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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics February 8, 2013
  Feb 08, 2013

Question #1
If a provincial election were held in British Columbia today, which party from the choices offered would you vote for?
BC New Democrats    46.5 %
BC Liberals    34 %
BC Greens    9.5 %
BC Conservatives    9 %
Undecided    6.5 %
Question #2
If an election were held today which of the following two parties would you vote for if they were the only two available to vote for?
BC New Democrats    51 %
BC Liberals    35 %
Question #3
Which of the following response choices best reflects how you would wish to see the BC Legislature comprised by party in terms of numbers of seats and power?
A BC Liberal majority    24 %
A BC New Democrat majority    43.5 %
A BC NDP minority government    23 %
A BC Liberal minority government    8.5 %
Undecided    3 %
Question #4
Prior to the 2009 provincial election in British Columbia the BC Liberals claimed a 500 million dollar deficit, which according to BC's Auditor General turned out to be nearly $2 billion. A recent budget projection by the BC Liberals was also out by an estimated $700 million. Is the BC Liberal's finance ministry completely credible to you?
Yes    23 %
No    67 %
Question #5
Do you have COMPLETE faith, trust and confidence in all levels of government that impact you including: municipal, provincial and federal governments?
Yes    21 %
No    75 %
Question #6
British Columbians pay well over 1 billion dollars in gasoline and carbon taxes to the provincial government and Translink each year. A rise in the price of gasoline increases the amount of taxes which flow to the government bank account. With gas prices rising in many parts of the provinces of late while the government prepares it budget, how likely is it to you that this is some type of coordinated effort with oil companies to help the government improve it's revenue projections in the budget?
Very Likely    28 %
Likely    24 %
Not Very Likely    29 %
Very Unlikely    19 %
Commentary
Question 1 - The BC New Democrats appear to be headed to a massive election win on May 14, 2013 in the Province of British Columbia according this ROBBINS Sce Research survey of 2009 voters. The BC NDP leads in every region of the province with the following support: Vancouver Island (52%), Vancouver (45.5%), Suburban Vancouver (45.5%) Fraser Valley (39%), Southern Interior (41%), Northern Interior (45%).
The BC Liberals made a move forward from October 2012 to January 2013, but that momentum has stalled according to this ROBBINS survey. The BC Liberals are a distant second in every region of the province with the following support: Vancouver Island (27%), Vancouver City (37%), Suburban Vancouver (34%), Fraser Valley (33%) Southern Interior (34.5%), Northern Interior (33%).
Question 1 reveals a (12.5%) lead for the BC New Democrats over the BC Liberals.
Question 2- When only the two main parties are offered for response the BC NDP attracts (16%) more support than the BC Liberals do.
In terms of majority and minority governments, two thirds of BC voters want a BC NDP government while one third want a BC Liberal government.
Question 4 - Less than (30%) of decided respondents find the BC Liberal finance ministries budgets credible.
Question 5 - Less than one in four BC voters have "complete faith, trust and confidence in all levels of government." Three out of four DO NOT.
Question 6 - A majority of BC voters (52%) are if the opinion that there is a causal connection with recent higher gas prices and the BC Liberal budget - based on a "coordinated effort" between them.
Analysis for questions 1-3.
The BC New Democrats are heading toward a super majority government-there is no doubt about this as the evidence is overwhelming. The only question outstanding is how large the majority will be.
If Random Response ("RR")includes the undecided option in question 1 than five response choices are available. "RR" is 20%. The BC New Democrats attract (46.5%) from this question or 232.5(%) above random. The BC Liberals achieve 170(%) above random. Of the combined BC NDP and BC Liberal totals based on amounts over random the BC New Democrats attract (57.76%) of BC voter support while the BC Liberals attract (42.24%), a difference of just under (16%)5.5
In question 2 only the BC NDP and BC Liberals are offered as response choices. (86%) of respondents choose one of the two in this instance, with (51%) choosing the BC NDP and (35%) choosing the BC Liberals a difference of (16%).
In question 3 we increase the "RR" to five response choices as in question 1. However four of the five response choices are either BC NDP or BC Liberal choices (2 each) and these choices are placed in context of majority or minority government(s).
If minority responses (1 each) are excluded from our calculation we are left with 3 response choices including undecided. Because undecided is common to all response choices including minority government response choices we will exclude it as well. Only (67.5%) of BC voters desire a majority government from the May 2013 election. Of these (63.7%) desire a BC NDP majority.
Based on all five response choices in question 3 the BC NDP attracts 217.5(%) above random down (6.5%) from BC NDP totals from 5 responses in question 1. The BC Liberals attract 120(%) above random down (21.5%).
Commentary based on analysis of questions 1-3
The BC New Democrats are headed for a super majority in May 2013. Based on this ROBBINS survey the BC Liberals need to tread carefully in order to minimize their losses.
The BC New Democrats do their best against the BC Liberals when majority government is considered. Even some respondents who say they support the BC Liberals in question 1 do not want them to achieve another majority government. Their supporters are growing sick of them.
(The average BC voter is not likely aware that the liklihood of a minority government is pretty slim).
Analysis and commentary for questions 4-6
After describing the recent history of BC Liberal budgets to respondents where the information would not necessarily support a conclusion of "complete credibility" in the ministry, barely two thirds of BC Liberal supporters are willing against this 'evidence' to view the finance ministries budgets as completely credible.
Similarly in question 5 when asked about COMPLETE faith trust and confidence in all levels of government only one in five of ALL voters responds "Yes". Based on eligible voters and 2009 provincial voter turnouts this suggests that as few as one in ten eligible BC voters sees all levels of government as completely faithful, trustworthy and as having complete confidence in all levels of government. Breathtakingly awful by anyone's measure.
Final Statement based on the research.
The evidence is in from this ROBBINS survey and it is crystal clear. BC Voters want a change of government and although they are weary of majority governments they will provide one to the BC New Democrats though many may be surprised the degree of majority come the day after the election.
The BC Liberal government is down and very likely out. They are not seen as credible on finance, and they have induced in British Columbian's a complete lack of trust or confidence in any level of government.
It is disturbing to realize that the BC New Democrats may be destined for two terms of majority government based simply on the fact that BC Voters are sick of the BC Liberals and not apparently on anything the BC NDP has done in Opposition.
Methodology
A targeted survey of 1,032 BC Voters from the 2009 general provincial election. This survey was conducted February 1-7, 2013. These respondents are surveyed from a general set of lists from which 18-23% of Voters are no longer available. This survey adjusted for gender and regional population features a Margin of Error of (3%), 19 times out 20 @ 95% confidence.
Special thanks to Jim Van Rassel to part sponsorship/research. Mr. Van Rassel (604) 328-5398 is not responsible for any survey data.

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