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RSR ROBBINS - Profile New York State (Nassau County & Other) - Trump support, Ban private health care, Free health care for undocumented and illegals
The Trammps - Disco Inferno (long version)  Jun 30, 2019

Question #1
Support re election of President Donald Trump in 2020? (New York State)
Yes    43.93 %
No    49.12 %
Question #2
Support re election of President Donald Trump in 2020 (Nassau Country)?
Yes    51.96 %
No    42.46 %
Question #3
Support a complete ban on the purchase of private health insurance in favor of government only health insurance?
Yes    41.48 %
No    47.68 %
Question #4
Support free health care for all undocumented and illegal immigrants?
Yes    36.24 %
No    67.76 %
Commentary
New York State historically (1960 and onward) represents a State that votes Democrat.
Average Democrat vote percentage is 54.01% in U.S. Presidential contests, while average Republican is 42.63%. In the last 7 presidential elections New York State has voted Democrat at a pace of 58.98% with Republicans averaging 35.03%.
This is not to say that Republican Presidents have not done well in New York. Richard Nixon won in 1972 roping in 58.54% of New York State and nice fat College. Four years earlier in the 1968 race he won nationally Nixon scored 44.30% of the vote – so an increase of 32% for Richard Nixon.
In the most recent 2016 U.S. Election Hillary Clinton lost the presidency quite severely but won New York State easily 59.01% to 36.52% for Donald Trump. If Donald Trump replicated Richard Nixon's success as incumbent he would achieve 48.20%.
Big Cable News in the United States universally suggests Donald Trump has no chance in New York (or California). I recently polled Donald Trump/Mike Pence (Republican) 2020 within 5 percent of Jay Inslee/Tulsi Gabbard (Democrat) in California.
I assert I have enough data to assert that the Democrats cannot beat Donald Trump/Mike Pence and that there is not enough time for them all things considered to mount a successful united challenge.
Florida is a lock for Trump. Like California was to Reagan – Florida is to Trump despite the fact that Trump is considered a New Yorker.
Ohio, Wisconsin and New Hampshire are locked down for Trump/Pence. South Carolina is a big win for Donald Trump and like Ohio featuring a breakaway of African Americans from the shackles of Democrat dependence – to the economic freedom being offered by Trump – now.
Just as Hillary Clinton did not know how to get out vote efficiently in 2016, Donald Trump did. The Democrats put all of their eggs in Mueller – and have nothing (at all) for it except racket attractive only to a fraction of voters not able to critically think through the matter or like many less aware of the facts simply partisan agreement that Trump was/is a bad man and Mueller would get him – whether that outcome was fair or not.
Mueller having been subpoenaed to testify before the House – by Democrat majority is further exhibition of Democrat knowledge that Mueller is their only investment – already rendered useless – they desire to exhume the body at or about the same time investigations by US Justice authority to investigate essentially Hillary et al – Comey – which (having read Comey's testimony) could dredge up all kinds of things.
The Republicans are laying in wait for Mueller like hungry vultures.
When one places all of these events on concurrent (but separate) continuum we see the Mueller circumstance becoming more desperate – but will occupy summer news for a wee bit – sell some advertising – to keep coverage and attention on politics – (with little value to the public interest) unless Mueller is pinned down on when he knew there was no collusion – and if that answer isn't appropriate will connect Mueller back to Hillary, Comey, Clapper et al in the forthcoming response from Justice against the people who created Mueller.
Game this out people – how does this work?
Well it works on Cable News – with CNN Jake Trapper assessing Donald Trump's assertion that China Tariffs bring huge money into the United States is a false statement – on the basis that consumers pay for it – is the higher end of poor media analysis.
An honest broker to the public would say well it is true that Tariffs are bringing money into US coffers – it can have a negative impact on some businesses in the United States. The former is a fact about the US benefit and the latter is an argument related to groups or businesses in the United States.
It is unintelligent and not helpful. It is an improvement over the plethora of might – ifs – possibly-plausible – may rendered entire news organization as production challenged.
This RSR New York State Poll serves to reinforce our position that Trump/Pence have an opportunity for victory in every State in the Union including New York.
We base this position on our review of the following New York Counties – Albany, Tompkins County, Queens, but most predominantly Nassau County.
As background Nassau County was won by Ronald Reagan with 61.83% of the vote in that County in his 1984 wipe out victory over Jimmy Carter. Richard Nixon received a similar share vote of the vote in 1972, In 2008 Barack Obama won just less than 54% in 2008 and 2012.
In the Nixon and Reagan wins in New York in 1972 and 1984 running as incumbents – their New York State average is just less than 56%. In Republican best outcomes in New York State for President Nassau County was 11.7% higher vote outcome than New York State outcome.
This RSR New York State Poll reflects our suggestion that Donald Trump is currently at 51.96% in Nassau County trending upward from his 2016 vote totals of 45.43% and increase of 14% or 2% above the Nixon Reagan “higher vote outcome” relative to “New York State outcome.”
The other side of this new support for President Trump is the fact that in Nassau County only 42.46% of those New Yorkers are against him a decrease of 21%. I see Donald Trump's decided support at 54.56% in Nassau County. In our assessment Donald Trump is within 12% of both Nixon and Reagan totals in New York State.
Using basic extrapolations this currently places Donald Trump's best case scenario at 49.28% vote total for New York State in 2020.
After factoring in other Counties (some of larger pops where Trump got trounced by Clinton – like the Bronx) – and net support I place Trump/Pence 2020 at 43.93% currently.
I place those New Yorkers 'who generally vote in US Elections or will be eligible to vote in 2020' not in support of Donald Trump at 49.12% or 16 basis points below Donald Trump's current best case scenario in New York State.
Donald Trump needs to score upwards of 35% in New York Counties with higher populations where he did poorly in 2016 to win the State.
US President Donald Trump has a launch pad for health care policy discussions going forward versus Democrats– as the complete ban on private health insurance is tipping toward 50%. in New York State.
Recent announcement of free health care for all undocumented immigrants is a Democrat policy position that could win New York State for Donald Trump and Trump/Pence 2020.
Recent – 1.5% Margin of Error Estimate.

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