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RSR Press Release: Large Random Poll, Trump v Biden, Tariff China, Sue China, Masks at Voting Places? American Exceptionalism and more.
  May 16, 2020

Question #1
All Eligible Voters, Decided Respondents, “fairly” certain of support choice today. Who are you “most certain” to vote for in November 2020?
Donald J. Trump, Republican    52.26 %
Joe Biden, Democrat    46.84 %
Question #2
Do you support the U.S. Department of Commerce placing additional Tariffs on China in relation to economic security requirements including matters involving the Corona virus Pandemic?
Yes    70.98 %
No    27.61 %
Question #3
Do you support potential Federal and State mandates requiring the wearing of masks to voting precincts and locations and social distancing in line ups to vote in the upcoming presidential election November 2020?
*NO    62.68 %
Yes/Undecided/All Other    36.17 %
Question #4
Do you support amendments to Federal laws to exempt the US Government, State governments or Individual groups and organizations from Immunity laws and to permit them to sue China for Corona virus?
Yes    71.78 %
No/Undecided/All Other    29.32 %
Question #5
“American Exceptionalism” is an expression first advanced by post world war 2 leader Joseph Stalin meaning that Stalin believed the only country immune from communism in the World, was the United States. Recently, Trump economic adviser Billionaire Mark Cuban told Fox News that he believed that not only would the US rebound from the Corona virus - American Exceptionalism would continue. To wit: the US would never become a socialist country. Do you agree with this idea that the United States is immune from communism - socialism?
Yes    78.87 %
No/Undecided/All Other    19.72 %
Commentary
US States involved in this random sample RSR poll. *(1) California, (2) Texas, (3) Florida, (4)New York, (5) Pennsylvania, (6) Illinois, (7) Ohio, (8) Georgia, (9) North Carolina, (10) Michigan. *“Current ranking of U.S. States by population” (Wikipedia).
Note that general information provided on population asserts circa 2010, Since that assessment, Florida has gone from 4th highest population to 3rd. New York from 3rd to 4th. Pennsylvania from 6th to 5th. Illinois from 5th to 6th. Georgia from 9th to 8th. North Carolina from 10th to 9th & Michigan from 8th to 10th. See any coincidental migration?
In the 2016 US Election for President (Trump v Clinton) (based on {100%} gross up), Hillary Clinton achieved {51.11%} of the Vote, while President Trump achieved {48.49%}, better than {2.5%} for Clinton. Over these Top Ten State in Nov 2016 Clinton won by (4%).
According to CNN Cable News, the 2016 US Election outcome reveals Hillary Clinton at {48.5%} with President Trump attracting {46.4%} of the US vote. (ROBBINS called President Trump’s numbers at (46.5%) or one tenth of one percent above what CNN published for Trump). Clinton beats Trump by > (2%).
The ROBBINS Sce Research Poll evidencing this 2016 prediction - a week out-also revealed a stronger support for Trump than Clinton per respondents or (49%) support.
I have documented that I believe Comey’s last ‘appearance-interference’ occurred just days before Election Date. Comey’s final appearance then helped Clinton more than Donald Trump blunting the Green vote siphon of Democratic votes and fluffing up the Libertarian score.
I say this because I do not see it often if ever in the news. I just remember thinking at the time ‘shit..this asshole again…& did no one see this’? Given what we now know I don’t want to memorialize the events, but when you want to be the best - you have to feel the business, and have trust those White Rhino Instincts (WRI).
So in the 2016 US Election moving from vote outcomes from the Top Ten States to a National tally Hillary Clinton loses one percent and President Trump gains one percent.
We place President Trump’s extrapolated Election Total for 2020 (up to 99%) @ (53.24%).
In our RSR ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) April 23, 2020 Survey of US Voters across the Top 8 populated States with Michigan added in as the 8th - then calculated up to (100%) we have President Trump @ (55%).
Adjusted from (100%) to (99%) through the wizardry of cross multiplication @ (54.45%) a difference of (1.21%) between Survey and Random Poll and an average ‘support’ of (53.85%) for Trump comparatively speaking.
Also by comparison I note that former US President Obama achieved {52.9%} of the 2008 US Vote while Republican John McCain achieved {45.7%}.
On the face of my research I believe that US Election 2020 will be similar to the 2008 Election except that the Republican Trump will be on the winning side of the equation and former Vice President (Democrat) Joe Biden will be on the losing (McCain) side of that same equation.
(Goosebumps, right?)
In his 2020 Election Victory, President will achieve 95 Basis points (nearly 1 percent) higher of the Election Vote than former President Obama did in 2008.
From Real Clear Politics list of mainstream pollsters. Real Clear Politics to the period ending May 13, 2020 averages President Trump approval at 46.5% (decided), our RSR ROBBINS winning total for 2016.
In Real Clear Politics head to head match ups Trump & Biden, CNN scores it {51%} to {46%} for Biden. YouGov scores it {47%} to {43%} Biden, CNBC scores it {47%} to {44%} Biden. Monmouth scores it {50%} to {41%} Biden (sorry that’s laughable), IBD/TIPP scores it {43%} to {43%} - a tie, Emerson scores it {48%} to {42%} Biden, USA Today scores it {50%} to {40%} (again, laughable), CNBC scores it {47%} to {43%} Biden.
Here are some the polling outcomes from these same firms days prior to the 2016 US Presidential Election: CNN scores it {49% to 44%} Clinton. YouGov had no presence in 2016 but tends to suffocate Trump approval. NBC scores it {47% to 41%} Clinton, Monmouth scores it {50%-44%} Clinton, IBD/TIPP averages {44%-45%} Trump, no evidence of Emerson, Fox News scores it {48-44%} Clinton, Reuters score it {43-39%} Clinton, Economist scores it {45-41%} Clinton. On average {3%} below Trump actual vote outcome from 2016.
So, current Real Clear Politics has Biden on average ahead of Trump by {5%}.
In this ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) - “For all Your Marbles Poll”, I have Trump (6%) ahead of Biden, a difference between ROBBINS and Real Clear Averages of an estimated {11%). WOW.
General impressions underneath the surface of the percentages.: Trump supporters much more energized than Biden supporters, the same thing I identified in 2016 - and pre Comey interference just days prior to the 2016 Election.
Trump’s in the game to win 2020, he plays everyday. By any fair and reasonable assessment is the best and most powerful politician in the World. Whether or not one likes him or his policies is what politics is all about. Calling him names and telling stories - is not a substantive response from Democrats to Americans who know what real meat looks like.
My job is to most fairly and accurately what I believe is the Public Opinion in America.
My job is not to promote a contest for ad buy - and most importantly the high wire act of this endeavour is that it is my job to more accurately predict outcomes than the mainstream. 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 all private ROBBINS victories - all the t’s ad i’s crossed and dotted to ensure valid legal dissemination.
Now 2020, again every mainstream pollster has Biden ahead by a lot, and here I am, country boy borne in a Saanich, British Columbia manger.
Very very exciting.
Biden isn’t in the game he has been sidelined by his own stumbling, and Coronavirus. Trump has a solid wall of support - I believe from my Surveys (of late), and from this Random Sampling Poll that Trump has a near certain (50%) of US Voters 2020 who are certain to vote for him in November, with a strong current of others fairly to almost certain.
If Trump were able to have a rally now - there would be a line up miles and miles long. He would need to two shows like Elvis in Vegas just to accommodate demand.
Whether Trump rolls up his total from there is more about Biden.
But beyond that - Trump gets the economy back after this storm and watch for (60%) of the November 2020 going to Trump. Make book on it (lol).
Arresting all his friends couldn’t stop Trump.
Mueller couldn’t stop Trump,
Impeachment couldn’t stop Trump -
Impeachment couldn’t stop Trump -
- a 65% media (de minimis) bias dead against him couldn’t stop Trump.
Corona virus won’t stop Trump, nothing will stop Trump in my opinion.
Certainly not Joe Biden. Certainly not the Democratic Party-
- and most certainly not - the mainstream media.
Its my view that the American Voter wants Trump to beat all of these institutions and the press as they have come to like Trump better than ‘them’.
Trump’s like Quarterback Tom Brady, Biden is like Colin Kaepernik. Tom Brady is the best quarterback to play the game - and there are 10 excellent competitors for that designation -
Kaepernik went to the Super Bowl (lost) so I will not say anything negative about him - but suffice it to say he isn’t Tom Brady and he isn’t in that group of 10.
To have a prayer in 2020 Biden needs to (somehow) be Joe Montana or Terry Bradshaw tomorrow.
Does Biden really want to be the presumptive favourite as every mainstream pollster would contend, or does he want to follow the Glen P. Robbins path of having a prayer - see himself as the underdog - encumbered by Corona virus and the mistakes of his former boss Barack Obama and that FBI Executive “ilk”?
Standing all alone up against Trump. Imagine the controversial High Noon Gunfight Trump v Biden in Dodge City. Trump with dozens of howling supporters, Biden all alone, asking Americans for his support.
Biden has the natural advantage over Trump in this poll because of California’s usually majority (Democrat) contribution to that States’ vote and its further contribution to a limited State assessment.
Former US President Ronald Reagan ran up the score nearing {60%} in the 1984 US Election Total in large part because he won California, his home State.
The mitigating factor for President Trump is in the fight for the State of California. His handling of Coronavirus - a massive health issue, has really helped his fortunes. Further, I believe Counties like Orange County, a traditional Republican stronghold in California, which didn’t support Trump worth spit in 2016, will sweep for Trump as they did for Reagan in 1980 and 1984.
(Glen P. Robbins loves La Quinta, California - you know they call him the La Quinta Cowboy)..didn’t Harold Robbins live there.?
I also believe Trump may win New York State. New Yorkers' believe Trump delivered for them on Corona virus. I would take odds and bet Trump to win New York State.
This from State of New York polling:
“Biden and Trump are even in New York. Sexual assault allegations that have come up against Biden - shamed of late for hiding in his basement (Coronavirus), make me believe that a surprise win for Trump in his native New York is not out of the question. Somewhat Ironically, Biden is going to have resolve Tara Reade with New Yorkers - even if it that is the only State it occurs within.”
Trump will achieve (45%) or better of the 2020 Election Vote in California. The President leads Biden by nearing double digits in Texas, Florida, Ohio, Georgia and North Carolina. Trump leads Biden by (5 percent) or better in Pennsylvania. Trump has (4 percent) lead in Michigan and is behind Biden by (2 percent) in the State of Illinois in my professional prognosticating opinion (ppo).
Biden has a voting army - they just aren’t motivated. They aren’t unified by any stretch of the imagination (see also media bad bluffers). Trump’s army is huge and wants to win so badly suburban moms can be seen salivating believing that the Democrats want to force their families into foreclosure.
(This Poll only captures the first days of the mega Trillion Democratic stimulus bill - though my question in this poll relating to an economic comeback provides great insight to this new government intervention proposal from the House (Speaker Nancy Pelosi) into the Pandemic Crossfire).
(The Suburban wife not supporting Trump is an urban (kind of) myth in my opinion designed for news to give a rationale that a contest is at hand, when it really isn’t).
This Random poll I am declaring at at 1.78% margin of error -at Random number of respondents 2,851 digit dialing. Covers 8 days of recent political activity.
Cost replacement @ $178,187.601 U.S. $. ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) has produced over 200 U.S. polls since 2003, picking W Bush in 2004 correctly, Obama 2008, 2012 correctly, and Trump correctly in 2016, with a Cost (Value) Replacement based on Total number of respondents of $24,596,000 US.
There are another 1000 Polls or so from Canada and BC similarly assessed at $43,203,000 US.
These Value Replacement Assessments do not include the Predictive Value of our Polling ie Presidents, Prime Ministers, or our timely question engineering which I believe is the best in the World as well. I would also assert that no value has been yet placed on the value added by polling site changes to capture and promote every name or issue over nearly 2 decades in the United States, Canada and the World - over 15,000 pages of timely polling questions - a large Internet field to be captured.
I would speculate that this ‘book’ of polling and the capacity to dominate links associated with polling and various historical political parties - with viewing demand bursting at the seams -(just on my acoustic guitar), and commercial application presents a Foundation for a multi Billion dollar enterprise.
I am prepared to stipulate that Trump will achieve the support reflected from these Top Ten Populated States - nationally in November 2020, notwithstanding the length of time from this poll to the Election. If I am correct again predicting Trump - the apparent mainstream underdog, all best are off the Cost Value Replacement $$$ proposed.
Why the Democrats are not turning on China Corona virus - while Pelosi and her House majority make demands for another $3 Trillion spending bill, a bill I believe actually helps Biden and draws a line in the sand between he and the Democrats and Donald Trump - - is beyond me.
The American people want blood from China (blood not intended to suggest violence but more as mockery about exaggerated media headlines) - its real and its alarming.
A circumspect but emphatic calling out of China from the left satisfies that large minority of Democrats unhappy with China - and leaves Trump with a decision to make in response.
Calling Trump a racist for banning travel from China on January 28, 2020, another decision I believe seals his November re election was wrong on the Democrats part. Just how long it take the Democratic Party to figure their way out of this will prove most interesting.
The response outcome from My question on masks, suggests to me that on a Corona virus timeline the November 2020 Election is off limits to any ‘disguise’.
Near (63%) “No” among the United States with the Top Ten populations is an overwhelming outcome in defence of the sanctity of revealing oneself to Vote.
It isn’t the same discussion, but I might speculate that online voting particularly in the midst of so much evidence of government/court skullduggery may not do much better.
American Voters are sick of political flim flam in my opinion. If I had to call it out - I would suggest that Democrats have overplayed nearly every political hand they have ‘manufactured’ since Trump was elected in 2016 - The Democrats are the Party that has to do some introspection if they want a chance in November, not Trump, his Party is a unified force.
Third time I have laid that law down on the Democrats. This isn’t competing!
Once again, this China Corona virus issue attracts a formidable response of American Voters who want to see American Litigative Ingenuity brought to bear against China.
China isn’t misunderstood as it was in the Nixon period, it is a country that Americans probably didn’t trust before Corona virus.
Now, there is virtually no trust between the American Voter and China. More than a few Americans remember the ambush of the Japanese at Pearl Harbour. China is starting to attract the same negative sentiment I suspect that the then overly ambitious Japanese did nearly 80 years ago.
Look at the Japanese now - much better understanding of goings on outside their country. China remains somewhat locked in its own head, like a person intelligent enough to reason, but doesn’t because they think its weak, or don’t have the capacity for spatial reasoning (seeing only their own self interest in any enterprise).
Advocating for one’s own nation is the number 1 job of the President. Trump does this very well.
However, power on the world stage demands that one party understand and know about the other, not move about like a cybernetic robot - or zombie like character. China has half its population not in the economic game to any noteworthy extent, while America though dealing with a thin bench right now has the hottest economic capacity.
China has never exposed its own deficiencies in areas like human rights and social development. Like a person in psychological denial - the lowest form of defence mechanism (humour the highest).
The problem here though is that China’s screw up in the Coronavirus matter - the cause of much death and cost worldwide has a solid unimpeachable group of ante China support in the United States.
Doing a big business deal with China without reparations to the US People - included in the discussions won’t be successful - leaving that as some weight against the stock market rise, and leaving Trump to pull off a real Houdini before November 2020 or at least get back far enough to satisfy Americans that they are out of danger and on the right path with hope for big economic wins in 2021.
Coronavirus has pushed Socialism from a nearly one in three Voter back when “AOC” was really flying high. She still matters because of the high percentage of Democratic supporters who see the world from the (very) left, less so because of the government emergency spending that speaks significantly to her causes, or at least the intent of her causes.
Having written from that side of the equation for the centre left including predicting two - count em 2 Obama elections I am fully aware of the weight that ideologues bring to the table, as those type voters are less mushy than those in the middle (necessary to win).
NOW, I am predicting a Donald Trump win of significant proportions, as Corona virus has smothered the emotional flame of communism and nearly 40% of Biden’s supporters reject American Exceptionalism.
I believe a lot of Biden’s supporters don’t want to go back to work, if they can otherwise exist, get by, flourish - as they see fit.
This brings us to the question regarding the concept of Universal Benefit Payment.
Nearly (41%) accept the proposal under a Universal Benefit Payment type arrangement.
In my opinion near (41%) is a high number of American Voters willing to make the Yang change. Coronavirus has created a new American Voter - someone who wants a Guaranteed Income and opportunity to work as well but be close to home.
(62%) of the respondents who answered “Yes” are women.
With money flying out of the treasury to Americans - obviously Universal Guaranteed Income is an idea that has arrived. The fact that (17%) of respondents who responded “Yes” support Trump in this poll means that Trump cannot shove this aside as some communist plot. Many Trump and Biden supporters in anecdote believe the Social Security system cannot be sustained. This is a notion that is a growing trend.
The Universal payment is going to attract a lot of moms, and more than a few dads, willing to forego the economic possibilities of a college degree for the opportunity to be in the community with the family. The Corona virus has brought out a lifestyle change in the minds of many American voters who don’t believe Social Security can survive and will take the money now.
Eighteen percent of current Biden supporter would seriously consider changing their support from Biden to Trump while 7 percent of Trump support would switch from Biden to Trump. This may be the political find of this Election.
Why a switch?
From anecdote, the Biden to Trump switch is as one might expect - returning a great economy to its form in the short period of time to Election is seen as a magic trick by many Democrats. It is seen as much more than that by a high percentage of Trump supporters. The Trump supporters who say they would switch to Biden are more complicated I suspect - they believe that Trump can only achieve this by printing money, and not just terrific leadership and would only do so to attract Democrat voters, something that offends them.
So Democrats want money always in short supply - to rain from the heavens, while a very high majority of Republicans know the public knows it will eventually have to pay for it.
A campaign could be on this question - for Trump to take some of the steam out of it - he will have to stick handle like Montreal Canadien great Jean Beliveau.
-30-
GPR

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