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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics May 1, 2011
  May 01, 2011

Question #1
In your opinion does new BC Liberal Party leader Christy Clark ‘have what it takes’ to replace longtime BC Premier Gordon Campbell as the new MLA in the by-election to replace him in Vancouver Point Grey?
Yes-(25)    35.7 %
No-(23)    31.4 %
Undecided/Can’t Answer/All Other    31.5 %
Question #2
There are media reports that Christy Clark refuses to debate all other candidates at town hall meetings in the Vancouver Point Grey by-election slated for May 11, 2011 just over one week following the federal general election slated for May 2, 2011. One of those candidates Christy will not debate is BC New Democrat candidate David Eby former Executive Director of the BC Civil Liberties Association. Which of the following reasons might BEST explain Christy Clark’s refusal to participate?
She may be afraid she won’t do well in the debate-(31)    44.2 %
She may not see the debates as the best use of her time-(17)    24.2 %
Undecided/Can’t Answer/All Other    31.5 %
Commentary
This random sample of 70 men and women in the British Columbia riding of Vancouver Point Grey - where a by-election is set to replace retired former BC Premier Gordon Campbell-May 11, 2011 reflects a number of interesting insights beginning with the obvious high Undecided.
Is this high Undecided simply a reflection of normal voter response during elections (lower provincial turnout) or perhaps an indication that the federal election and the massive increase in support for Jack (Wild Thing) Layton and the New Democratic All-Star Political Rock Band--is sucking up all of the attention----or is it that Gordon Campbell’s departure has induced a lack of interest in the by-election set for immediately after the federal general election?
The good news for BC Liberal leader Christy Clark is that (53.1%) of Decided respondents answer “Yes” she has ‘what it takes’. The bad news is that few of these respondents are enthusiastic about her - and more “don’t know much about her”. Her support is more about Liberal support than support for Christy Clark.
She remains very deep in Gordon Campbell’s immense shadow - as talk begins about whether or not the former winner of three BC provincial elections will make a move federally to replace - Michael Ignatieff (Liberal) or Stephen Harper (Conservative) = (Progressive Conservative) depending on the outcome of the federal general election - where one or both of these leaders are bound to be disappointed--and replaced.
More than a few respondents who answered “Yes” in question 1 made somewhat negative comments about her afterward which mirrored more emphatic comments from those respondents who answered “No”. “She was the worst BC Liberal Minister”, “She was a lousy Education Minister”, “I was surprised Gordon Campbell kept her around.” Some who supported Christy Clark did so “because she isn’t the NDP”.
Only (24.2%) (34.5% Decided) respondents were willing to agree that town hall election debates were “not the best use” of Christy’s time. The problem for Christy is that (65.5% Decided) agreed that “she may be afraid”--and the bigger problem for her is that some of the respondents in question 1 who answered “Yes” or were “Undecided et al” determined that Christy “may be afraid” in question 2.
SCE Research Executive Director Jim Van Rassel takes the position that Christy Clark made the decision to hold the by-election in Vancouver Point Grey after the commencement of the federal general election where pollsters such as Ipsos Reid reflected a majority for Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party of Canada who supports the Liberal Party in British Columbia--believed she could run under that cover and pop out the other side of the federal election an easy winner in Vancouver Point Grey.
This Glen P. Robbins small survey culture suggests that if Mr. Van Rassel’s theory is correct - Christy miscalculated on that assumption.
A random sample of 70 men and women within the provincial electoral constituency (riding) of Vancouver Point Grey April 28-29, 2011. No margin of error declared as sample size is too small.

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