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Glen P. Robbins RSR ROBBINS Profile State of Florida: Trump v Biden, Jerusalem Israel, Confidence in FBI/DoJ, USMC, Trump Rally-Rolling Stones theory
Satisfaction - Rolling Stones  May 12, 2019

Question #1
Baseline 2016 U.S. Election President (State of Florida)
(Winner) Donald Trump, Republican    49 %
(Loser) Hillary Clinton, Democrat    48 %
Question #2
At this point in time with 18 months to go- who do your support for U.S. President 2020?
Donald Trump, Republican    54.82 %
Joe Biden, Democrat    43.29 %
Question #3
Do you agree and support U.S. President Trump’s decision “to recognize Jerusalem as the Capital of Israel”?
Agree and Support    62.36 %
Disagree & Don’t Support    26.72 %
Question #4
Do have the full confidence in and of the FBI and Department of Justice leadership in Washington District of Columbia?
Yes    42.40 %
No    53.60 %
Question #5
Should the Democratic House majority pass into law the US Mexico Canada “USMCA” agreement?
Yes    72.81 %
No    23.67 %
Question #6
Entertainment Question: If the opportunity were available to you to attend a coliseum style or outdoor Stadium - U.S. President Trump campaign rally to be followed by a Rolling Stones concert, would you be willing to pay $950 US for good seats to the Rolling Stones concert?
Yes    18.04 %
No    46.32 %
Commentary
History of U.S. President – “State of Florida” from 1984 Reagan’s 2nd term (1st party and name wins US President): 1984 (R) Reagan 65%, (D) Mondale (35%); 1988 (R) Bush (1) 61%, (D) Dukakis 39%; 1992 (D) Clinton 39%, (R) Bush (1) 41%, *Perot (Independent) 19%; 1996 (D) Clinton 48%, (R) Dole 42%, **Perot (Independent) (9%); 2000 (R) Bush (2) 49%, (D) Gore 49%; 2004 (R) Bush (2) 52%, (D) Kerry (47%); 2008 (D) Obama 51%, (R) McCain (48%); 2012 (D) Obama 50%, (R) Romney (49%); 2016 (R) Trump 49%, (D) Clinton 48%.
Republican average “Florida” (unadjusted for Perot 1992 & 1996) 51%, Democrat (unadjusted) 45%.
Republicans exceed unadjusted [%} average in 3/9 US Presidential Elections commencing at this point from Republic Ronald Reagan’s wipeout win in 1984, (while Democrats exceed unadjusted % average 5/9 Elections).
I say from the outset that it is a replication of Reagan’s spectacular (and crushing) defeat of Walter Mondale that I can see in Donald Trump’s future and introduce my own assessment that Donald Trump is better than 8 to 1 to repeat in 2020, I put a repeat of Reagan’s performance for Trump in 2020 at even odds today.
Republican average with 1992 and 1996 removed from calculation R@ (53%). Democrat average with 1992 and 1996 removed (<) 46%. Clinton’s two terms are the weakest gained of the President’s who attained them including: Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush (2), Barack Obama and most likely and soon enough Donald Trump- because of the interference of Ross Perot who clearly served as Clinton’s political vampire bleeding off HW’s support through campaign as an Independent.
Barack Obama on the other hand did not require any political stunts two big wins against two competent candidates.
Now that Donald Trump has learned the political game – been successful – and beaten back a historical negative political and media onslaught predicated on a assault (and breach of) his personal rights – the horde of 2016 Voters – bursting at the seams to love him now – has translated into a smooth running ride toward a massive big win in 2020.
For RSR ROBBINS it started with Profile of State of Wisconsin recently – and Projection of a Trump win in 2020 there, and is now combined with the Projection that Donald Trump will win Florida (herein).
I can Project a 2020 Trump re-election TODAY. By far the earliest Prediction and Projection of a United States – prior to the actual Election Date and with majority evidence pointing sharply in that direction.
History of U.S. (National Outcome) since 1984 Reagan: Republican [47.7%], Democrat [47.4%]. Since 1960: Republican [47.3%], Democrat [47.5%].
Through the 1984 election until now Republicans have won 5/9 [55.6%]. Since 1960 [(D) John F. Kennedy] Republicans have won 8/15 [53.33%]. A Trump win in 2020 would move the historical determination of party win probability to [56.25%].
From Fox News: ‘Trump was well liked in Florida before he ran for President’ [2016].
With Reagan 1984 a non factor in the classification of Election Outcomes (as Deterministic tool), Republican average declines (1.6%) and Democrat average increases just less than (1%), however it should be noted that in 1980 Reagan also won office with 51% to Jimmy Carter 41% *Independent John Anderson @6%, a national win of [10%].
Similarly Reagan won 56% in 1980 in Florida with Carter scoring 39%, again the Independent Anderson [5%] Florida accounting for the difference between Carter’s below average total and Democrats total in Florida at 45%. A Florida win of [16%].
Anyway one cuts it – in the modern era of US Presidential Elections, and in particular in analysis of presidential success due in significant part to a good economy – it is fair to estimate that Democrats do about (4.3%) ‘less well’ in Florida than on the National average at Election time).
It is also true that whichever candidate and party wins Florida on balance of probability also wins the U.S. General Election for President.
I factor this determination about (77.8%) probability.
It is important to note that U.S. President Trump, like Reagan is in hot pursuit of a great economy with excellent results to date, and further that Donald Trump unlike Reagan won President without any previous political experience (Reagan was California Governor).
Beyond this Trump has added the new dimension of actually pursuing his election promises in earnest which gave him office originally. This is sufficient to add many Independents to his total, along with more than a few Democrats who go for jobs.
Right now I estimate Trump at (60%) for final (%) electoral outcome November 2020 at 1 in 3, it is the Democrats job to keep Trump under (52%).
Staying with Reagan former California Governor momentarily I acknowledge Ronald Reagan defeating Jimmy Carter [52.69%] to [35.91%] in 1980, and
Using all other Republican averages since 1984 in the State of California as well as the Reagan averages and averaging the scores since Bush (2) and overall I see Donald Trump’s lowest California score for 2016 at [43%) (Trump under performed in California a State he all but neglected).
This [43%) Trump Score would increase vote by [1,300,000) [based on 2016 Voter Outcome] and thus bring his actual winning [%] up to Republican average totals since 1960.
This California ‘distraction’ deserves significant consideration given this Declaration that Florida is to Trump as California was to Reagan.
Strategic Environments for Poll: Palm Beach and Duval Counties:
Palm Beach (3rd largest pop): 1984 (R) Reagan 62%, (D) Mondale 38%; 1988 (R) Bush (1) 55%, Dukakis 44%; *1992 (D) Clinton 46%, (R) Bush (1) 38%, **Perot (I) 19%; **1996 (D) Clinton 58%, Dole (R) 34%, ** Perot (I) 8%, 2000 (R) Bush (2) 35%, Gore 62%; 2004 (R) Bush (2) 39%, (D) Kerry 60%; 2008 (D) Obama 61%, (R) McCain 38%; 2012 (D) Obama 58%, (R) Romney 41%; 2016 (R) Trump 41%, (D) Clinton 57%.
Republican average Palm Beach (unadjusted for Perot 1992 & 1996) 42%, Democrat (unadjusted) 54%.
Republican average with 1992 and 1996 removed from calculation (Palm Beach) 45%, 54%.
I have Donald Trump at (50%) in Palm Beach Florida (22%) higher in RSR ROBBINS support than Election Total @ 41%.
Republicans exceed overall average in Palm Beach since 1984 2/9 times, while Democrats exceed average 6/9 times.
It is my opinion that Donald Trump is polling even in Palm Beach County and exceeding Republicans averages for so doing. U.S. President Trump has a lock on Florida.
Duval County (7th highest pop): 1984 (R) Reagan 63%, (D) Mondale 38%; 1988 (R) Bush (1) 63%, (D) Dukakis 37%; *1992 (D) Clinton 38%, (R) Bush (1) 49%, *Perot (I) 13%; **1996 (D) Clinton, (R) Dole 50%, **Perot 5%; 2000 (R) Bush (2) 58%, (D) Gore 41%; 2004 (R) Bush (2) 58%, (D) Kerry 42%; 2008 (D) Obama 49%, McCain 51%; 2012 (D) Obama 48%, (R) Romney 51%; 2016 (R) Trump 49%, (D) Clinton (48%).
Republican average Duval County: 55%, Democrat average Duval County 43%.
I have Donald Trump @ (57%) in Duval Florida (16%) above 2016 Election Outcome.
Current estimated population Palm Beach, Florida is 1.5 million, Duval 940 K.
I score Trump, Republicans for 2020 at higher support than both historical ‘national’ Florida average calculations, and Joe Biden, Democrat below both historical ‘national’ averages.
Donald Trump is trending toward Bush (1) [1988] and possibly Reagan averages [1984] for Florida.
I PROJECT Donald Trump will win Florida 2020 handily (*based on similar turnout to 2016), giving him to date PROJECTED wins in States of Wisconsin and Florida.
Even without the significant increase in Palm Beach County and realizing only the Duval increases I suggest this puts Donald Trump over (50%).
I estimate (conservatively) using Palm Beach and Duval (actual) RSR ROBBINS Outcomes, averaging these outcomes for State of Florida Counties (Hillsborough) and 7% (Duval) to all Counties in Florida where Trump scored Duval (also his overall State score) and up to [60%] for Conservative estimate of 500,000 new voters for Trump or (54.82%) following adjustment of low basis points.
I would add with confidence that a (1%) plus or minus on these numbers is suitable to me. I would add the fact that respondents who are new to voting eligibility-are not properly covered in this poll. However, I hold to my predictions given the factor of voting capacity among the new voters, the general pattern of turn out (note a denigration), and the fact that in earlier polls I have conducted I found the average age of the self determined far right voter to be younger than that of the self determined far left.
For Question 3.
Well Israel matters to a lot of Floridians and not simply those of Jewish background given the overwhelming support reflected in Florida.
For Question 4
I am a ‘scotty wee bit’ bias on this subject – so I found 42.40% a little high however this could be explained by those 2016 Voters being confused about who the most negativity is about – I didn’t ask but I would hazard a guess – the negativity isn’t about AG Barr.
For Question 5
Mexico wants to fit into the winners circle – and wants to do business with the Trump government. Canada has morphed itself over nearly a decade into the trailer park of western democracies – the Americans want this one ratified – and onto China and let’s win there.
For Hypothetical imagined Political Rock Concert
There is a well over one Billion $$ for combination Trump Rally – Rolling Stones concert. The Trump rallies in Florida with major rock act like the Rolling Stones where average price is expected to be $625 (over a decade old) numbers per US per ticket just got bumped in this RSR ROBBINS poll by another (50%).
It would be suggestion in this ‘eccentric promotion’ that the ‘Stones’ end is $750 while Trump would take $200. An 80,000 seat stadium – with sales of hats, T Shirts and other promotions with or without overlap I estimate $30,000,000 U.S. for Trump and $120,000,000 Rolling Stones – one show.
This Glen P. Robbins blueprint for new promotion – in hypothetical would easily surpass U2 with the highest revenues (although I do not have the numbers for non ticket items which the theory projects).
The demand obviously exists in Florida and in Counties like Palm Beach and Duval Florida where the average wage is double the nation’s average – this appears to be a fabulous new marketing strategy – many concerts in one region – with great double bill one of them a Trump rally.
*NOTICE TO READER: Glen P. Robbins and ROBBINS SCE Research has no authority to speak on behalf of either US President Trump or any person in the 2020 campaign, the Rolling Stones or any person related to either.
**ROBBINS SCE Research predicted the Passion of Christ earnings – (no one else was even close).
GPR
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