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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics December 3, 2012
  Dec 13, 2012

Question #1
Which political party in the province of B.C. do you currently support? (Party support shown as decided to 100%)
BC New Democrats    43 %
BC Liberals    35 %
BC Conservatives    10 %
BC Greens    9 %
Other/Independent    3 %
Undecided    5.5 %
Question #2
The BC Liberal government recently represented a budget deficit of 1.85 billion dollars. BC’s Auditor General says the deficit is 30% higher than that. Who do you believe?
The BC Liberal government    28 %
The BC Auditor General    66 %
Question #3
Gas producers in the province of British Columbia receive $702 million in tax credit subsidies in order to promote oil and gas projects. Should the BC government continue with these tax credits going forward?
Yes    26 %
No    70 %
Question #4
Do you have confidence in BC’s economy doing ‘significantly better’ in the coming years?
Yes    45 %
No    43 %
Question #5
Do you support the construction of the Enbridge pipeline project across northern BC, and the expansion of the Kinder Morgan pipeline to Vancouver with the objective of shipping oil to other countries including China?
Yes    34 %
No    66 %
Question #6
Which response BEST describes your opinion of the new Port Mann toll bridge at a cost of $3 billion dollars?
It's impressive    22 %
It's about time    19.5 %
It’s too expensive and/or is bad for the environment    32 %
I don’t like the toll idea    18 %
Question #7
(Entertainment question) How important is the return of NHL hockey to you personally?
Very Important    8 %
Important    9 %
Not Very Important    51 %
I am indifferent to NHL hockey    31 %
Commentary
The lower mainland of British Columbia is most populous region of the province holding the majority of seats in the Legislature. This ROBBINS poll represents the start of the race to Election Day May 14, 2012. This poll clearly displays the fact that the BC Liberals have outdistanced the threat of the BC Conservatives in the lower mainland of the province, but continue to suffer from the residual vote split on the centre right of the political spectrum sufficient to likely cause them to lose government.
The BC New Democrats have gained some ground in important regions of the lower mainland, but have given some ground to their centre left competitors the BC Green party. The increase in the BC Green Party support in this poll also takes away from overall totals affecting BC Liberal totals negatively as well.
Based on the constituencies ROBBINS investigated through SCE discover methodology in the lower mainland and our criteria that a 10 per cent lead equals a certain win in a constituency, the BC New Democrats reflect 16 ‘certain wins’, while the BC Liberals reflect 10 ‘certain wins’.
The BC New Democrats are realizing potential opportunities for continued electoral success in the Fraser Valley following it’s by election win in Chilliwack Hope.
Across the lower mainland the governing BC Liberals possess the following support: Vancouver (39%), Burnaby (28%), Tri-City (including Port Moody) 32%, Richmond (48%), Langley/Abbotsford/Chilliwack (35%), Surrey (32%).
The Opposition BC New Democrats possess the following support: Vancouver (41%), Burnaby (53%), Tri-City (47%), Richmond (34%), Langley/Abbotsford/Chilliwack (38%), and Surrey (47%).
More than twice as many BC voters (2009) support BC Auditor General John Doyle’s opinion on BC’s finances than they do BC Liberal finance minister Mike de Jong’s. Some BC Liberal supporters in this poll prefer the Auditor General’s opinion, while some BC Conservatives and Greens aren’t sure about either opinion.
The Enbridge pipeline construction and Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion are only supported by a minority of BC voters in the lower mainland but that amount is growing owing to near (45%) support in Richmond, and high thirties in Surrey, Langley and the Fraser Valley. The cities of Vancouver and Burnaby are (30%) support for these projects.
A majority of ‘decided respondents’ are of the belief that BC’s economy with get ‘significantly’ better in the coming years. This ‘positive’ total includes respondents from all parties with highest respondents’ percentages coming from the two major parties, BC Liberals and BC New Democrats along with a noteworthy minority of respondents who simply aren’t interested.
In our ‘entertainment’ question involving the current NHL hockey stoppage there is a growing sense of simmering anger and worse – gathering indifference. The game of professional NHL hockey may be in trouble in Vancouver (and everywhere else as well).
Methodology: This is a strategic calling sample survey combining 2009 BC voters ‘ROBBINS lists’ in combination with strategic calling in each of 38 constituencies in the lower mainland of British Columbia, the most populous region of the province with each constituency receiving at least 50 interviews. This major ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) poll of 2,760 British Columbians conducted December 3-11, 2012 who are either voters from the 2009 BC general provincial election or alternatively reside in strategic calling environments in the constituency who assert that the are “likely to vote” in the May 2013 general provincial election. This poll features a margin of error of plus or minus 1.87%, 19 times out of 20 @ 95%, although ROBBINS estimates the actual margin of error around 1.11% based on the superior methodology employed.
This poll was co sponsored by Jim Van Rassel 604 328 5398 and The Westwood Associates.

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