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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics March 25, 2013
  Mar 25, 2013

Question #1
Which leader and political party in Canada do you support at this time? (Leaders and Party depicted as 100%)
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    29.75 %
Thomas Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    28.25 %
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    28.25 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    8.00 %
Daniel Paille and Bloc Quebecois Party    5.75 %
Undecided/Other    11.5 %
Question #2
According to CNN White House Producer Lesa Jensen, U.S. President Obama is claiming climate change as his administrations top priority. In you opinion would the purchase of Alberta oil to be shipped by the Keystone pipeline to Texas for refining be consistent or inconsistent with this priority?
Inconsistent    60 %
Consistent    24 %
Question #3
How important is it to you personally that Alberta export its crude oil reserves to the United States for refining?
Very Important    3 %
Important    23 %
Unimportant    42 %
Very Unimportant    24 %
Question #4
In your opinion would it be preferred if Alberta exported its crude oil reserves to:(?)
China    11 %
United States    21 %
Neither    34 %
I don't really care    21 %
Question #5
If you must chose one which of the following actions would you prefer?
The Province of Alberta exports its crude oil reserves to the United States    23 %
The Province of Alberta sells its crude oil reserves to existing Canadian refineries    45 %
Question #6
Entertainment question: Former Progressive Conservative Prime Minister Kim Campbell - a female - believes that electoral reform could be attained by decreasing the overall number of ridings in Parliament in Ottawa and electing one man and one woman from each of these ridings. Do you generally support this suggestion of method of voting reform by the former Canadian Prime Minister
Yes    37.5 %
No    43 %
Commentary
Stephen Harper's Conservative government continues to struggle with popular support among Canadians following the May 2011 federal general election, as nearly one million Canadian voters have abandoned them for other political parties or alternatively are undecided about them.
Former Conservative supporters (May 2011) have moved to, and currently remain in support of other federal political parties, specifically Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party - and Elizabeth May and the Green party.
The Conservative government of Canada has now lost (24.25%) of its national vote totals from the 2011 federal election.
The Opposition New Democrats are down slightly (6.5%) in national support from the 2011 general election, but generally maintain their 2011 electoral support in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia-Canada's 3 largest provinces. Of Canada's largest provinces holding nearly 70% of the countries seats in Parliament - Thomas Mulcair and his New Democrats currently hold (37%) support, while Justin Trudeau and his Liberals hold (33.5%) and Stephen Harper's Conservatives hold (29.5%) support.
The Conservatives have now lost (22.5%) of their previous 2011 vote support in Canada's most populous province - Ontario to Justin Trudeau and his Liberal party and to Elizabeth May and her Green party. The Conservatives have lost (32%) of their 2011 totals in Canada's 3rd most populous province - British Columbia - also to the federal Liberals and Greens.
The combined total support for Liberals and Greens in Ontario and British Columbia is 40%.
Question 2
Based on this ROBBINS National Survey of Canadians - this country believes that if U.S. President Obama approves the Keystone pipeline carrying Alberta exports of crude oil from Texas - his decision would be inconsistent with his stipulated intention to make climate change an administration priority.
The outcome(s) to this question strongly suggest that a considerable majority of Canadians associate the export/sale of crude oil as contrary to policy initiatives which oppose the proliferation of climate change.
Question 3
Question 3 reflects the personal attitude of Canadians with regard to the potential export of Alberta crude oil to the United States. Over (70%) of decided respondents are of the opinion that the sale of Alberta crude oil is "Unimportant" or "Very Unimportant" to them.
Question 4
In this question we make reference through response options to likely importers of Alberta crude oil - the United States and China - major world super powers. Double the number of respondents support the export of Alberta crude oil to the United States than to China - however the combined support for export to both countries is only one third of total.
It should be noted that "Neither" is offered as a response option - and "Both" is not, rather "I don't really care" is offered.
Question 5
Question 5 compares the export of Alberta crude oil to the United States with the sale of the oil to Canadian refineries.
The response outcomes suggest a much stronger support for the sale of Alberta crude oil to Canadian refineries than for export to United States refineries.
The working theory provided by response outcomes derived from questions 2-5 is that Canadians do not believe that the export of Alberta crude oil to the United States or China is consistent with U.S. policy of making climate change a priority, but if there is further support it is for the sale of Alberta crude oil to Canadian refineries.
Clearly the Canadian Conservative government under Stephen Harper in context of the federal budget published this week - is not remotely in synch with the Canadian people in terms of energy policy - which ought to provoke many more questions about whose interests the Government of Canada under Prime Minister Stephen Harper are acting for?
Conservative support across Canada (by province): British Columbia (30%); Alberta (54%); Saskatchewan (49%), Manitoba (42,5%); Ontario (33.5%); Quebec (11.5%); New Brunswick (40%); Nova Scotia (26%); Prince Edward Island (37%); Newfoundland and Labrador (33%).
New Democrat support across Canada: British Columbia (32%); Alberta (13.5%); Saskatchewan (26%); Manitoba (23%); Ontario (26%); Quebec (40%); New Brunswick (22%); Nova Scotia (30.5%); Prince Edward Island (16%); Newfoundland and Labrador (18%).
Liberal support across Canada: British Columbia (28%); Alberta (19.5%); Saskatchewan (22%), Manitoba (30%); Ontario (34%); Quebec (21.5%); New Brunswick (32%); Nova Scotia (37%); Prince Edward Island (41%); Newfoundland and Labrador (46%).
Green Party support across Canada: British Columbia (14%); Alberta (13%); Saskatchewan (4%); Manitoba (5%), Ontario (9%), Quebec (3%); New Brunswick (3.5%); Nova Scotia (7%); Prince Edward Island (4%); Newfoundland and Labrador (2.5%)
Future events to consider:
According to CBC News rendition of Elections Canada information reveals that Conservative MP Peter Penashue accepted 28 illegal donations in the 'suspicious' 2011 federal general election for his Labrador riding contest. These illegal donations totalled nearly $60,000 in cash and 'in kind' donations.
As a consequence Mr. Penashue has resigned his seat forcing a costly by election in which he intends to run. Also according to CBC News Yvonne Jones a member of the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly intends to challenge the Conservative candidate for this seat.
Elizabeth May leader of the Green Party of Canada has announced that her party will not run a candidate in this by election which Prime Minister Harper must call within six months.
Ms. May has called upon New Democratic and Opposition leader Thomas Mulcair to also announce that he will not run a candidate - thus providing the Liberals with the opportunity to take the seat from the Conservatives who won the riding in 2011 by less than 80 votes.
If NDP leader agrees with Elizabeth May and accepts the reality that the NDP cannot likely defeat a Conservative or a Liberal in Labrador - and in further considers that Mr. Penashue was found guilty of breaking Elections Canada laws-has admitted it - has resigned because of it - has forced an expensive by election to Canadians because of his actions - AND has announced his intentions to run again - than this collaborative effort among opposition parties - at least the Greens and New Democrats in favour of the Liberals - will mark the beginning of opposition parties working together to reduce Conservative seats as part of the STOP Harper campaign germinating nationwide - without making any administrative or legal deals in coming together.
Methodology
A targeted and strategic telephone calling of 1,214 Canadians in 10 provinces May 20-23, 2013 featuring a Margin of Error (M.O.E) of 2.81% plus or minus, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence.
Provincial margin of errors are calculated as follows: British Columbia (5.56%); Alberta (6.57%); Saskatchewan (NA); Manitoba (NA); Ontario (4.22%); Quebec (8.6%); New Brunswick (NA); Nova Scotia (11.32%); Prince Edward Island (NA); Newfoundland and Labrador (13.21%). Respondent totals were adjusted for gender for province - and for actual voting populations from 2011.

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