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RSR ROBBINS (1998) Most Accurate Pollster in the World - Profile New Hampshire: Trump v Biden, Reparations, Global Warming, Social Democrat v Capitalist
  Jun 23, 2019

Question #1
(Baseline): Who did you vote for in 2016 U.S. Election for President?
Hillary Clinton, Democrat    48 %
Donald Trump, Republican    47 %
Question #2
Of these two response choices if both were running for President for their respective parties and the Election was Today - who would you vote for?
Donald Trump, Republican    51.9 %
Joe Biden, Democrat    44.1 %
Question #3
In your opinion should African American people living in the United States receive reparations for the treatment of Black slaves in U.S. history? Response choices are as follows:
Elizabeth Warren promised Reverend Al Sharpton that she would seek full reparations for African Americans, Aboriginals and others negatively affected    24.09 %
President Donald Trump who likely believes a good economy and low unemployment for African Americans NOW matters most    60.15 %
Question #4
Which of the following response choices BEST reflects your position on Climate Change and Global Warming?
I believe climate change and global warming are real and serious    25.71 %
I don't believe climate change and global warming are real or serious    31.43 %
I believe what is occurring is historical and not man made    26.50 %
I believe what is occurring is man made and a new phenomenon    15.72 %
Question #5
Would you characterize yourself more as a Social Democrat or Capitalist if these were the only two choices you had to select from?
Capitalist    61.01 %
Social Democrat    38.98 %
Commentary
According to Wikipedia, the turnout in 2016 in New Hampshire State was [75.03%}.
Hillary Clinton won according to Wikipedia [47.62%} to Donald Trump's [47.25%}.
The New York Times claims the final vote tally from 2016 to be Clinton [46.8%} to Trump's [46.5%}. A very close contest.
The Libertarian Party achieved over [4%} of the Vote in New Hampshire in 2016 about [20%} higher than average in the Live Free or Die State - a well known social and conservative Libertarian State.
The New York Times percentages might infer even higher percentage for Libertarian Party owing to Green Party's low vote count from 2016 [<1%}.
The New York Times article asserts that "New Hampshire is a competitive state that leans Democratic on presidential matters."
I don't believe that is a fair depiction.
From 1960 to 2016 or 15 Election cycles New Hampshire support Republican candidates 8 times. Given the closeness of the Trump v Clinton Election prosecution - one could say that trend is closer to 9/15 than 7 in 15.
New Hampshire supported the Democratic candidate 7/15 times and given the closeness of 2016 one could say this tends to reflect closer to 6/15 than 8/15.
Of the 8 Republican Presidents from 1960 to 2016 New Hampshire provided [56.44%] vote share to those candidates and [49.7%] to Democrats who became President.
Of the 15 presidential races inclusive of 1960 when New Hampshire got it wrong [4 times] the difference between the two main party contestants was [4.96%].
When New Hampshire predicted the National outcome (11/15) the average overall gap between contestant parties is a whopping [20.55%], including a difference of [26.44%] from 1960 to 1988 and [10.66%] in the elections thereafter.
The New York Times claim is only correct if one considers Elections from 1992 onward or 7/15 Elections since 1960 and this can be explained by Clintons' 10 percent win over Bob Dole in 1996, and Obama's 10 percent win over McCain in 2008 - following Bush who was outpolled by Democrat candidate John Kerry in New Hampshire [50.24%] to [48.87%] for Bush ("W").
I believe that Donald Trump will defeat Joe Biden and likely any other Democratic candidate currently being promoted in the field by a percentage over (5%) including this one which claims a lead for Trump over Biden by estimated (8%) well outside the Margin of Error claimed at (2%).
I believe it on the basis of Donald Trump having support of household in New Hampshire earning over $70,000 annually supporting Donald Trump (51%) to (42%) currently.
I see no reason to be convinced of any other outcome given the responses on the questions of reparations (compensation versus opportunity), on climate change and global warming - and most particularly on social democracy versus capitalism.
Conducted: Very Recent catching news cycles.
GPR

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