Robbins SCE Research
Home| British Columbia Polls| Canada Polls| US & the World Polls| Contact| Register| Search| Donate
Trump/Pence 2020 v Warren/Biden 2020; Trump v Sanders (Jinping China, Putin Russia) Trade and Nat Security; Recession for Trump? Boycott Israel?
  Sep 07, 2019

Question #1
(Eligible Voters for 2020 (Declared) – (who) “believe it is important to Vote” (adjusted). Who did you vote for in 2016 (if you voted at all)? (Statistically adjusted for baseline without bias (“bwb”).
Hillary Clinton, Democrat    45.71 %
Donald Trump, Republican    44.76 %
Gary Johnson, Libertarian    2.86 %
Jill Stein, Green    0.95 %
Didn't/Couldn't Vote (2016)/Other    5.71 %
Question #2
(Actual Vote U.S. Presidential Election – (CNN Source) *(not CNN)
Hillary Clinton, Democrat    48.5 %
Donald Trump, Republican    46.4 %
*(Gary Johnson, Libertarian)    3.27 %
*(Jill Stein, Green)    1.07 %
Question #3
[Actual Vote U.S. Presidential Election – (CNN Source), States of Florida & Ohio 2016 (Combined) (as Between Trump Pence 2016/Clinton Kane 2016)].
Trump/Pence (Florida & Ohio 2016)    51.89 %
Clinton/Kane (Florida & Ohio 2016)    48.08 %
Question #4
((National Vote outcome if State of California 2016 is modified to reflect Vote Outcomes for Republican and Democrat Parties in that State – on average)).
Trump/Pence 2016 (adjusted pop. Vote)    47.19 %
Clinton/Kane 2016 (adjusted pop. Vote)    46.58 %
Question #5
((Push Question)) Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin of China and Russia respectively are (rumoured) and reported to be *ruthless and difficult negotiators. Of the following two political actors offered, who would you prefer be sitting across from these two leaders representing the United States on matters of Trade and National Security?
Donald Trump, Republican    64.01 %
Bernie Sanders, Democrat    26.62 %
Question #6
Would a recession in the United States benefit you personally?
Yes    7.04 %
No    87.99 %
Makes no difference to me    4.97 %
Question #7
Which of the following Issues is most important to you in your capacity as an eligible Voter in the United States (Presidential Elections every 4 years next Nov 2020?
U.S. Economy/International Trade/Domestic Border Security    50.19 %
Global Warming/Environment/International Human Rights    27.11 %
Obama Care/Health Care    22.71 %
Question #8
(Push Question) The country of Israel has long been an important ally to the United States. There are a number of Democratic legislators who want to Boycott and place Sanctions on Israel on their basis that Israel treats Palestine unfairly. Which response best reflects your sentiments on this subject?
It's shameful, I support U.S./Israel relations unequivocally and without any doubt    57.36 %
It makes sense, Israel is an oppressive State actor    32.56 %
I am indifferent to this subject    10.08 %
Question #9
If the November 2020 U.S. Presidential Election were held today, which of the following political tickets from the two main parties would you vote for? (National Prediction).
Donald Trump (President)/Mike Pence (Vice President), Republican Party 2020    52.79 %
Elizabeth Warren (President)/Joe Biden (Vice President), Democratic Party 2020    41.74 %
Commentary
History of 2012 and 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections specifically oriented to two so called bellwether Counties, namely Wood County in Ohio and Hillsborough, Florida. On the basis of data from 2012 and 2016 Elections and these two Counties, and other more current data privileged to RSR ROBBINS – we offer these numbers with an estimated Margin of Error represented at or about (1.75%) as a national representation. Suggested as Poll of 3,300 American Voters – data collection ending August 24, 2019. Margins of Error differ for specific SCE targets where stipulated to.
Background:
Business Investor writes September 23, 2012 that “Wood County (Ohio) votes don't pick parties, they pick winners. Residents of this suburban Toledo County have voted for the eventual winner in every presidential election since at least 1980”. (Reagan, Reagan, “HW” Bush, Clinton, Clinton, “W” Bush, “W”, Obama or 9/9 to 2008). (Actually 11/11 – 100%). Wood County has a population of 130,492. “Wood County is part of the Toledo Ohio Metropolitan Statistical Area.” Toledo Ohio has a population of 276,491.
In the 2016 presidential – in the State of Ohio, Donald Trump won [51.69%] of the Vote; Clinton [43.56%]. Libertarian Gary Johnson grabbed [5.06%], while Green leader leader USA – Jill Stein received just under national average @ [1.07%]. In Wood County Ohio in 2016 Donald Trump won [50.51%] of the Vote, while Hillary Clinton won [42.46%]. Clinton under performs in Wood County/Ohio by (2.53%), while Trump under performs in Wood Country/Ohio by (2.28%).
In the 2012 U.S. Election, Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney [50.67%] to [47.69%] in the State of Ohio. Obama under performed Donald Trump's Ohio 2016 Vote percentage by (1.97%), while (the loser) Mitt Romney over performed (2016 loser) Hillary Clinton's Vote total by (9.48%). Barack Obama over performed in Wood County/State of Ohio by (1.22%), while Mitt Romney over performed in Wood Country/State of Ohio by (2.67%).
In 2016 both the winner of the State of Ohio Donald Trump, and the loser Hillary Clinton, under performed in Wood County, while in 2012 both Obama and Romney over performed. Wood County has a predominantly Caucasian population (over 90%).
This poll – with support from Wood County Ohio (MOE 4.584%) and Hillsborough Florida (MOE 2.187%) - - data collection plus RSR ROBBINS estimates of data for purposes of expressing a national support score (adjusted) and without prejudice to any party or candidate – is considered on the basis of [73%] of Caucasians Voting in 2020 (as they did in 2016) [12% African American], [9% Latino Hispanic], & [5% Asian/Other]. The “Others” total in Wood County Ohio in 2012 was 2.41%, while in 2016 the “Others” totalled 6.13%. A difference of nearly [4%] - most of it Libertarian.
Business Insider writes in the same 2012 article that “Hillsborough County has sided with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960, with the exception of one.” (Make that two after Trump win in 2016 13/15 (86.67%)). “In 2008 Obama beat John McCain in Hillsborough 53 percent to 46 percent, besting John Kerry's (former US Secretary of State) 2004 results by seven percentage points. Kerry lost Hillsborough to George W. Bush 53 percent to 45.7%.”
Barack Obama received [50.01%] to Mitt Romney's [49.13%] in 2012 in Hillsborough, while Donald Trump received [44.65%] versus Hillary Clinton's [51.12%]. Based on this RSR Poll I predict Trump/Pence 2020 WILL receive (55.78%) of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Vote in Wood County Ohio, and (57.26% 'overall') in the State of Ohio (an increase of 12%).
The Democratic Party has no chance of winning Ohio in 2020.
Based on this RSR Poll I predict Trump/Pence 2020 scheduled to take (49.31%) of the 2020 Vote in Hillsborough Country Florida (up nearly 10% there) and (58.20% 'overall') in the State of Florida (up (14%), but 0.70% (70 basis points below Barack Obama's Vote Outcome in Hillsborough, Florida in 2012. The Margin of Error specific to Hillsborough, Florida places Trump between (47% to 52%).
The Democratic Party has no chance of winning Florida in 2020.
Other Evidence: The Federal Elections 2012 Election Results for the U.S. President, the U.S. Senate and the U.S House of Representatives indicates that in the 2012 Election Gary Johnson and Libertarian Party won [1%] of the American Vote. In 2016 Gary Johnson and Libertarian Party won just over [3%] of the vote, an increase from 2012 to 2016 of just > than 2%.
“In late September 2016, Johnson's support was placed at 8.6% by the “RCP” average of presidential polls and at 7.9% by the ' FTE”polls-only forecasting model.” (Center for Responsive Politics Sept. 23, 2016) “Gary Johnson and Libertarian Party received 3.27% of the national vote” (2016) (2016 Presidential Election Results, U.S. Election Atlas (February 26, 2017). The difference between the “RCP” average in 2016 mainstream polling and actual Gary Johnson and Libertarian 2016 Vote Outcome is {“RCP” minus 5.33%}. The actual factual difference between Gary Johnson Libertarian 2012 and Gary Johnson Libertarian 2016 is 2.27%. The (3%) difference describing nearly the fulsome amount of mainstream polling failure in 2016 in predicting “The Chosen One” (“TCO”).
“On Election Day” (U.S. Green Party Jill Stein) “finished in 4th with 1.07% of the popular vote”. (Federal Election 2016 Election Results for the U.S. President...) So for this first tier assessment (in context and considering this August 2019 RSR ROBBINS Poll Outcome) we remind readers that the Green (left) vote from 2012 (Obama) to 2016 (Trump) went from [0.36%] to [1.07%] nationally, while the Libertarian (right) vote went from [0.99%] to [3.28%], an increase of (0.71%) for Greens, and increase of (2.29%) (2.27%) to Libertarians.
“The Libertarian Party is a political party in the United States that promotes civil liberties, non intervention, laissez faire capitalism and shrinking the size and scope of government.” (“Current Issues” Libertarian Party. Archived from the original on May 7, 2015). No one who voted for the Libertarian Party in 2016 will be voting for any Democratic candidate in 2020 – the question remains how many of the 4,400,000 American Voters who voted for the Libertarian Party in 2016 will show up for Trump. William Wald was Johnson's running mate in 2016 for VP – he has stated he is running to win the Republican Party nomination. This exercise with others added is intended to vice grip another (3%) nationally to Trump/Pence 2020 – and that Political Power Machine's – new base line of (49%) (before counting all of the “W” Republicans who wouldn't vote Trump – who will now – and the new young voters – many of whom will as well) – before the Conservative and Moderate Democrats migrating toward the sure to be victors – Trump/Pence 2020.
“A “M” University opinion poll conducted on March 24, 2016 found Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson in double digits with 11%, while a CNN poll for July 16, 2016 found Johnson with...13%.” (“Images” (PDF).i2.cdn.turner.com).
In our RSR ROBBINS Poll published June 3, 2016 I asked the following question: “Of the following two response choices (for) (sic) Office of the President of the United States who do you prefer and would you support?” Response Outcome: “Donald Trump” (44.88%), “Hillary Clinton” (42.37%).
A second question asked in that RSR Poll: “Which of the following political-legal scenarios troubles you most?” Response Outcomes: “Secretary Clinton's email issues – private server potential for security problems”-(52%); “Donald Trump's vocal disagreement with a U.S. Judge of Latino background and Trump University” (problems)-(29%).
In our July 9, 2016 RSR ROBBINS Poll @ Question 2 (we) asked: “Which of the following candidates for President of the United States from the following choices offered do you currently support?” Response Outcomes: “Donald Trump” (35%), “Hillary Clinton” (31%), “Bernie Sanders” (14%), “Gary Johnson” (11%), “Jill Stein” (3%).
Trump's June 3, 2016 support versus Hillary Clinton in our RSR ROBBINS Poll – is (99.73%) of the total of Trump plus Johnson, while Hillary Clinton's support versus Trump in June 3, 2016 is (88.27%) of Clinton plus Sanders plus Stein.
One can see from the July 9, 2016 RSR ROBBINS Poll that on a generally accepted account of left and right parties – Trump, Republican support and Johnson, Libertarian support totals (46%) (near what Trump/Pence 2016 actually achieved). One can also see that Clinton, Sanders and Stein had (48%) - add back the 2 percent Stein loses (from RSR Polling) and Clinton and Sanders ought to be (50%) - but they aren't – they are (46%) - tied with Trump plus Johnson at July 9, 2016.
One can see that RSR ROBBINS had the numbers aligned 4 months earlier than the Election. Where did the (51.5%) Obama got – and (2.6%) Hillary Clinton lost - eventually go?
They may not have voted. Not voting is indifference in support of Donald Trump and not Hillary Clinton. Looking backward we can see that Johnson obtained [3%] of the (11%) given to him by any number of pollsters- leaving (8%) for Trump. This (8%) plus the (35%) provides Trump with only (43%) - OOPS Trump is short (3.5%).
In our question 5 from that July 9, 2016 RSR Poll we asked: “In your opinion which candidate for President of the United States, from the choices offered, will be best for the U.S. Economy?” Response Outcomes: “Hillary Clinton” - (36%), “Donald Trump” - (45%). On this question Trump's support is (96.77%) his eventual 2016 winning percentage. Hillary Clinton is (74.53%) of her eventual (losing) but higher 2016 popular vote. There wasn't enough confidence in Hillary Clinton's ability in the Economy to give her the presidency in 2016. James Carville – former President Bill Clinton's advisor and 'its the economy stupid' – came to haunt Democrats – with the surprise of Election of Donald Trump to U.S. President.
Our RSR Question 6 July 9, 2016 I asked: “In your opinion which candidate for President of the United States, from the choices offered will be best for the U.S. National Security based on both domestic Homeland Security and Foreign Policy...” Response outcome: “Hillary Clinton” - (43%), “Donald Trump” - (37%)
In this question – on U.S. National Security based on both domestic Homeland Security and Foreign Policy, Clinton kicks it into gear. She has experience as Secretary of State – Trump had none. Hillary Clinton scores (88.93%) of her eventual Vote Outcome from question 6. Trump. Trump received (79.56%) of his eventual Vote Outcome from this question. Trump averages from question 5 and 6 in the July 9, 2016 RSR Poll (against the statistical average of (46% + predicted) is Economy (45%), plus U.S. National Security (37%) or average (41%), with Clinton average using same method or (36%) plus (43%) - average (39.5%).
In our September (2019) RSR ROBBINS Poll 'Economy, Trade, National Security' trumps combined Global Warming/Environment/International Human Rights & Obama Care/Health care: “U.S. Economy/International Trade/Domestic Security Border-50.19%”
The increase in support for Donald Trump using (non identical but similar response choices) from 2016 to 2019 is (22.41%) from combination of those two July 9, 2016 questions. (On this increase alone I am able to again affirm my position to Declare a Trump/Pence 2020 win).
In our July 26, 2016 RSR ROBBINS Poll entitled “The Platinum Standard – U.S. President – Trump takes big lead over Clinton” we ask at question 3 (adjusted from question 2) “From either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump for President today who would you select?” Response Outcome: “Donald Trump” (48%), “Hillary Clinton” (41%). As @ July 26, 2016 RSR ROBBINS has Donald Trump (3.23%) higher than his eventual Vote Outcome @ November 2016 Election. (*A 7 percent lead for Trump over Clinton as at end of July 2016).
In “RCP” Polling Averages (always on the 'tele') average of mainstream polling circa May 2016 Trump v Sanders “I” scores Sanders {49%} to Trump {38%}, “Q” scores Sanders {48%} to Trump {39%}, “FN” scores Sanders {46%} to Trump {42%}, “V” scores Sanders {54%} to Trump {38%}, “C” scores Sanders {50%} to Trump {39%} with overall averages from RCP as at May 2016 of Sanders {49.7%} to Trump {39.3%} or over {10% (lol)} lead for Sanders over Trump. At July 2016 (and early August 2016) (same time period as RSR ROBBINS Polls showing Trump ahead or even versus Clinton) in Trump v Clinton “RCP” scores as follows: “L” scores Clinton ahead of Trump {45% to 44%}, “I” scores Clinton ahead of Trump {46% to 39%}, “M” scores Clinton ahead of Trump {48% to 33%} (lol), “N” scores Clinton ahead of Trump {47% to 38%} (lol), “FN” scores Clinton ahead {49% to 39%} (lol), “E” scores Clinton ahead {46% to 43%}, “C” scores Clinton ahead {47% to 41%}, “RI” scores Clinton ahead {43% to 39%}, “CN” scores Clinton ahead of Trump {52% to 43%}, with average for Hillary Clinton from mainstream polling {47.4%} to {40%} for Trump.
As at the end of July 2016 RSR ROBBINS scores Trump support (7%) ahead of Clinton, while RCP averages score Clinton support {7.4%} ahead of Trump, a difference of {14.7%}. At the end of July 2016 RSR ROBBINS was suggesting Trump had his ducks in a row – while Clinton was still fighting off Sanders to one degree or another – with only 14 weeks to go and 5 of those weeks summer time political malaise but with a very good performance by Trump at Republican convention under considered by pundits when speaking to that time period. (*The “L” west coast mainstream poll scoring Clinton ahead {45% to 44%} is considered an outlier by mainstream east coast cable news and castigated in that media as not believable). From this point forward mainstream news gets Clinton's unsuccessful Vote numbers pretty close but butchers Trump's numbers “bTn”.
Only the winner's (Trump's) numbers matter, and we can see how RSR ROBBINS had Trump's numbers right (over 3 months advance) as well as the late October – sniper like – deadly accurate - 2016 numbers. (Makes one think of the Puma or Cobra snake).
(Again, I would also note the mainstream polls Bernie Sanders numbers {10%} ahead of Trump in May 2016 with Clinton only {7%} ahead of Trump two months later.) For further context “RCP” mainstream polling average from May 2016 asserts support for Clinton ahead {56%} to {42%} Sanders support. “N” scores Clinton ahead {53%} to Sanders {45%}, “C” scores Clinton {51%} to Sanders {44%}. On average of mainstream polling at “RCP” circa May 2016 Hillary Clinton is ahead of Bernie Sanders in public support among Democrats by {11.4%}. May 2016 mainstream polls of Trump v Clinton at “RCP” score as follows: “I” scores Clinton ahead {45% to 40%}, “R” scores Clinton ahead {39% to 38%}, “Q” scores Clinton ahead {45% to 41%}, (another) “R” scores Clinton ahead {40% to 39%}, “A” scores Trump ahead {42% to 37%}, “FN” scores Trump ahead {45% to 42%}. So in May 2016 “RCP” aggregate of mainstream polls suggests (when Trump has already been nominated to lead the Republican Party & (Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders) are still battling – with hangover to come) – Bernie Sanders apparently has a better chance of beating Trump than Hillary Clinton to the tune of about {3%} nationally (lol). The mainstream press was already plugging for Bernie Sanders to her detriment – she was being cannibalized by her own supporters.
Now some of them are supporting Donald Trump – no foolin.
So in context of my assertion that Eligible American Voters (“EAV”) score Trump (22%) and better on Economy, Trade, International relations - NOW than we did in our polling in spring/summer of 2016, we asked this question on the subject comparing Donald Trump to Bernie Sanders, a Democrat who mainstream pollsters believed to be {11%} ahead of Donald Trump in 2016:
4. (Push Question) Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin of China and Russia respectively are (rumoured) and reported to be ruthless and difficult negotiators. Of the following two political actors alone, who would you prefer be sitting across from these two leaders representing the United States on matters of Trade and National Security? Donald Trump, Republican-64.01% Bernie Sanders, Democrat-26.62%
Our question 8 in this RSR ROBBINS Poll asserts the following: 8. If the November 2020 U.S. Presidential Election were held today, which of the following political tickets from the two main parties would you vote for? Donald Trump (President)/Mike Pence (Vice President), Republican Party 2020-52.55% Elizabeth Warren (President)/Joe Biden (Vice President), Democratic Party 2020-41.74%
On the basis of our internal estimate that Republicans and Democrats combined should obtain (96.5%) or better of Votes in 2020, I extrapolate a winning percentage to Trump/Pence 2020 @ (53.89%) versus (42.62%) for Warren/Biden 2020. If this (52.79%) (net) RSR Poll amount is compared to Question 1 baseline Donald Trump's popular support has increased (17.94%) through the question recital. If the decided percentage of (53.89%) is used against baseline, the increase is (20.32%) for Trump.
The mainstream pollsters averages for Donald Trump were at least {7.53%} lower than President Trump's actual 2016 achievement in the final days prior to that Election and {14.98%} lower in August polling. On balance mainstream polling undervalued Trump support {11.26%} in 2016. More current “RCP” mainstream polling from “H” and “R” (the latter alleged historically to be a Republican pollster) the average support for Trump based on is {48%} (not including mainstream with poor history to distort average). Based on the Margin of Error for these mainstream polls – Trump approval (different than support for President from hypothetical) is {51%} to {45%}.
If we apply the mistake factors of {7.53%} and {14.98%} from mainstream 2016 to the {48%} ascribed to Trump/Pence 2016 Vote Outcome we get an RSR adjusted score for mainstream of {51.61%} for Trump/Pence 2020 (slightly imperfect comparisons from Trump approval now to Trump/Pence 2016.) If we take the {14.98%} mistake factor and add it to Trump/Pence 2016 Vote Outcome we have {53.47%} support for Trump (similar to the Decided percentage of Trump/Pence 2020 versus Warren/Biden). If we take the average undervaluing of Trump support from 2016 mainstream polls of {11.26%} to Trump/Pence 2016 we have a support score of (51.62%) from mainstream pollsters 2020.
On the other hand, RSR ROBBINS has Elizabeth Warren (President) & Joe Biden (Vice President) at (9.69%) below Clinton (45.71%) from Question 1 baseline, and (13.94%) below Hillary Clinton's actual 2016 totals or average of (11.82%) below Clinton for Warren/Biden.
In August of 2016 mainstream polls had Donald Trump, Republican just over {40%}, in August 2019 RSR ROBBINS has Warren/Biden 2020 “hypothetical” at a similar percentage (slightly higher). RSR ROBBINS and mainstream America – at absolute opposites in public opinion. One of us is dead wrong about all about this
Mainstream pollsters have Trump approval {14.58%} higher now in August 2019, 14 months from the Election, than they did in August 2016, two months before the 2016 Election. Who will Hillary Clinton support? Bernie Sanders? NO. Joe Biden – NO/Maybe – Elizabeth Warren NO/Maybe, or, alternatively, will anyone want Hillary Clinton's support? The Democrats are screwed in 2020 without Hillary Clinton support (no Clinton's – vacuum) (Clinton's lightning rod) – and may be screwed if they going looking for it.
On the other hand, Donald Trump has to consider if the Hillary Clinton support (Obama support) he has – hiding in closets all across America- is real – and furthermore if he pushes to send her and her friends to prison over FISA et al – with they pull back. They may not vote (again). (At least other Republicans who could not support Trump – voted Libertarian) What message will that send to the Democratic Party?
There is a definite 5 percentage (Nationally) swing of gain to Trump support – and 5 percentage (Nationally) loss to Democrats.
Notes:
Israel is 'more groovy' in the minds of Americans - now than 10 years ago (early Obama). A noticeable minority still apparently hold (often vigorous) resentment against Israel for a myriad of reasons (harder core about 4,000,000 American Voters). Mainstream America will back Israel – as they believe they are backing the status quo – favour to this sentiment ebbs and flows and goes up and down depending often on which party is in the White House. Among many grievances and positions held by the alt right is the fact that the State of Israel Hawks with the Republicans – yet Jewish people living in the United States have of late voted predominantly Democrat – the cynics smell hypocrisy. This question is obviously a push question – I wanted a trend. Israel generally does well in my version of mainstream public opinion – but under Obama Israeli prestige in the United States began to sag a little (to alot) – (if memory serves me though a low percent (of support) historically may be around (30%) but seldom an 'against' anywhere near (50%)). On this – Israel is currently in the winners bracket among Eligible American Voters in my professional opinion – at this Time in American politics. Israel's recent test – vis a vis Congresswoman Rashida Tlaibl – permitted or not permitted – going or not going to visit her sick grandmother – finally not going – Is Israel a bad country or is Tlaibi a whiner/martyr? - shows Israel a winner. At one third (de facto) support is Tlaibi – necessarily a 'loser' – I would say not. And Donald Trump will be the new possessor of the Jewish Vote in America predicated on a do the right thing advocacy taking place in that community as I type (or some folks are going to be pissed (lol)). On its face – from straight assumptions from response choice outcomes – Tlaibi has some significant support for her 'cause' on this account according to this RSR ROBBINS Poll however not all of the respondents who go against Israel are left win – but, overall the muddy middle of the political bog where 30% of the Vote presidents - support for Israel.
Voting trends 1996 (Bill Clinton) to 2016 (Donald Trump):
According to information at Wikipedia in US Presidential 2012 {235,248,000} Americans were of Voting Age and {129,235,000} or {54.9%} of these 'eligible' Voters – actually caste a Ballot for a presidential candidate. In the 2016 US Presidential an estimated {250,056,000} were of Voting Age (Source: United States Elections Project) with {138,847,000} or {55.5%} of vote – an increase of (1.8%) from 2012 totals. The 2012 US Presidential decreased turnout by (3.4%) to 2012 from 2008. From US Presidential 2012 to 2016 Voting Age category increased by (6%) while Voter turnout increased by (8%) a (2%) increase benefit to Vote. This contrasts with Voting Age/Voter turnout numbers from 2008 to 2012 where Voter turnout dropped (2.3%) - and to 2008 to 2016 where Voter turnout increased by (5.7%). By the end of Obama's two terms – the American Voter was losing interest – or not excited – and Trump filled the vacuum – sufficiently and strategically to take the presidency. Back in December 2016 “B” News “reports” on “spending” with the “Federal Election Commission” “from October 20 through Nov. 28 (2016)”: Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton raised One Billion, on Hundred and Ninety One Million $(U.S.) (“1,191 M”) while Donald Trump raised Six Hundred and Forty Seven Million (“646.6 M”). Hillary loses and retains (0.63%) of her Total Money Raised (TMR) – “Cash on Hand”, while Trump wins and keeps (4.87%) of his money. Trump's business savvy is showcased in the campaign (and likely cause of alliance between Department of Justice and Washington media).
From 2004 to 2008 (Bush to Obama) Voter turnout increased by (7.1%), however from 2000 to 2004 (Bush v Kerry) Voter turnout increased by (15.9%) with Voter turnout increasing (15.9%) against Voting Age increase of (4.62%). Yet according to CNN.com @ November 11, 2016 it was presented to the public that 2016 was the lowest turnout in 20 years. On no basis can that assertion be proven true. In fact the worst turnout in 20 years is 2012 (Obama's 2nd term) where numbers of Voting Age increased (2.6%) with turnout negative (2.3%).
Overview to RSR ROBBINS POLL:
Question 1 fuses known respondents (“Survey”) with “New Voters” (either through age eligibility since 2016 or respondents who did not vote in 2016, but who represent they will vote in 2020). Question 2 depicts 2016 totals. Question 3 provides State of Florida and Ohio totals. Question 4 is a not a hypothetical question but rather a statistical determination adjusted for Voting by Race and represented by Glen P. Robbins to reflect 2016 standing with State of California - adjusted for historical Republican and Democratic scores (Hillary Clinton over performed in California (Democratic average in Cal) while Donald Trump under performed (Republican average in Cal). Question 4 hypothesizes that but for the State of California – Clinton/Kane 2016 would not have won popular vote and that arguments suggesting the College Outcomes established by the “Founding Fathers in the Constitution” should be set aside as undemocratic and popular vote put in its place as erroneous (and silly). To point, our RSR ROBBINS hypothesis reveals an adjusted popular vote for Clinton/Kane 2016 @ (46.58%) or a loss of (1.92%) from actual 2016 Election Outcome. On the other hand Trump/Pence gain (1.19%).
Question 5 our first non base line type question is a (push question) asking respondents to decide who is better to deal with China's President Jinping and Russia's President Putin established in the question recital as “ruthless and difficult negotiators” “on matters of Trade and National Security” - Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders are the two response choices. Trump thumps Sanders by score of 2 to 1.
On the basis of Trade and National Security Bernie Sanders attracts (now),(54.89%) of Clinton/Kane 2016 American Voters. On this subject matter(s) U.S. President Trump attracts (137.93%) or over one third more supporters than Votes he received in the 2016 Election. According to Berg-Anderson, Richard E. “Democratic Convention” “The Green Papers” Hillary Clinton received {55.2%} of the Vote in 2016 Democratic Primary, while Bernie Sanders received {43.1%}. Extrapolated to {100%} Bernie Sanders received {43.8%} of Democratic Party Vote back then. Question 6 puts to bed the witless proposition that Americans might want a recession in order to replace Donald Trump. The question is not framed this way – but rather with more assurance and certainty based on the predicate of self benefit. Put another way – American Voters are not going to 'cut off their nose(s) to spite their face(s)'.
“According to HBO (self interested sub State Actor) the Bill Maher Show (political – entertainment predominantly to completely 'left of centre'' receives an average of 4 million viewers per week.” “Expanding the scope to total day, Fox News snared an average of 1.4 million viewers to MSNBC's 852,000 and CNN's 557,000 (viewers).” “Fox (News) marked its 15th year as the highest-rated cable news channel...posting 2.8 million average total viewers in January 2017.” “MSNBC beat CNN in total prime time viewers, ranking sixth among all cable networks in January.” “CNN beat MSNBC, but trailed first place Fox News, in total daytime viewers.” According to the Online website “BT”: “Over the course of no more than a decade, America has radically switched (cable news) favourites (sic).” “CNN is out, Fox News is in.” “By 2010, Fox News has broken out of its southern heartland, colonizing markets in the Midwest and Northwest...” “In 2014 Fox News seems past its prime.” “Energized by Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, Fox News is back with a vengeance.” “By 2018...Fox News rules the roost.”
Question 7 asks which of (3) response choices “is most important to you”. The first response choice “U.S. Economy/International Trade/Domestic Border Security” has (3) three elements to it. The 2nd response choice “Global Warming/Environment/International Human Rights” also has (3) elements to it. The 3rd response choice “Obama Care/Health Care” has two elements to it. After Applying Random statistical analysis and adjusted Random to statistical analysis “U.S. Economy/International Trade/Domestic Border Security” and averaging these calculations to natural response outcomes - scores at (64%) “most important with American Voters, while “Global Warming/Environment/International Human Rights” attracts score of (35%) and Obama Care/Health Care attracts (36%).
Support for U.S./Israel relations attracts a definitive majority of American Voter support – while response choice “Israel is an oppressive State actor attracts a very noteworthy minority at under (40%).
In our last but no least hypothetical contest between Trump/Pence 2020 and Warren/Biden 2020 (the hypothetical response choice) – Trump/Pence 2020 thump Warren/Biden 2020 by (10%) nationally. In Jan 2019 RSR ROBBINS suggested Polling Outcomes in hypothetical of Trump/Pence (53.72%) and (hypothetical) Biden/Gabbard (47.11%). In late February 2019 Trump/Pence score (52.72%) to (hypothetical) Biden/Klobachur at (47.01%). At April 2019 RSR ROBBINS scores Trump/Pence 2020 @ (52.32%) to (hypothetical Biden/Harris at (42.37%). In my June 23, 2019 I scored Donald Trump (51.9%) to Joe Biden (44.1%).
Over the period of late June 2019 to August 2019 mainstream scores Biden 10 points ahead of Trump through polls suggestions of “I”, “E”, “Q” and including “Fox News” which scores Biden 12 points ahead of Trump (lol).
The Democrats and supporting mainstream media and polling would be better off - giving Trump the Poll Lead and take on the role of the under dog. It's how it is and makes more sense (notwithstanding the fund raising needs).

Home| British Columbia Polls| Canada Polls| US and the World Polls| Contact| Register| Search| Site Map
Copyright Robbins SCE Research Inc. ©2019