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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics May 17, 2013
  May 17, 2013

BC Liberal majority (2013) The Accidental Government.
Only (36.5%) of Voters from the BC provincial general election (2013) answer "Yes" to whether or not they are "pleased" with the electoral outcome to the recent provincial election May 14, 2013.
(53%) of BC Voters (2013) are pleased that Christy Clark lost her own riding seat, while (33%) are displeased.
(38%) of 2013 BC Voters are of the opinion that it is "Very Important" or "Important" that Christy Clark win a by election seat - while (62%) see this outcome as "Very Unimportant" or "Unimportant".
Two thirds of BC Liberal voter support the party out of loyalty, concern for the economy or because they want Christy Clark to have 4 more years as Premier.
One third voted for BC Liberals - because of fear of the NDP from the 1990's, fear of an NDP super majority or fear of NDP leader Adrian Dix.
Nearly 4 in 10 BC NDP voters blame the party planners, executive and leader Adrian Dix for the loss.
About (51%) of BC voters from 2013 support Enbridge - Kinder Morgan - if the fifth condition posed by Premier Christy Clark is put in place - namely $2 billion per year in royalty payment to the Province of British Columbia and $1 billion in insurance/surety under our provincial control - in the event of an environmental disaster.

Question #1
As a result of the recent provincial general election the BC Liberals won 50 seats and the BC NDP won 33 – a large majority for the BC Liberals. Are you pleased with the election result?
Yes    36.5 %
No    49 %
Question #2
Which of the following responses best describes how you feel about the fact that BC Liberal Christy Clark lost her seat to the NDP candidate David Eby?
Pleased    53 %
Displeased    33 %
Indifferent    11 %
Question #3
How important is it to you that Christy Clark wins a seat in a future by-election to be BC Liberal leader for 4 more years?
Very Important    12 %
Important    26 %
Unimportant    29 %
Very Unimportant    33 %
Question #4
(To Liberal voters) Which response choice BEST describes the motivation for your vote on May 14, 2013
I support the BC Liberals no matter    35 %
I was most concerned about the BC NDP from the 1990’s    13.5 %
I was most concerned about a huge BC NDP majority    14 %
I was most concerned about BC NDP Leader Adrian Dix    5.5 %
I was considering BC's economic future    25.5 %
I wanted Christy Clark to lead the province for 4 more years    6.5 %
Question #5
(To BC NDP Voters)Who is to blame for the NDP electoral loss – when a win was expected?
The Party planners and Executive    16.5 %
The Leader Adrian Dix    21 %
Bias Media/Corporate $$/Negative Ads    24 %
Bad Luck-Circumstances    9 %
No one person or one thing is to blame    27.5 %
Question #6
How do you respond to the following proposal from mediator Glen P. Robbins to the Alberta Government, the participating oil companies, Enbridge and Kinder Morgan on the subject of a pipeline constructed across northern BC to Port Renfrew and the construction of ten times the capacity of oil delivery through Metro Vancouver to the port with both Ports delivering Alberta oil by tanker to the United States and China? I accept the construction of these pipelines in northern BC and Metro Vancouver on the basis that BC be paid 2 billion dollars in royalties each and every year, AND (with emphasis) a 1 billion dollar trust be set aside to provide for any environmental oil spills or environmental damage caused by any such spill.
I agree with this proposal    45 %
I don't agree with this proposal    44 %
Question #7
(Other) At what age have you retired or do you expect to retire?
Age average (63)    N/A %
No Answer/Undecided/Don't Know    27 %
Commentary
Based on the 44% BC Liberal 2013 electoral win and using this number as a multiplier to the percentile outcomes question 1, the result is that (83%) of the final vote total for the BC Liberals is “pleased” with the election outcome while (87.5%) of the (56%) who did not vote for the BC Liberals are “displeased” with the 2013 B.C. general provincial election outcome. Statistically this creates ‘real’ voter support for the BC Liberals estimated at (41.5%). This number against the BC NDP result looks similar to the 1996 BC provincial election vote where the BC NDP won a smaller majority.
There are MORE voters from the 2013 election who are “pleased” with Christy Clark’s seat loss (question 2) than who are “displeased” with the election outcome (question 2). The percentage of 2013 voters who are pleased with Christy’s own riding loss EXCEEDS the total percentage of voters who did not vote for her party in the 2013 provincial vote, YET in question 3 the number of voters who are of the opinion that it is “very important” or “important” that Christy win a by election is slightly higher than the number of voters from question 1 who are “pleased” with the election outcome.
Question 4 offers 6 response choices to BC Liberal voters (2013). These response choices are intended to attempt to explain the motivation for their vote—the most important method of analysis given the surprise election outcome. Random in this question is at 16.666…%. More than one third of BC Liberals are voting BC Liberal no matter. We consider this a positive response relative to the other choices by virtue of the fact they are voting for something. (50%) of response choices deal with the negative perception these BC Liberal voters have of the BC NDP (1) from the 1990’s, (2) an NDP huge majority that appeared to be a likelihood (3) concern about Adrian Dix. An estimated (35%) of BC Liberal voters are of the opinion that the NDP leader, the party history or the threat of a huge majority caused them to vote BC Liberal.
Consideration about BC’s economic future caused one quarter of BC Liberal voters to return that government to office. Based on a 44.43% BC Liberal win – this represents (11.16%) of overall voters – a significant factor.
(6.5%) of BC Liberal voters voted for the party on the basis of Christy Clark’s efforts. Christy Clark’s support number represents an estimated (2.76%) of the overall vote.
Question 4 tells the story of what happened in the 2013 election vote from the perspective of the BC Liberal voter body. It reveals positive and negative response options that affected their voting choice.
The first response option- core BC Liberal support-“I support the BC Liberals no matter” outcome is 211.5% above Random (R) at 16.666…%. It is the foundation of the BC Liberal support.
Our survey then has 3 options that are negative response outcomes representing just > 50% of Random (R) for this question. These are (1) “I was most concerned about the BC NDP from the 1990’s”; (2) “I was most concerned about the prospect of a huge NDP majority”; (3) “I was most concerned about NDP leader Adrian Dix”.
The 5th Response option in question 3 considers BC’s economic future - and is a contemplative response choice – more positive than negative but having ‘unconscious’ implications for both. This response choice scores 182.22% above Random (R) at 100%. If we factor this response .choice ‘considering BC’s economic future’ and add it to both the singular positive response choice (core support) – and to the (3) ‘fear of the NDP’ response choices we find the positive response choice at Random (32.4%) scoring a total response choice of (60.48%) while the negative response choices at Random (66.4%) scored (58.56%). The ultimate point here is that the positive response choice (core support) plus economic consideration (positive-contemplative (neutral)) after factoring Random -- scores (63.56%) while the negative response options (3) plus economic consideration (neutral) scores (36.44%).
The BC Liberals ran a brilliant tactical campaign in that their core support was not affected one way or the other regarding the efforts and actions of the party to win. In this sense they are positive. The economy – grabbed a percentage of voters which statistically scored better than the (3) negative options combined. The point here is that the negativity of the campaign was not sufficient to turn off those voters who may have been considering sitting out the election but instead went into the voting booth and voted as a fear to the prospect of an NDP super majority, and not necessarily an NDP government. The engineering of this brilliant balance –resulting in an amazing electoral reality --- those voters who supported the BC Liberals because they feared a super majority (and by anecdote any super majority) actually were responsible for creating a BC Liberal super majority. That is first past the post irony!
These numbers in analysis of BC Liberal voters reveal a vote that is motivated by two thirds positive attitude while slightly more than one third is based more on fear of the NDP past and present. Of that fear component (40.75%) is constituted of fear of an NDP super majority. If we consider the statistical break down and the (36.44%) attributable to the ‘fear’ components and calculate {40.75% x 36.44%} we can see that {14.85% x 33.2%} or statistically (4.93%) of the ‘fear response component’ is directly attributable to the fear of an NDP super majority.
This (4.93%) number is important. If we deduct the fear of an NDP super majority from the percentage of voters pleased with the election outcome (not all BC Liberal voters), we have a 31.65% base number. If we extrapolate this base number to a decided number we realize a (36%) number for BC Liberal support. In fact, (52%) of BC Liberal voter support who responded to ‘fear of an NDP super majority’ answered they were “displeased” with the election outcome. Another (11%) of the (4.93%) or one half of a per cent did not answer—leaving a net (2%) who were pleased with the outcome – and who voted- fearing an NDP super majority.
On this basis alone the actual BC Liberal support could be determined to be (38%) and not the 44% they actually received based on the fact that voting is an individual process. When we factor our first ‘real’ support for the BC Liberals (41.5%) and this second ‘real’ number (38%) – and leave the BC NDP voter outcome as Glen Clarke’s was and how Adrian Dix’s is = we have a tie in support for both parties.
It is abundantly clear that the election outcome in BC for 2013 was in fact - an accident.
Statistically, after factoring response choices (‘no one person or thing is to blame’) (‘bad luck circumstances’) (56%) of BC New Democratic Party voters blame party planners, executive or Adrian Dix for the stunning electoral loss, while the remainder blame it on the media/corporate $$ etc.
It is certain that this election outcome did NOT come down to money (jobs) talks – everything else walks, although it remained a major factor. The election actually came down to voters wanting change in government – but not trusting an NDP majority with a super majority. Instead they woke up to a BC Liberal majority government – and the strong sense of displeasure in this outcome.
Christy Clark has to give the people not only what they want – but what they need – change – a liberal government not a conservative one. A ROBBINS Rock n Roll survey conducted 2 days before the BC 2013 Election determined that in Metro Vancouver 45% support Justin Trudeau while 25% support Stephen Harper.
With big money on the table –/and big money in BC’s trust account- in the event of an environmental disaster- a slight majority of British Columbians are willing to accept Alberta oil delivery-but the caveat is money – big money – not simply investigations and committees by persons who have not been properly vetted for the public – or in the more cynical sense – behind the scenes political manipulations. Barely one in three British Columbians supports the pipelines WITHOUT bona fide economic inducement and surety to protect the environment (poll here). WITH financial compensation/insurance in place this number drastically changes-- with a slight majority of voters willing to do business.
This ROBBINS Aftermath 2013 survey suggests that the BC Liberals and BC NDP are at or about 40% in popular support, the former were successful at sneaking out a huge majority upset on Election Day. It is unlikely as many in the media have suggested that this was exclusively a last minute decision at the ballot box.
It is more likely a perfect storm of rationales and explanations with the motivation not organized or strategic but in the end – defending against a BC NDP landslide and voter perceptions of too much change as well as sufficient doubt about the BC NDP – and voters desire to escape the 2008 recession and find relief – that it was determined that one more economic push by the BC Liberals – to test their near opiated election economic promises under LNG – was required.
Voters are still in doubt Christy Clark – if their doubt in the BC Liberal party has evidently passed. This doubt in Christy Clark and her ability to lead the province (rather than just run a campaign and smile) should be tested in the coming weeks as we head into a by election that Christy Clark should win – but which the BC NDP’s David Eby says the party will fight aggressively. The Clark by election may be good for the BC NDP to the extent that it might distract them from ripping their leadership apart.
The BC NDP needs to get the labour influence out of their office – a few hundred jobs constructing the pipeline – against major risk – reflects the abject stupidity that labour sometimes brings – as big resource money does - to the big oil/environmental debate. On the other hand – Adrian Dix did not give Kinder Morgan a fair hearing – they haven’t applied. Christy Clark’s fence sit 5 conditions turned out to be the correct position to take – because as this ROBBINS survey clearly reflects – BC voters are willing to deal providing the price is right and safety is not promised but paid for --- up front.
The window of opportunity is smaller than the oil companies might imagine – considering their political proponent Stephen Harper has a small political window as well. Should Alberta and the oil companies not come to the table with real money and a real deal to satisfy British Columbians – then Adrian Dix will be quickly vindicated and the support will quickly turn against Christy Clark and her party if she appears to give in to Stephen Harper.
This ROBBINS survey makes it clear that although resistance to the pipelines remains strong under any circumstance it isn’t about a few hundred short term jobs – British Columbians want a nice slice of the royalty pie – and money in our trust if a screw up occurs --- before they will consent to the pipelines. This is simple – if Christy Clark gets the big oil loot and surety – she will truly be the comeback kid – but not until. If she permits Harper Oil to walk over her – she is done – it becomes snakes and not ladders for her.
This is a targeted ROBBINS survey of British Columbians who voted in the recent provincial general election on May 14, 2013. 806 BC voters were interviewed between May 15 - 18th, 2013. This ROBBINS survey features a Margin of Error of 3.45%, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence.

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