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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics April 12, 2013
  Apr 12, 2013

Question #1
Are you//did you, a family member, or a close friend (going to) attend/support the Times of India Film Awards in the city of Vancouver?
Yes    2 %
No
No    91 %
Question #2
Do you support the Christy Clark BC Liberals spending $12 million on the Times of India Film Awards for the city of Vancouver to promote BC?
Yes    6 %
No    78 %
Question #3
With the start of the provincial general election in BC set to commence, which leader and party do you support today? (4 leader and party totals to 100%)
Adrian Dix and BC New Democrats    45 %
John Cummins and BC Conservatives    22 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberals    22 %
Jane Sterk and BC Greens    12 %
Other/Undecided    7 %
Question #4
Which of the following parties do you believe would best allocate your tax dollars in a manner which most satisfies your expectations of your provincial government at this time?
BC New Democrats    53 %
BC Liberals    26 %
Question #5
Which of the following parties do you believe would best allocate your tax dollars in a manner which most satisfies your expectations of your provincial government at this time?
BC Conservatives    30 %
BC New Democrats    54 %
Question #6
Who do you trust the most on the BC economy?
Provincial New Democrats    42 %
Provincial Liberals    24 %
Provincial Conservatives    22 %
Question #7
Who do you trust the most with BC Health and Education?
Provincial New Democrats    57 %
Provincial Conservatives    19 %
Provincial Liberals    15 %
Question #8
Who do you trust the most to care for the Environment?
Provincial New Democrats    37 %
Provincial Greens    23 %
Provincial Liberals    18 %
Provincial Conservatives    15 %
Question #9
Adrian Dix proposes surtax on the big banks to help fund post-secondary education in the Province of British Columbia. Do you support this proposal?
Yes    68 %
No    28 %
Commentary
Only a ‘handful’ (2%) of British Columbians planned to attend – in fact attended – or (otherwise) supported the Times of India Awards held during the last weekend. This represents an estimated 70,000 of the adult population of the Province of British Columbia eligible to vote.
An estimated 8% of the decided population in the province supported the expenditure of the $12 million by the Christy Clark BC Liberal government. This represents an estimated equivalent 280,000 or 17.5% of the amount of BC Voters in 2009.
Global Television’s Jas Johal in his report to Bill Good at CKNW doesn’t believe the audience in India will be as large as Christy Clark has suggested, in fact much lower. British Columbians do not support the expenditure – and journalists operating South Asian newspapers in the Greater Vancouver community are questioning the allocation of the $12 million for the Times of India presentation.
The BC New Democrats are down from previous high percentages of 50% to 45% but remain a long way out in front of either the BC Conservatives or BC Liberals who are tied for a distant second place. It appears the usual suspects in the business community who donate to the BC Liberals and buy advertising with mainstream broadcasters are attempting to bump up BC Liberal expectations - but this survey suggests it’s the BC Conservatives with the only prayer to challenge the BC New Democrats. The BC Liberal brand has been severely damaged and gone downhill since 2009. Although the conservative brand in BC is not as lustrous as it was a few years ago with the growing unpopularity of Stephen Harper’s federal Conservatives in British Columbia – it is nonetheless the fresher of the two brands.
The BC New Democrats attract (30%) more total support than the BC Liberals on the question of which party would best allocate tax dollars in a way that satisfies their expectations. The BC Conservatives perform better against the BC New Democrats than the Liberals on the same question attracting nearly (35%) decided support.
The voters in British Columbia don’t trust Christy Clark or the BC Liberals with the check book.
The BC New Democrats lead the BC Liberals by only (18%) and the BC Conservatives by (20%) on the economy but fall behind combined BC Liberal – BC Conservative support by (4%) on this issue.
The BC New Democrats lead the BC Liberals by only (18%) and the BC Conservatives by (20%) on the economy but fall behind combined BC Liberal – BC Conservative support by (4%) on this issue.
The BC Democrats demolish the BC Liberals on health and education by (42%) and BC Conservatives by (38%) and the beat the combined totals of both centre right parties by (23%).
The voters in British Columbia don’t trust the BC Liberals or Conservatives on social services – the two biggest items education and health care they will gladly hand over to the BC New Democrats. The low numbers for the governing BC Liberals on health and education are certain to be a factor if support for the current government becomes bankrupt.
The BC Greens easily top the BC Liberals and BC Conservatives on the environment, and reduce BC NDP support by nearly (20%). Voters in British Columbia recognize the importance of the BC Green Party but don’t seem willing to push them toward 20% or better.
The big banks have an image problem – they represent everything that is unpopular with voters currently, they are the 1% – and Premier Dix can send the Brinks’ truck out any time after the election win to collect his bank tax – (or hire some post- secondary students to do the job).
BC New Democrats – Vancouver Island (54%); Vancouver City (47.5%); Vancouver Suburbs (46%); Langley and Fraser Valley (38%); Southern Interior (39%); Northern Interior (45%).
The BC New Democrats are dominant on Vancouver Island, Vancouver City, the Vancouver Suburbs, Northern Interior and highly competitive in the Southern Interior (Okanagan Shuswap) and Langley and the Fraser Valley.
BC Conservatives-Vancouver Island (17%); Vancouver City (9%); Vancouver Suburbs (17%); Langley and Fraser Valley (30%); Southern Interior (28%); Northern Interior (28%)
The BC Conservatives top the BC Liberals on Vancouver Island, are weak in Vancouver City – perform under their provincial average in the Vancouver Suburbs – and are taking off in the Fraser Valley – Southern Interior and Northern Interior.
BC Liberals-Vancouver Island (15%); Vancouver City (22%), Vancouver Suburbs (20%); Langley and Fraser Valley (24%), Southern Interior (24%); Northern Interior (19%);
The BC Liberals are not strong in any part of the province – they will have to hope that election money can buy votes – but to date they haven’t had success with the money that have spent.
BC Greens- Vancouver Island (14%); Vancouver City (22%);Vancouver Suburbs (15%); Langley and Fraser Valley (8%); Southern Interior (9%); Northern Interior (8%).
BC Greens are off a bit on Vancouver Island particularly the north end - but still perform well in the Greater Victoria region. The numbers are exceptional for Vancouver and solid in the suburbs dropping off in the Fraser Valley, Southern Interior and Northern Interior where the BC Conservative numbers are surging.
The BC Election begins with the governing BC Liberals in a position to win 6-10 seats – BC Conservatives 4-5 – BC Greens possibly one or two and the next government of British Columbia – The New Democrats set to win upwards of 70 seats.
Welcome the next government of British Columbia – the BC New Democratic Party.
Methodology- This is a targeted sample of 1,235 British Columbian voters sourced from the 2009 BC general provincial election. Deficiencies in the list include: (1) that an estimated 18-23% of the respondent list is unavailable; (2) the Margin of Error calculations are based on the actual population of voters in 2009 and not on the population of eligible voters or current registered voters.
This ROBBINS survey – The Most Accurate Pollster in the World for Social Media is conducted by regular telephone (“old school”) April 5-11, 2013. The Margin of Error is 2.79% plus or minus, 19 times out of 20, at a corresponding 95% confidence.
The BC NDP high end lead is (28.5%) and low end lead is (18%). The BC Liberals and BC Conservatives tied at (22%) have a high end lead over the BC Greens at high end of (14.5%) and at low end of (3.5%).
Thanks to Jim Van Rassel for contributions toward research.

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