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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics February 9, 2012
  Feb 09, 2012

Question #1
British Columbia will hold 2 by-elections in the lower mainland in the coming weeks. A provincial election is expected in little more than a year. We are hoping to take the temperature of the public with regard to political party popularity at this time. If an election were held today which political leader and party would you support or are you leaning toward supporting? (Leaders and parties portrayed as percentage to 100%)
Adrian Dix and BC New Democrats-(380)    45 %
John Cummins and BC Conservatives-(211)    25 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberals-(184)    22 %
Jane Sterk and BC Greens-(58)    7 %
Undecided-(198)    19 %
Question #2
Prime Minister Stephen Harper is considering moving the age of eligibility for Old Age Pension from age 65 to 67 while Members of Parliament are eligible for pensions which are 10 to 23 times the amount received by Canadians. In your opinion is this fair?
Yes    7 %
No    83 %
Commentary
The BC New Democrats are running away with public support among eligible voters in the Province of British Columbia according to this ROBBINS New Trend poll.
Vancouver Island support for the NDP is (53.5%) while lower mainland support is (46%), and north and interior support is (35%). Currently the BC New Democrats would win 54 seats if an election were held today with the possibility of winning another 6-8 on top of that.
The BC Conservatives are currently holding (25%) of provincial support with (22%) on Vancouver Island, (24%) in the lower mainland, and (30%) in the north and interior of the province. The BC Conservatives could challenge for 12-20 provincial seats with this support.
The BC Liberals have dropped over one half of voter support from the 2009 provincial general election and presently sit at (22%) support, with (14%) on Vancouver Island, (23%) in the lower mainland and (30%) in the north and interior of the province. If these numbers hold up the BC Liberals would win 10-12 seats at best.
There is no doubt the government is in very serious political trouble – and without drastic action soon heading toward possible political oblivion.
Gender is well reflected in this ROBBINS New Trend poll. An amazing (62%) of all women support the BC New Democrats on Vancouver Island, while a considerable (54%) of all women support the BC New Democrats in the lower mainland of the province. BC Conservatives support is constituted of (60%) eligible male voter.
There is ALSO no doubt that British Columbians are overwhelmingly opposed to “Prime Minister Stephen Harper considering (sic) moving the age of eligibility for Old Age Pension from age 65 to 67 while Members of Parliament are eligible for pensions which are 10 to 23 times the amount received by Canadians.” The anecdote underneath is interesting however - as some respondents are just angry at all Members of Parliament and others just angry at Stephen Harper and his Party.
Young MP’s from Opposition parties who have yet to earn a platinum pension, need to speak against gold plated MP pensions immediately before Stephen Harper ‘spins’ their members for being hypocrites (for collecting a pension) while they criticizing the government for considering moving the age for eligibility for OAS from age 65 to 67 (and not anytime soon).
Christy Clark’s BC Liberals are in desperate trouble. This problem started with Gordon Campbell, his 2009 election deception, the monster issue of the HST which has not been resolved to the satisfaction of voters, and new leader Christy Clark’s inability to inspire (anyone it would seem). This problem is compounded by the legitimate rise of a centre right alternative in the BC Conservatives – and the overarching fact recently reiterated by Keith Baldrey of Global News on CKNW that after 10 years people get tired of government. The main kicker for the BC Liberals may be that a type of anti BC Liberal bandwagon has occurred and there appears to be nothing that can stop it.
Voter support fell from 46.5% at 2009 to under 30% through the HST trouble, bumped a little with Christy Clark’s election to the lead, but has now fallen steadily off as British Columbians realize that Ms. Clark falls seriously short of having what is takes to run a province. This may not be the bottom of the trough for the governing Liberals without some dramatic intervention – immediately.
In contrast to the plight of the BC Liberal Party, British Columbians are desperate for relief -- and while many of these voters refuse to go to the BC New Democrats, others are, while those who supported the NDP in the past are excited and energized at the prospect “caring and compassion” coming back to government.
Men who supported Gordon Campbell’s coalition are now strongly supporting John Cummins and the BC Conservatives. There is an odd sense that no matter the prospect of a New Democrat government in 2013 – BC Conservative supporters will begin to rebuild opposition for a return to centre right government in 2017. What is not well understood by these voters is that the BC NDP could win 60 seats – which would support an unequivocal mandate for a BC New Democrat government, an opportunity to completely reverse any policies instituted by the BC Liberals – and the potential for two terms.
The issue of changing the age of eligibility of Old Age Pension may grow mold on Stephen Harper’s rock of government, and could negatively impact on his partnership with the BC Liberal provincial government and possibly his unofficial arrangement with John Cummins BC Conservatives, and put a great wind behind the sail of the BC New Democrats and federal New Democrats as well.
This ROBBINS New Trend poll is a random telephone sample from Telus white pages and other of 1,048 British Columbians - between January 28-February 8, 2012 0 who are eligible to vote in BC provincial elections. This poll features a margin of error of 3.03%, 19 times out of 20 at 95% confidence.
This ROBBINS New Trend poll is sponsored in part by Jim Van Rassel who has selected the option of donating proceeds to the Gleneagle High School Girls Rugby Team – BC’s 2011 Story of Courage in High School Athletics (placing 6th in provincial finals with a player short, no spares, and two injured players) –.

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