Robbins SCE Research
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Assessment of political parties in BC
  Sep 25, 2003

A survey of 990 respondents throughout the lower mainland, northern and interior of British Columbia. Margin or error is equal to 3.0% 19 times out of 20 at 98% competency rate.

Question #1
In your opinion which of the following five assessments out of a possible 100, with the higher numbers reflecting a better score, best depicts your personal assessment of Gordon Campbell’s BC Liberal government?
45 per cent receives    14. %
40 per cent receives    07. %
35 per cent receives    21. %
30 per cent receives    14. %
25 per cent receives    43. %
Question #2
In your opinion, which of the following five assessments out of a possible 100, with the higher numbers reflecting a better score, best depicts your personal assessment of the NDP?
40 per cent receives    11. %
35 per cent receives    32. %
Thirty per cent receives    05 %
Twenty five per cent receives    21. %
20 per cent receives    31. %
Question #3
If an election were held tomorrow would you be absolutely certain to vote for The Green Party of BC?
Yes    09. %
No    87 %
Question #4
If the BC Liberals and the NDP parties were the only two political parties you were able to vote for in the next provincial election, would you seriously consider spoiling your ballot or not voting at all?
Yes    32. %
No    68 %
Question #5
If you had to rank the BC Liberals from 1-5 with 1 being the lowest and 5 the highest what number would you give?
Number 1    44. %
Number 2    07. %
Number 3    37 %
Number 4    07 %
Number 5    02 %
Question #6
If you had to rank the BC New Democratic Party from 1-5 with 1 being the lowest and 5 the highest, what number would you give?
Number 1    26. %
Number 2    17. %
Number 3    37. %
Number 4    16. %
Number 5    14. %
Question #7
Will you vote for Paul Martin in a Spring 2004 Federal Election?
Yes    38. %
No    40 %
Question #8
In BC during a provincial election are you certain to vote for The Liberals?
Yes, I am certain I will vote for the BC Liberals    26. %
No, I am certain I will not vote for the BC Liberals    60 %
I am not certain whether or not I will vote for the BC Liberals    14 %
Question #9
Will the issue of vote-splitting influence your BC provincial vote in 2005?
Yes    26 %
No    56 %
Undecided    18. %
Question #10
In BC during a provincial election are you certain to vote for the NDP?
Yes I am certain to vote for the NDP in a provincial election    24. %
No, I am certain I will not vote for the NDP    60 %
I am uncertain whether or not I will vote for the NDP    16. %
Commentary
Contrary to what polling firms McIntyre Mustel and French firm Ipsos have stated in the past three weeks, our research does not show the BC Liberals at 45% public support. The BC Liberals and NDP are neck and neck at or below 30%. Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals have big political troubles. The largest groups of respondents see them as average or awful. Gordon Campbell has no momentum. The Green Party has a solid 9% of the vote in this survey and Vancouver Island could add them another 1 or 2 percent. Reform in British Columbia is in a good position. Even a few respondents who support BC Liberal and NDP say they will “seriously consider” voting Reform in BC.
There are four provincial political parties that are relevant in BC. Liberal, NDP, Green and Reform. The two primary parties, Liberal and NDP are currently going through a “crisis of confidence”. The NDP may or may not have a strong leader emerge from its leadership race, and Gordon Campbell is being “propped up” through media propaganda.

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