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Glen P. Robbins - La Quinta Cowboy - State of California - Surprise Trump versus
  Feb 22, 2020

Question #1
2016 Outcome (altered by GPR for baseline reference): State of California (SCE - Riverdale, Orange Country, Los Angeles, San Diego)
Hillary Clinton    61 %
Donald Trump    33 %
Question #2
BEST describe NOW as?
Democrat    39 %
Republican    29 %
Independent    28 %
Question #3
Support (For): State of California 2020?
Trump/Pence 2020    44 %
*Bloomberg/Clinton    37 %
Question #4
Support for?
Donald Trump    49 %
Pete Buttigieg    30 %
Question #5
Support for?
Donald Trump    48 %
Amy Klobuchar    37 %
Question #6
Support for?
Donald Trump    45 %
Bernie Sanders    44 %
Commentary
Trump average support by Race in State of California (using RSR ROBBINS Juultimate formula): Caucasian (46%), Latino Hispanic (43%), Asian/Other (47%), African American (46%).
Democratic average by Race: Caucasian (41%), Latino Hispanic (43%), Asian/Other (29%), African American (30%).
Trump wins on average vote of each Race demographic, and in Herculian fashion (“Hf”) easily wins support among Asians and African Americans in the U.S.’s largest State (of California) who Tom Bevan of Real Clear Politics suggests is a State Trump doesn’t seriously consider winning.
To be clear my own conservative polling style (rather be accurate than pretty) has never had US President Donald Trump at better than (27%) support among the African American demographic and more frequently at just under (20%) against a backdrop of historical support from that pool of people.
I have heard on Cable News a percentage like (50%) (likely Fox lol) support for Donald Trump therefore, I wouldn’t be the first. Keep in mind as well that the African American population in the State of California is 5.5% of the whole.
Republicans have a dismal record of attracting the African American Vote- Trump got 9% or less but was 2% higher than Mitt Romney, and 3% of John McCain. Nevertheless “something is happening here” in California among African American Voters - that may or may not be occurring all over America. A shift in African American support to MAGA. Its either a wave or wishful thinking by some.
I have had Latino/Hispanic support for Trump nationally and specific to State polling in mid 40’s and occasionally higher. Mainstream polling appeared to have his support among Latino/Hispanics in the mid or high (20’s) over the same comparative.
Trump Thumps (“TT”) all Democratic candidates among all Racial Lines (“RL”) except Bernie Sanders (the best Montgomery Burns imitation I have seen-paradox-conundrum?) in the State of California.
In terms of complete disclosure on African American support. First I ascribe a Margin of Error of 2.5%. This margin must then be weighted against the fact that the African American population in California is lower than among other demographics. I have for this political poll set Race Multiplier (“RM”) as follows: (50%) Caucasian, (30% Hispanic/Latino), (15%) Asian/Native/Islander, (5%) African American.
Trump (Trump/Pence 2020) highest Caucasian support v Buttigieg (49%), highest Latino/Hispanic support v Buttigieg (45%), highest Asian support v Buttigieg (54%), highest African American support v Buttigieg (50%). Democrat et al highest Caucasian support Sanders versus Trump (45%), highest Latino Hispanic support Bernie Sanders versus Trump (44%), highest Asian/Other support Sanders versus Trump (35%), highest African American support (38%).
This RSR ROBBINS Polling period commenced after the recent New Hampshire Democratic primary revealing that Bernie Sanders was the Democratic front runner followed by Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar. Former front runner and Impeachment straw dog Joe Biden - placed 4th during the 1st 2 Democrat primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Trump, Trump Pence 2020 up (41%) from 2016 US Election Outcome (33%) (less than that in reality, (also see Clinton baseline slightly under actual)). Democrats (all) attract (65%) of Hillary Clinton 2016 totals.
I believe based on my impressions of US Voters State of California that Republican registration will increase while Democrat registration will decrease or remain the same. Trump now dominates with Independents many of whom voted for Hillary Clinton and may have been Democrats in 2016.
Somewhat ironically, I believe that respondents who early in our polling were supporting Bloomberg Clinton (near (43%)), (again, two thirds of Clintons’ 2016 achievement in State of California), abandoned that support by estimated (6%) that support appearing (at least as polling preceded) (and prior to debate where Cable consensus is that Billionaire Mike Bloomberg did poorly) -to transfer support over to Bernie Sanders whose original support in our poll was under (40%) while the hypothetical Bloomberg/Clinton was over (40%) to the point of Bernie Sanders support.
Is the Democratic machine so far out of synch with the public that its establishment would appear to be going against Bernie Sanders - because he is too progressive - when at the same time - 2016 Democrats for Hillary Clinton would be rejecting a “Bloomberg/Clinton” hypothetical 2020 Team and transferring that support to Bernie Sanders?
Are Democratic voters in the State of California - (and all over America) starting to look at Bernie Sanders as the heir apparent to Hillary Clinton, by virtue of his 2nd place finish versus her in the Democratic nomination process for 2016 presidential Election Cycle, believing he can make a good cause for a more equitable America - an objective those same Democrat voters cannot link to the Democratic establishment anymore?
Donald Trump, Trump/Pence’s 2020 (Ed: RSR is not affiliated with this campaign or any other) support is growing in State of California because of Trumps domination of Independents, many of whom I suspect were Clinton supporters in 2016. Michael Bloomberg was hurt by foolish float of ‘Bloomberg Clinton 2020 hypothetical Team’, later blown up by Hillary Clinton’s later announcement during this polling period that she wasn’t for the Team. Whomsoever floated that hypothetical - just changed the race for the Democratic nomination in my opinion - advantage to Bernie Sanders. Imagine in roller derby when one skater propels a lead skater forward (only inadvertently) (or was it).
If the Democratic Party and HIllary Clinton are against Bernie Sanders - Californians aren’t seeing it that way. Clinton supporters are beginning to accept her 2016 runner up (Bernie Sanders) as the next in line versus all other contestants.
Unfortunately, it may all be too late for Democrats - as Trump/Pence 2020 put America’s largest State in play for Republicans plus Independents.
Last week, telephone lists our RSR declaration 2.5% MOE.
GPR
-30-

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