost, 4 very badly and one of those 5 States California, having a large influence on the National total considering the State of Texas’s inclination to disinterest in the vote of late.
Democrats are going to have to prove that Trump is worse now after nearly 4 years as President as he was in 2016, because the vote totals Trump received in 2016 in some of these more populated States seriously undermined his total percentage vote in the end. Trump may not win California, or New York and Illinois but he will increase support in those States versus Biden no matter.
But he may win New Jersey and Virginia. (45%) in the State of Washington is an important standard of support to hit for Trump higher than George W. Bush’s totals just less than that - as the ‘war president’ seeking re election in 2004 v John Kerry (GPR was on radio night before 2004 Election (Canada) calling Bush win, while every other pollster including another on the radio with GPR was crowing for Kerry).
Trump/Pence are projected at (51%) to (46%) to Biden/MObama. In previous polling I have conducted using former First Lady Michelle Obama, she upticked the White vote for Trump or Trump/Pence but sliced out some ground gained by Trump among visible minorities.
Trump should be expected to gain about (2.7%) Nationally from 2016 non White Hillary Clinton Voters. I expect he will win another (2%) Nationally from White Voters 2016, very slightly less than that in Trump v Biden.
Based on U.S. Election 2016 here are Biden’s anticipated losses for 2020: State of California (1,300,000), State of Texas (8,000), State of Florida (350,000), State of New York (400,000), State of Pennsylvania (190,000), State of Ohio (120,000), State of North Carolina (130,000), State of Michigan (240,000). State of New Jersey (230,000). Regular Polling has Biden way ahead of Trump. Based on 2016 I have his campaign leaking.
In my view Democrat Joe Biden needs a big name like Michelle Obama to have his White House Ticket hitting the ground running. Americans will need to get to know Kamala Harris, Susan Rice, and other names of people I cannot readily remember as vice presidential partners on his Ticket. This will take too much time.
Furthermore, although the regular press including cable have in the past weeks floated polls suggesting Biden is 12 or 13 percentage points ahead of the President. Each one more than the other compounding the plastic silliness and manipulation of these organizations. In their scenarios what does an unknown or dubiously qualified VP choice do to Bidens numbers?
Be serious. Imagine Michelle Obama added to a 12-13 percent lead? The former First Lady would surely welcome the opportunity to join with Biden in such heady circumstances wouldn’t she?
Press trapped in its own plastic.
In our Polling, Biden is slowly sinking and needs someone of MObama’s stature to save him from drowning in November beginning in those US States he is expected to win.
(95%) of Trump/Pence supporters blame China for “the death of Americans from Coronavirus” {48%}, while (36%) of Democrats blame China {17%}. (0%) of Trump/Pence supporters chose “Not China”, while (31%) {14%} of Biden/MObama supporters chose “Not China”. (3%) of Republicans responded “More than one country”, while (28%) of Biden/MObama supporters chose that response choices {13%}.
Blame China was higher in the early stages of the “Coronavirus War” at over (70%) but as I recall there may not have been an escape lane provided in “More than one country”.
Republicans are near unanimous for Trump in recent vote published in Media recently (95%) (snap) as are Trump/Pence supporters in their condemnation of China. The Democrats are split in blame.
In this polling question as in many others herein, - there is an absolute wall of support for Trump on various subjects where Democrats take divergent views. Trump/Pence and Republican Team are all on the same page on the Coronavirus as China is concerned.
Nearly every (99%) {49.5%} of Trump/Pence supporters believe President Donald Trump “saved American lives” with his ban on travel from China (GPR highest ever to baseline), while (1%) was Undecided. No Trump/Pence supporter selected “No” as a response (under one half of one percent goes to zero). In my earlier polling on this subject absent the perplexing mainstream news and polling on the subject (or near the subject), I suggested this alone could put Donald Trump and Mike Pence in the White House again.
(35 percent) of Biden/MObama supporters also believe President Trump “saved American lives”. At this point in escalation of questioning of respondents - from point of data analysis, I would call this one third of Democrats the “Unheard Voice”. This significant minority of Democrat voters culled from 2016 - and salted and shaked by GPR- to perfection of prediction-is unknown to Cable News on the left - and unknown to Cable News on the right.
There is no mention or reference or consideration of these Democrats who clearly believe US President Donald Trump saved lives. These are common sense Democrats - many who live in rural regions of the State - and will vote Trump over 70% in that 18% of the Voting Population. Biden needs to be in the rural regions to poll up to higher national totals.
I believe Trump has a lock on 6.5-7/10 of these rural voters. I also believe - as I saw in earlier polls a year or so ago that Trump is trending up in Counties of slightly higher populations - say over 1,000,000 as to 900,000 type of example. I don’t believe mainstream news even considers these voters. Kind of sneaks up on you doesn’t it?
(53%) of Trump/Pence 2020 supporters {26.5%} and {57%} of Biden/MObama supporters {25.6%} ‘feel’ their (sic) “community, local, state and federal government ‘handled’ “the Coronavirus emergency” “GOOD”. (31%) of Trump/Pence supporters responded “Not so Good” {16%} while {34%} answered “Not so Good” {17%}.
Moving the question off Trump’s or his Administration, or the White House handling of Coronavirus, and putting it on government at each level, which obviously was core to the issue, actually produces some unanimity among both party and leader supporters, both sides well over (50%), and Democrats over (60%) decided “Good”. This places Trump well into the (50%’s) as well through causal inference and simple logic you can’t have it both ways--supported (de facto) by the Democrats, including I might add the Common Sense Democrats.
(63%) of Trump/Pence choose the response choice “conflictive, chaotic & inconsistent” to describe their judgment of “Media’s communication or reporting of Coronavirus data and news” {32%}, while (45%) of Biden/MObama supporters negatively judge the Media similarly {20%}.
(49%) of Biden/MObama supporters judge the Media as “clear concise and informative” {22%}, while (18%) of Trump/Pence supporters judge the Media similarly {9%}.
These numbers reflect badly on Media coverage of Coronavirus data and news. Once again - a high majority of Trump/Pence, Republicans in the vast majority are clearly dismissive of “Media’s communication or reporting of Coronavirus data and news”, while a high minority of Biden/MObama feel the same way as those Republicans.
(98%) of Trump/Pence supporters select Donald Trump, Republican as “better” on ‘the (1) Economy and (2) Law & Order {50%}’, with (0%) of them choosing Biden. Again a stunning (24%) of Biden supporters {11%}, choose Donald Trump, Republican over Joe Biden, Democrat, while (72%) {32%} choose Joe Biden as “better”. Imagine all those Biden supporters not choosing him, and choosing Trump instead. Why not just choose Trump?
The Democrats have likely handed Trump/Pence re election over these two issues with many American Voters 2016. The Media seems to have deluded the Biden campaign over his level of support on these subjects likely for their own benefit.
(Forty eight percent) of Joe Biden (*Michelle Obama) Democrats support in person attendance with appropriate ID over ‘mail in’ vote because of Coronavirus {22%}. An astounding scant (3%) of Republicans support it {2%}. (Forty six percent) of Biden/MObama supporters support attendance with ID {21%}. (Ninety percent) {46%} of Trump/Pence supporters support the response choice “Americans must attend to polling places with appropriate ID”.
And again Republicans - at least 9/10 Trump/Pence supporters certain about method of voting - attendance with “appropriate ID” while nearly one in two Biden/MObama supporters also in support of this method.
(67%) of Donald Trump, or Trump/Pence 2020 supporter/voters choose “One Trillion $$ over one year” {33.5%}, while (18%) support “None of These” {9%}, and (12%) support “Three Trillion $$ over 3 years” {6%}. (9%) of Joe Biden, or Biden/MObama supporter/voters choose “One Trillion $$..” {4%}, (42%) of Biden/MObama supporters choose Three Trillions $$... {19%}, (41%) support Ten Trillion $$..{19%},
(60%) of Biden/MObama supporters support Federal program Universal Income {27%}, which (8%) of Trump/Pence supporters also choose {4%}. (There is commonality between these (8%) ‘Republicans’ and the choice of 3 Trillion dollars over 3 years in the preceding question). (34%) of Biden/MObama supporters don’t support such a Federal program {15%} while (89%) of Trump/Pence also do not {45%}.
GPR
-30-

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