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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics June 17, 2011
  Jun 17, 2011

Question #1
Do you CURRENTLY - support - BOTH The Christy Clark BC Liberal Government AND the H.S.T.? (adjusted)
Yes    31.1 %
No    67.4 %
Undecided    1.5 %
Question #2
Do you have children under age 15 residing in your home?
Yes    25 %
No    75 %
Question #3
Do you reside in a detached house or other type of dwelling?
Detached House    53 %
Other type of Dwelling    47 %
Refused to Answer (3)    00 %
Commentary
Better than two thirds of respondents in this ROBBINS poll of Lower Mainland residents DO NOT support BOTH The Christy Clark BC Liberal Government AND the H.S.T.
(16%) of respondents with children under age 15, particularly women respondents-- support BOTH the Clark BC Liberal government AND the H.S.T. These folks would be P.S.T. exempt on many items including most clothing and footwear - and it appears they may be the main demographic that brings the H.S.T. down in the Referendum.
If the H.S.T. fails--and the P.S.T is returned to how it was before - all of the trouble -- watch Christy’s numbers jump from this demographic - so long as the Government doesn’t punish the people for their own foolhardiness.
Christy Clark and her new improved H.S.T. combined---where supported---- are supported equally by people living in a “Detached Home” or “Other Dwelling”.
Depending on where you believe support for the H.S.T. IS----(out of 100%)// is the benchmark from which you will ultimately determine the value of these ROBBINS polling numbers derived from the Lower Mainland of the Province of British Columbia.
ROBBINS believes-- generally--- that support for the H.S.T. in the Lower Mainland of the province is around 40% and lower than this in the North and Interior and Vancouver Island. This would suggest that support for BOTH The Christy Clark Liberal government and the H.S.T. is 75% of the support for the H.S.T. plus or minus in the Lower Mainland of the Province.
Factoring 40% support for the H.S.T. in the Lower Mainland of the Province of British Columbia and the sample size herein--- the suggested HIGH correlation between support for the --Clark BC Liberal Government and the H.S.T.---- relative to the H.S.T. alone is 87% --- while the low is 69%.
This is interesting - because at the high side or 88% correlation - this means that British Columbians somewhat closely correlate the sponsor of the new HST - the Clark BC Liberal government - and their support for the tax itself. If support for the HST were - say - 38% in the Lower Mainland and not 40% - then the correlation (on the high side) would be nearly 92%.
HOWEVER---On the low side -- the correlation is two thirds support for the Clark government compared to support for the H.S.T.
In any event, this ROBBINS poll strongly suggests that in the Lower Mainland of the Province of British Columbia support for BOTH the Christy Clark BC Liberal Government and the HST is lower than support for the HST alone on balance of probabilities. Anecdote underneath -- although not remotely scientific-- supports this. A noteworthy minority of respondents took a considerable length of time answering question #1 - some/ suggesting - they liked Christy or the BC Liberals but not the H.S.T. while others said they accept the new improved H.S.T. version of Christy Clark - but “are sick of the BC Liberals”---//or simply don’t like Christy Clark---but after delay - almost all of these respondents answered “No”.
What impact will winning or losing---the H.S.T. Referendum have on Christy Clark’s chances of winning a general election if one is called in the Fall of 2011? Is Christy Clark the sacrificial political lamb - for big business and Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s vain attempt at ‘nation building’ ----consumption tax--// or--//-- will a close call in the Referendum vote - and a resulting Referendum loss - actually provide Christy Clark with respect for taking it from a ‘dead dog loser’ to ‘in the game’ --- and increased support from consumers/voters relieved that this H.S.T. debate/debacle is finally over and done?
Or are more British Columbians just sick and fed up with the BC Liberal Government---but given to mitigate trouble over getting rid of the H.S.T -- and other ancillary political threats - but in return ready to roast the Government for the misery it caused--even if they vote it in.
Methodology - A random telephone sample through the phone book of 502 residents/respondents in the Lower Mainland of the Province of British Columbia between June 14-17, 2011. The Margin of Error (M.O.E.) for this ROBBINS poll is 4.37 plus or minus, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence. (Margin of Error based on American Research Group, Inc.).
This poll was sponsored in part by New Trend Optical - in downtown Port Coquitlam British Columbia (604) 942-2008 If you are looking for great looking eyewear - including all the latest looks for summer go in and tell--that’s right tell the owner - Jim Van Rassel--- that you want a great deal on your new frames and eyewear -- the great service and (believe me) fun atmosphere at New Trend Optical and at all the stores and shops in downtown Port Coquitlam is all FREE!
Tell him Glen P. sent you.

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