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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics July 11, 2011
  Jul 11, 2011

Question #1
Which leader and party in British Columbia do you currently support?
Adrian Dix and BC New Democrats    43 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberals    35.5 %
John Cummins and BC Conservatives    12 %
Jane Sterk and BC Greens    5.5 %
Chris Delaney and BC First    3 %
Other    1 %
Undecided/Can‘t Answer    34 %
Question #2
How important is the construction of Rapid Transit systems like the Evergreen Line to you?
Important    48 %
Unimportant    52 %
Undecided    1 %
Question #3
The Evergreen Line from Burnaby to Port Moody and Coquitlam is $400 million short - from the following responses only - who should pay the shortfall?
Federal government    28 %
Provincial government    57.5 %
Both Federal and Provincial governments    15 %
Property Owners    00 %
Undecided    00 %
Question #4
John McComb - broadcaster with CKNW radio in British Columbia believes that AirCare should be gotten rid of and the $75 million dollar cost used to pay for the Evergreen Line and other Rapid Transit. Do you?
Agree    32.5 %
Disagree    49 %
Undecided/Can’t Answer    18.5 %
Question #5
From the following response choices only which - in your opinion - is the BEST source to fund Rapid Transit like the Evergreen Line in Tri-City British Columbia?
Use Carbon Taxes - Other taxes from Gasoline    55 %
Use the money saved getting rid of AirCare    18 %
Other Source/Undecided    27 %
Question #6
(Additional) Have you received your HST ballot in the mail?
Yes    86.5 %
No    13.5 %
Question #7
(Additional) Do you support the HST?
Yes    45 %
No    55 %
Commentary
In the midst of a very high number of Undecided respondents (Q #1) - Adrian Dix and The BC New Democrats - - lead Christy Clark and the BC Liberals in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia from Vancouver City through to Langley including Pitt Meadows and Mission. The BC NDP hold their 2009 provincial general election totals, while the BC Liberals are down 23% from that same time. The BC Conservatives appear to have absorbed this support from the BC Liberals based on these numbers, while the BC Green Party appears to have less impact on the BC New Democrat ambitions based on this ROBBINS poll of public opinion.
Based on these numbers the BC Liberals would likely lose 6-9 seats to the BC New Democrats in this ROBBINS Strategic Calling Environment.
Respondents are split on their opinion of the importance of the construction of the Evergreen Line, (particular to Tri-City B.C. pop. 220 K plus-or one tenth of total polling environment) and other Rapid Transit systems - though approximately 60% of respondents from Tri-City B.C. are of the opinion that the Evergreen Line and Rapid Transit is “Important” based on sub sample of total.
Respondents (Two-thirds-decided) believe the B.C. provincial government should pay the additional $400 million shortfall to fund the Evergreen Line and other Rapid Transit (not necessarily Evergreen Line - based on anecdote). This position is affirmed by a similar number of respondents who want to use Carbon Taxes - Other taxes from Gasoline to fund the Evergreen Line and other Rapid Transit--supported primarily by BC Liberal - BC NDP and BC Green supporters.
These numbers differ from a recent BCAA poll of it’s members which suggests that 60% want the federal government to pay. (Trace Acres/BCAA - CKNW). (The suggestion inherent with these BCAA results may be that owners/drivers of motor vehicles who pay registration for BCAA are probably less likely to use Rapid Transit - given the extra investment in their vehicle -- could it also be presumed that owners/drivers who can afford a BCAA membership are more inclined to have people from other provinces take financial responsibility for their Rapid Transit systems?).
Respondents clearly don’t want property owners to pay for construction of the Evergreen Line and other Rapid Transit - as the 00% outcome affirms. How angry will property owners become when they find out there of the ‘secret’ plan to allocate nearly $30 extra dollars per year of property taxes from increased taxation to fund infrastructure?
The vast majority of respondents have received their HST ballot - while some who responded “No” also indicated that they had “not been to their mail box recently.”
In our previous ROBBINS poll involving the HST respondents in the Lower Mainland of B.C. indicated 52% support for the tax - in this poll only 45% from the same region support it-just barely in the range of Margin of Error. The majority of respondents who responded “No” to not receiving their H.S.T. ballot - indicated they support the H.S.T.
Supporters and Opponents of the H.S.T. were generally in agreement on who should pay for Rapid Transit like the Evergreen Line - (the provincial government - carbon taxes/gas taxes).
The results of this ROBBINS poll are pretty clear. What is most interesting is the higher number of respondents who support positions on tax policy - including the fact(s) that more British Columbians in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia support the B.C. government paying the shortfall on the Evergreen Line - than support both the BC Liberal government and BC NDP Opposition combined - AND - that nearly an approximately equal number who support funding the Evergreen Line (and other Rapid Transit) are of the opinion that Carbon Taxes - Other taxes from Gasoline should be used to pay for this. Quite obviously British Columbians in the Lower Mainland are quite happy to take their respective decisions out of the hands of provincial politicians who are often either not perceived as trustworthy, acting in their interests nor attractive to them.
There are nearly as many respondents opposed to the H.S.T. as support the BC Liberal government and BC NDP Opposition combined - an important consideration for MLA’s.
It is important to underscore the point that just because a respondent finds the Evergreen Line and other Rapid Transit “Unimportant” does not necessarily suggest they don’t believe this Rapid Transit should be built. There is a slightly higher number of respondents 38% who believe the federal government or federal government-provincial government should jointly be responsible for the $400 million shortfall on the Evergreen Line and other Rapid Transit - if the Evergreen Line and other Rapid Transit is to be funded at all - based on limited response options. It is noteworthy that Undecided or other anecdotal response - did not materialize to any degree - and the response choices were easily accepted (Q#2-5).
Respondents 67% who support Jane Sterk and the BC Green Party - find Rapid Transit “Important” and a similar number and higher - believe the B.C. provincial government and Carbon Taxes - Other taxes from Gasoline - (though a few respondents believe this Rapid Transit should be “Free” “Not Expensive”). Many respondents who support John Cummins and BC Conservatives support “getting rid of AirCare” to pay for Rapid Transit (and anecdotally getting rid of it anyhow).
80% of Christy Clark BC Liberal support also supports the H.S.T., while 84% of Adrian Dix BC NDP support is opposed to the H.S.T. 54% of John Cummins and BC Conservative supports the H.S.T., 63% of Jane Sterk and BC Green supports the H.S.T. while 80% of Chris Delaney and BC First is opposed to the H.S.T. (adjusted).
Among respondents who selected a Leader and a Party - 46.2% (adjusted) support of the H.S.T. marginally higher than the number who support the H.S.T. overall.
Essentially, because the relative support for the HST from each major party - BC Liberals and BC New Democrats - - is about the same - the fact that support for Christy Clark and BC Liberals is lower than support for Adrian Dix and BC New Democrats in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia is possibly the difference between winning and losing on the H.S.T Referendum.
The high number of Undecided for any Leader and Party may or may not impact on the number of mail in ballots caste by Registered voters in the Province.
The high number of respondents who indicated that they had received their H.S.T. ballots - and the high number of those who later indicated they supported the H.S.T. -- strongly suggests that this random sample of telephone respondents in this ROBBINS poll are also Registered voters in the Province of British Columbia.
A random telephone sample of 652 respondents “Old enough to vote” from Telus White Pages (telephone books) Including: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Delta, Langley, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North and West Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, Surrey, Vancouver and White Rock between July 08-11, 2011. The Margin of Error in this poll is 3.84% plus or minus, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence. This poll was funded in part by Jim Van Rassel (604) 942-2008 through both financial and “In Kind” research support.
Special thanks to Robbins family friends -Bear and Gretchen Hamilton- of Salmon Arm (Sorrento Nurseries) in beautiful Okanagan - British Columbia.

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