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RSR ROBBINS R 20th Anniversary POP - Ontario PC Leadership Review by Glen P. of Christine Elliot, Doug Ford Jr., Caroline Mulroney, Tanya Allen (2nd poll)n
  Mar 01, 2018

Question #1
Who do you believe would be the best next leader for the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario from the response options provided? (offered at 100% Decided, N.B. high Undecided):
Caroline Mulroney    34 %
Doug Ford Jr.    32 %
Christine Elliott    27 %
Tanya Granic Allen    7 %
(Undecided)    27 %
In our 1st poll (survey) our support score was: Ford (31%), Caroline Mulroney (25%), Christine Elliot (20%), Patrick Brown (19%), Tanya Granic Allen (5%). The Undecided was immense @ (29%). In spite of this I held to a 3% MOEstimate ® in that poll/survey.
There is no Patrick Brown here, where did his support go? What happened, if anything to Undecided? I believe that (42%) has dispersed among other candidates, the remainder occupying the non exhaustive list of remaining Undecided et al. Sometimes a response has to be excluded.
From the pool of Patrick Brown’s who went to other candidates (54%) went to Caroline Mulroney. Has Patrick Brown made a bargain with Mulroney?
Mulroney also attracted (39%) of Undecided from 1st survey, from the pool of one third who made a choice. For general information I would assess old Undecided of 29% to be just under 20% with the top up of > half of Browns’ old(e) support to Undecided et al.
On the face of my research, Mulroney and Granic Allen have something in common. Of Mulroney’s pool of support I reckon at better than one in three, (52%) are women, while (48%) are men. Granic Allen, a social conservative (and though young is not underage), has (61%) women to (39%) men.
I would add that Caroline Mulroney’s mother Mila is of Croatian descent, Granic Allen has a father of Croatian descent. (My wife Ita was born in Dubrovnik, Croatia-my mother (Lynch out of Halifax, N.S.)).
Who knows? Croatian women are excellent in a ground game, I have discovered.
The press has either Ford or Elliott in the lead in polls of actual members of the Progressive Conservatives. The polls I have seen from another firm cited membership lists as source and in one publication had Brown ahead, then he left, again, and in another broadcast of 10 times the number of respondents as in the first publication (Comedian Sam Kinison scream here), have ‘either Ford or Elliot in the lead).
Short race, odd race, twisted circumstances, really weird actually…so anything can happen.
I have Ford with (62%) men to (38%) & Christine Elliott (53%) men to (47%). It is important to note that there is migration from one candidate to another, but these are basis points (which matter) with near equivalent travelling from survey 1 to this one…#2.
Using total number of candidates (and not Undecided) as divisor (Survey 1 (5 divisors), Survey 2 (4 divisors) and producing Random percentage (20%) to (25%) respectively, and then applying support totals from both surveys I am able to take some measure of change with the departure of Patrick Brown.
Mulroney grows flow low (60’s) to low (70’s) RSR Survey Approval Assessment, Ford from mid (70’s) to low (60’s), Elliott climbs to (58%) with Granic Allen at (14%).
Despite his power Ford Junior is but one man among 3 women, his support is high among men, growth if any will be modest, who would he otherwise support?
Ford goes more easily to Mulroney, who cannot play bridesmaid to Elliott who has had two kicks at the leadership coming 2nd or 3rd.
This is a continuation of RSR Survey of a week ago conducted March 1, 2018 (the 2nd one). I declare a Margin of Error Estimate of 2%.

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