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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics April 15, 2012
  Apr 15, 2012

Question #1
From the following list of leaders of three (3) main political parties in British Columbia, how would you rate your perception of leadership capability if “10”, is the highest number endorsement you can give and “1” is the lowest?
Christy Clark, leader of The BC Liberal Party-2.45     %
John Cummins, leader of The BC Conservative Party-3.30     %
Adrian Dix, leader of the BC New Democratic Party-5.01     %
Question #2
Do you support a merger or coalition arrangement between the BC Liberals and BC Conservatives in order to block the possibility of a New Democrat government being elected in the Province of British Columbia in the general election next year?
Yes    17.5 %
No    58.5 %
Undecided    24 %
Commentary
We believe this is likely the most definitive current assessment of BC party leadership ‘capability endorsement’ among the leaders of BC’s three main political parties based on a superior methodology.
Premier Christy Clark, leader of the BC Liberal Party has the lowest outcome. She receives more “1”’s than any other number, with “3”’s a close second and “2”’s third, with about half as many “4”’s and “5”’s as the top three selections for her. Christy Clark received (41) “6”’s and (11) “7”’s – but no “8”’s, “9”’s, or “10”’s. 1,009 of 1,120 (90%) provide a response number within the criteria prescribed.
BC Conservative leader John Cummins has the second lowest outcome. He receives more “3”’s than any other number, followed closely by “2”’s and then “4”’s. John Cummins receives nearly half as many “5”’s as “3”’s. Like Christy Clark he receives no “8”’s, “9”’s, or “10”s. 778 of 1,120 (69.5%) provide a response number within the criteria prescribed.
Adrian Dix, leader of the BC New Democratic Party has the highest outcome. He receives more “5”’s than any other number, with “7”’s and “4”’s close for second highest – then “3”’s – and “6”’s – “2”’s and “1”’s. Quite surprisingly only 721 of 1,120 (64.5%) of respondents provided a response number within the criteria prescribed – a lower percentage than both Christy Clark and John Cummins.
Christy Clark’s average on Vancouver Island was lower at (2.12), and (2.62) in the North and Interior of the Province, John Cummins was (2.52%) on Vancouver Island and (3.65) in the North and Interior. Adrian Dix was (5.4) on Vancouver Island and (4.54) in the North and Interior.
Respondents who did not produce a number for BC Conservative Leader John Cummins and who provided one for Christy Clark were inclined to a slightly higher average for the Premier @ (3.02), while those who did not produce a number of BC NDP Leader Adrian Dix and who provided one for Christy Clark were more inclined to a slightly lower number for the Premier at (2.33), while those who did not produce a number for BC NDP Leader Adrian Dix and did produce one for BC Conservative Leader John Cummins provided a slightly higher number for John Cummins (3.61).
British Columbians do not support a merger or coalition arrangement between the BC Liberals and BC Conservatives “in order to block the possibility of a New Democrat government being elected in the Province of British Columbia in the general election next year”. Less than one in four support this proposition. Slightly more than one in ten support a merger or coalition on Vancouver Island while just less than 3 in 10 support one in the North and Interior (decided respondents). Respondents who produced a number for Christy Clark in question 1 and who supported the merger were more inclined to produce a number lower than the average she received from her total (1.77), while respondents who produced a number for John Cummins in question 1 and who supported the merger produced a number similar to John Cummins overall average in question 1 @ (3.43).
Conclusion:
The BC Liberals cannot make a comeback with Christy Clark (if they are able make one at all). They are likely doomed to massive electoral failure if she remains as their leader her leadership numbers are simply too low. 23.1% of the (90%) of respondents who produced a number for her – give her a “1”, and (17.9%) give her a “2”.
Christy Clark’s only faint hope is that BC Conservative Leader John Cummins numbers are not excessively higher than hers, though his numbers are as likely to increase as decrease, while it is more likely that hers will decrease then increase based on the high numbers of lower amounts (1 and 2).
At the same time, (16.2%) of the (64.5%) of the total respondents who produce a number for Adrian Dix – give him a “5” and (14.4%) give him a “7”. Adrian Dix’s numbers are nearly double Christy Clark’s.
There is a consensus amongst all pollsters that BC Liberals and BC Conservatives are close in public support among British Columbians. Based on party leader totals in this ROBBINS NewTrend poll it would appear that the BC Conservatives will eventually ‘Trend’ ahead if Christy Clark and John Cummins remain as respective leaders of their parties, because John Cummins personal numbers are higher than Christy Clark’s and he has an opportunity to grow (and an opportunity to go lower) owing to the large minority of respondents who decided not to produce a number for him. Christy Clark’s numbers are destined to stay low or go lower based on the high numbers already in the lower numbers and her high decided number.
Where Christy Clark has the trend of her numbers around 1 and 2, John Cummins “3” is just slightly hire than his numbers in “4”.
Adrian Dix is in a similar position as John Cummins in terms of “undecided’s”, however Mr. Dix has as many decided respondents providing a “6” or “7” to him, as those who provide a “3” or “4”, so his “5” average outcome is as well protected as John Cummins “3.3” average is.
Methodology -A strategic calling environment sample of 1,120 BC “Voters” from the 2009 general provincial election, conducted April 8-14. 2012. Question 2 features a Margin of Error (M.O.E.) of 2.93%, while an estimate of MOE for question 1 would be basis points.

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