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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics December 15, 2013
  Dec 15, 2013

Question #1
Which leader and party in Canada do you currently support? (Decided presented to 100%)
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    36 %
Thomas Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    27 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    27 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    5.5 %
Other leader and party    4.5 %
Undecided    8.5 %
Question #2
Which party leader is your favourite?
Justin Trudeau    42 %
Thomas Mulcair    26 %
Stephen Harper    24 %
Elizabeth May    8 %
Undecided    9 %
Question #3
Which party is your 2nd choice?
Liberal Party of Canada    13 %
New Democratic Party of Canada    7 %
Conservative Party of Canada    4 %
Green Party of Canada    4 %
Commentary
Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada continue to steam ahead pulling popular support across the country. From the bottom of the heap after the last federal election in 2011 to the top - the party appears almost unstoppable heading towards the last lap to the next election in mid 2015. The party's national support has persisted in the mid 30 percentile for some time now, and is edging even higher in this RSR major survey at years end 2013.
The argument to contradict the value of this survey is that former Liberal Michael Ignatieff garnered similar support and was later trounced in the federal election, however we believe this argument doesn't hold in this circumstance.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's credibility was not in serious trouble previously, but that credibility is now in doubt, the Conservative Party has been in government for 8 years, and is not Canada's natural party, given that the Liberal Party has governed Canada for most of our history, and has historically been less confrontational to conventional Canadian values, while the Harper government has been since winning majority government in 2011.
Canadians have felt Ottawa's winter chill in the economy since 2008 and are grateful to Mr. Harper's apparent stewardship, but appear to be done with Mr. Harper's politics of fear and division and want a change from it.
There is a sense that the Conservatives are not able to run positive government, create jobs and otherwise bring the country back to prosperity.
The most significant reason for the Liberal Party's success is Justin Trudeau and a new yearning among Canadians for the Liberal brand. Mr. Trudeau has already made numerous gaffes and made some odd and esoteric statements - which might damage any other leader's popularity, but Canadians don't seem to care. It is as if they have already decided Trudeau will be Canada's next Prime Minister. It is as if they need it to be this way.
Based on these numbers, those in our previous survey and polling numbers, and outcomes of other polls, with the caveat of significant time until the next federal election, we confidently predict Justin Trudeau will win the next federal general election in Canada in 2015.
The further evidence in this survey that supports this prediction is the fact that our questions 2 and 3 reveal party leader Justin Trudeau is burning up the personal popularity outcomes with support over 40%, with the party's 1st and 2nd choice combinations nearing one in two Canadian voters.
Liberal support in the Province of Ontario is over (40%) which remains consistent with many polls over an extended period of time.
Support for the Liberals in Newfoundland and Labrador is (48%), British Columbia and Manitoba at (34%), Alberta (31%), and Quebec is back in play after many years (29%), a number we believe is the final piece of evidence in support of our prediction that the Liberal Party of Canada will form Canada's next government.
Thomas Mulcair and the New Democratic Party are hanging in there in public support following the party's sensational showing in the last federal election.
Leader Mulcair has had an outstanding year 2013, however Canadians are still getting to know him, and he apparently has to work 3 times as hard as young Trudeau to achieve the support he presently receives.
The New Democrats are holding at (38%) from our previous polls down slightly form the last federal election, up a little in vote rich Ontario, and holding support in the Atlantic and Prairie Provinces, but are a little soft in BC.
The New Democrats are beginning to challenge the Conservatives in rural Canada, which has heretofore been dominated by the government party.
Stephen Harper and the Conservative government support is collapsing everywhere across Canada. Stephen Harper was the brand the Conservative Party relied on and that brand is badly tarnished, with confidence in the party way down. Mr. Harper's personal support is lower than both his main rivals. The combination of leader and party and leader (alone) from this RSR survey would suggest the Conservative government is not bending - but is broken.
Reporters and researchers are using the word arrogant to describe the members of the Conservative party and the Prime Minister.
What is unknown is Stephen Harper's energy level. He is a powerful being, but these numbers suggest he is losing his attraction to many voters, in particularly those most loyal to him. He states that he is running in 2015 and that is expected, to do otherwise would be an admission of political guilt and could send Harper Air into a tailspin.
As it is right now, Mr. Harper is improving former Progressive Conservative leader Brian Mulroney's legacy as people who are aware of our history are beginning to understand that Mr. Mulroney made sincere efforts to unite the country, while Mr. Harper seems to draw his strength and power from dividing it for his own Machiavellian benefit.
In addition, if further evidence relating to the Senate scandal continues to slink toward the desk in Mr. Harper's office, this will hasten his political descent and destroy the party's fortunes in 2015. Will this in conjunction with these RSR survey numbers translate to a huge comeback for the federal Liberals under Mr. Trudeau and possible majority government.
Methodology: This is an RSR Survey of 1,540 Canadians who voted in the most recent general election held Monday, May 2, 2011. Respondents were gathered from RSR private survey lists over hand held telephones - in person to person interviews held between December 11-20, 2013.
The Margin of Error on a national basis is 2.5% plus or minus, 19 times out of 20 (95% confidence level - based on sample size).
The number of respondents from each province are as follows: Ontario 532 respondents (MOE - 4.3%); Quebec 331 respondents (MOE - 5.4%); British Columbia 231 respondents (MOE - 6.4%); Alberta 158 (MOE - 7.8%); Atlantic Provinces (MOE - 7.7%); Saskatchewan and Manitoba 127 (MOE - 8.7%).

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