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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics June 5, 2011
  Jun 05, 2011

Question #1
Which of the following consumption taxes do you prefer? (“Neither” not offered as a choice-1023 responses).
(Current) Harmonized Sales Tax (HST)    37.5 %
(Former) Provincial Sales Tax (PST) plus GST    55.5 %
Neither/Undecided/All Other    7.0 %
Question #2
Which of the following consumption taxes do you prefer? (“Neither” offered as a choice-512 responses)
(Current) Harmonized Sales Tax (HST)    32.0 %
(Former) Provincial Sales Tax (PST) plus GST    54.0 %
Neither    14.0 %
Question #3
Do you have any children under age 18 residing where you live?
Yes    23.5 %
Question #4
Do you have any seniors residing where you live?
Yes    37 %
No    63 %
Question #5
Do you reside in a:
Detached Home    54.0 %
Condominium/Townhouse/Apartment    46.0 %
Commentary
The H.S.T. has an uphill battle to win 51% at Referendum-to be held weeks from now. Among the nearly 1,000 (Decided) respondents in the larger of the two polling samples (question 1 only) - which did not offer// Neither, Undecided, Other// as a response choice - (40.5%) support the H.S.T. while (59.5%) support the (former) P.S.T. and G.S.T. consumption tax policy of the B.C. provincial government.
Among 512 - the smaller sample offered in queston 2 herein-- where “Neither” was an actual response choice offered - (14%) answered “Neither” to the H.S.T. and/or PST/GST Referendum option and (37%) decided - chose the H.S.T. response option while (63%) decided chose the PST/GST. The response option "Neither" offered as a selection caused more respondents to move away more from the H.S.T. -as a consumption tax policy - than from the (former) P.S.T. and G.S.T. tax policy.
In the combined sample of 1,535 respondents (23.5%) had children under the age of 18 “residing where they (sic) live.” The lowest support for the H.S.T. was among this category of respondent at (29%). (15%) of this category did not support either the H.S.T. or PST/GST in the larger sample, while (23%) of this category did not support either the H.S.T. or PST/GST in the smaller sample where the response option “Neither” was offered.
Women are more likely NOT to support the H.S.T. than men at (35%) - with women respondents with children under age 18 supporting the H.S.T. (27.5%).
(34%) of respondents had seniors “residing where they (sic) live.” (34%) of respondents with seniors residing where they live support the H.S.T. On average (11%) of this category did not support either the H.S.T. or PST/GST.
(18%) of respondents had both----- children under age 18 -and- at least one senior “residing where they (sic) live” with (33%) of these respondents supporting the H.S.T.
Residents with no children under age 18 or seniors supported the H.S.T. (41.5%) of the time.
(53%) of respondents in this combined poll indicated they lived in a detached house. (37.5%) of respondents residing in a detached house support the H.S.T. (39%) of women respondents in this poll residing in a detached house support the H.S.T., while (33.5%) of men residing in a detached house support the HST.
Respondents living in a condominium/townhouse/apartment support the HST (37%) however (44%) of men living in these types of residents who are respondents in this poll support the H.S.T. and (67.5%) of women respondents in these types of home support a return to the PST/HST.
In this poll (62%) of women with children under age 18 live in a detached house.
Here is how this poll of lower mainland respondents breaks down. If you have child/children under 18 and you are a female respondent you are much more likely NOT to support the H.S.T. If you are female with a child under age 18 living in a home that is not a detached house you are the LEAST likely to support the H.S.T. If you are a female respondent with child/children and at least one senior resident in your home that is not a detached house you are most likely NOT TO SUPPORT ANY TAXES.
If you are a male respondents living in a home that is not a detached house you are the most likely to support the H.S.T., while your male counterpart residing in a detached house is nearly -25%- less likely to support the H.S.T. than you are.
If family is described as containing any children under age 18 or senior(s) and the respondent providing this information is a woman - - then the H.S.T. is not putting the family first in the minds of these British Columbians and BC Liberal Government leader Christy Clark's policy is failing.
If you are male with no children under age 18 or seniors where you live - and you live in a condominium/townhouse or apartment you are more likely to support the H.S.T.
The Harmonized Sales Tax does less well among those respondents offered the response option of “Neither” as the total supporting the HST when the “Neither” option is offered - and while Undecided is constantly low - drops (15%) - and the corresponding percentage drop for the PST/GST is only (3%).
The Government of British Columbia really have their work cut out for them. They must convince at least 51% of the population to mail in their Referendum ballot and voter for their H.S.T tax when only (40%-decided) and (37.5%-net) support it now and many of those who do support it are a little vague in their support - while most of those against it - are quite certain (based on anecdote).
Methodology- Warning there may be a higher number of detached houses represented in this poll from some of the city contributors in this poll - including but particularly the City of Vancouver than may (actually) exist according to information from city and municipal websites. For instance, Vancouver has far more apartments than detached homes - and as one moves east to the suburbs there are more detached homes - though (apparently) respondents living in detached homes are more likely to respond to the telephone - and subsequent polling questions. There may also be an overestimation of homes with seniors resident there - then based on actual data - as seniors represent a smaller portion of the population overall then the percentage represented as living in the home in this poll. This could be explained by the fact that some seniors may be living in homes where there are a higher number of potential respondents.
1,535 respondents by telephone random sampling – THIS IS NOT AN INTERNET POLL - between June 2-5 2011 on the H.S.T. among British Columbians residing in the lower mainland of the province - The 2 billion dollar H.S.T. vote. This ROBBINS Sce Research poll features a margin of error of 2.5% plus or minus, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence. This poll is sponsored in part by New Trend Optical of Port Coquitlam, British Columbia 604 942-2008.
Glen P. Robbins -30-

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