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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics January 25, 2011
  Jan 25, 2011

Question #1
Have you received you mail in ballot on the HST Referendum from Elections BC yet?
Yes    00 %
No    100 %
Question #2
Based on your experience, perceptions and opinion to date if you were choosing today which position would you support? (rotated)
I would vote to keep the H.S.T. and the accompanying reduction from 12% to 11% in 2012 and to 10% in 2014    44.5 %
I would vote to return to the PST/GST of 12% including the number of exemptions for the P.S.T. included    52.5 %
Question #3
Have you received any information in the mail from the BC Government or other government agency relating to this Referendum on the H.S.T. in recent weeks?
Yes    12.5 %
No    84 %
Commentary
Background to THIS ROBBINS - HST poll.
(Vancouver, British Columbia) Glen P. Robbins - The 1st HST - 2 billion dollar poll (This is not an Internet Poll) 37.5% support HST in Lower Mainland-Polls on the HST -
Published June 5, 2011 (two days after the reported June 3, 2011 BC Liberal Government information mail-out on the H.S.T. “to every home in British Columbia”.
Which of the following consumption taxes do you prefer? (“Neither” not offered as a choice-1023 responses). (Current) Harmonized Sales Tax (HST)-37.5% (Former) Provincial Sales Tax (PST) plus GST-55.5% Neither/Undecided/All Other-7%
Which of the following consumption taxes do you prefer? (“Neither” offered as a choice-512 responses) (Current) Harmonized Sales Tax (HST)-32% (Former) Provincial Sales Tax (PST) plus GST-54% Neither-14%
According to the suggested results of these ROBBINS respondents - On June 5th, 2011 prior to information on the H.S.T. being sent to B.C. homes by the Government of B.C. the decided support for the H.S.T. was approximately (38%) while the support for a return to the PST/GST was (59.5%).
Then THIS ROBBINS poll published on June 13, 2011 with the information on the H.S.T. having been delivered to all B.C. homes.
(Vancouver British Columbia) Glen P. Robbins - The 2nd HST poll - Doin' the Sheila Fraser for BC - Polls on the HST
In the upcoming Referendum on the H.S.T. - based on your opinion today - will you vote to “extinguish” - get rid of - the H.S.T.? Yes-46% No-41% Undecided-13%
On June 13, 2011 approximately one week after the information on the H.S.T. was sent out to B.C. homes support for the H.S.T. was 41% (raw) and (46.5%) decided. Support by inference for the PST/GST would be (53.5%) decided - though the poll deficiency was that it did not name the PST/GST choice as a response choice.
Delivery of mail stopped in BC at or about June 15, 2011 and as at publishing of this ROBBINS poll the Canada Post Corporation continues to lock out postal workers in British Columbia as evidence by the response in Question 1 that no respondents in the Lower Mainland of B.C. had received their mail in ballot on the H.S.T. Referendum.
And Then THIS:
(Vancouver, British Columbia) HST poll: Is BC Premier Christy Clark in Love with Glen P. Robbins
On June 23, 2011 - Two weeks to 18 days after the publication of our 1st ROBBINS poll on the H.S.T. and approximately two weeks after information from the BC Government began to land in the mail boxes of B.C. homes this question by ROBBINS:
Based on your experience, perceptions and opinion to date if you were choosing today which position would you support? (rotated)
I would vote to keep the H.S.T. and the accompanying reduction from 12% to 11% in 2012 and to 10% in 2014-(44.5%)
I would vote to return to the PST/GST of 12% including the number of exemptions for the P.S.T. included-(52.5%)
One can readily see - based on the varied questions on the H.S.T that support for the new consumption tax policy has increased from approximately (38%) decided to nearly (46%) decided an increase of (21%) support in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia.
Over the same period of time - support for the PST/GST has decreased from (60%) to (54%) or a decrease of (10%) support.
What is interesting is that there were (12.5%) of respondents in this June 23, 2011 ROBBINS poll who indicated they have received information in the mail from the Government of B.C.
Have you received any information in the mail from the BC Government or other government agency relating to this Referendum on the H.S.T. in recent weeks?
Yes-12.5% No-85% Undecided-2.5%
A large majority (78%) of the minority of respondents who indicated that they received information on the H.S.T. “in recent weeks” also supported the H.S.T. when asked in this poll. There is a clear correlation between between the mail out of Government information on the H.S.T (and Government advertising through other medium) and increased support for the H.S.T. through the period of June 5, 2011 to June 23, 2011 a period of 18 days - one half of which occurred during a mail strike which would NOT have impacted on the BC Government mail out of material on the H.S.T. (commencing June 3, 2011).
The relationship between respondents who acknowledge receiving the Government information and who support the H.S.T (75% + -) and support for the H.S.T. generally in this ROBBINS poll (44.5%) - and conversely the minority support for the PST/GST from the respondent pool who acknowledge receipt of BC Government information in this mail - plus the fact that only (36.5%) of women who DID NOT acknowledge receiving information ---- also support the H.S.T. -- while (64.5%) of women who acknowledge receiving the Government mail out support the H.S.T. supports a causal relationship between receipt of the BC Government information on the H.S.T. and increased support for the H.S.T. An incredible (84%) of men respondents who received the Government mail out also support the H.S.T. while men are generally split on support for the tax.
Women who received the Government mail out on the H.S.T. were approximately 77% more likely to support the tax than women respondents generally, while men were 68% more likely to support the tax.
(Men had a lower rate of participation in the poll (37%) and overall numbers as to gender participation had to be adjusted accordingly. We don’t know if respondents who don’t like the H.S.T. didn’t simply throw the mail out away and indicate they did not receive one - or conversely those who really support the H.S.T. didn’t just say they received the mail out to buffer their response position).
Conclusion:
This ROBBINS poll provides some evidence to suggest a theory that advertising by the BC Government including specifically mail out information relating to the decision on the H.S.T. Referendum - (without commenting on the nature of that advertising or information)-------- worked well to bring more support for the H.S.T. among British Columbians in the Lower Mainland of the Province over the period of June 5, 2011 to June 23, 2011.
Considering the Referendum/Survey mail out ballots -scheduled to be delivered June 13, 2011 throughout most regions outside the Lower Mainland/ - and on June 20, 2011 throughout the Lower Mainland of the Province//--with a final date for receipt of the ballots by Elections BC - determined as July 23, 2011/// --- and the slim likelihood that any have been received by British Columbians to date////--and Canada Post not delivering any mail as at publishing date///// - and the further likelihood that ballots will need to be mailed by July 19, 2011 to be received////// - by mail/////// - or delivered to places for receipt of ballots//////// - that with Monday being June 26, 2011 and Canada Day Holidays the following weekend and HST rebate cheques being mailed at or about July 5, 2011 to SOME British Columbians///////// ------- it will be very interesting to see how this ironic set of circumstances - of a Government Referendum/Survey coupled with an unusual Federal lock out of postal works at the same time - will impact on the Government’s success (or lack of it) on increasing support for the H.S.T. with about a 2 week window rather than a 5 week window for British Columbians to make their decision.
It will also be interesting based on the information in this ROBBINS poll what comment (if any) will be made by H.S.T. opponents with regards to the content and format of the information sent by The Government to British Columbians with regard to the H.S.T. and upcoming H.S.T. Referendum/Survey and whether or not H.S.T. opponents will also use Canada Post to mail out an information brochure which highlights their position on the matter - particularly with the rabid speculation that Gordon Campbell the author of the H.S.T. in BC is being appointed to a plum federal job ---in the United Kingdom ---
A random sample from telephone books of 642 respondents throughout the lower mainland of British Columbia between June 20-23, 2011. Final numbers were adjusted to reflect a lower proportion of men respondents from raw data. The Margin of Error for this ROBBINS poll is 3.87%, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence.
An honorarium was provided by New Trend Optical of Port Coquitlam, B.C. (604) 942-2008 - with the balance of the cost of this independent poll paid by the pollster Glen P. Robbins. All respondents solicited are told that this is an “Independent poll - we pay for it.”
Glen P. Robbins

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