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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics April 19, 2011
  Apr 19, 2011

Question #1
Which of the following federal leaders and party in this Canadian federal general election do you support? (Percentages based on 100% approximately with Undecided denoted beneath).*
Stephen Harper and Conservatives    35.56 %
Michael Ignatieff and Liberals    30.04 %
Jack Layton and New Democrats    20.43 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois    8.43 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party    5.31 %
Undecided    7.62 %
Commentary
Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party is DOWN in public support in every Province in Canada. The Conservative Party holds current support in the Province of Ontario (38.5%), a total that is close to what the party achieved in that province in the 2008 federal general election (39.4%).
The Conservatives achieve decided support amounts in this Official ROBBINS Canada poll of (38%) in British Columbia, (56%) in Alberta, (48%) in Saskatchewan, (42%) in Manitoba, (38.5%) in Ontario, (19%) in Quebec, (33%) in New Brunswick, (27%) in Nova Scotia, (29%) in Prince Edward Island, and (28%) in Newfoundland and Labrador.
From 2008 general election totals The Conservative Party of Canada is DOWN in public support (14.5%) in British Columbia, (13.5%) in Alberta, (10.8%) in Saskatchewan, (14.1%) in Manitoba, (1.8%) in Ontario, (12.5%) in Quebec, (16.2%) in New Brunswick, (20%) in Prince Edward Island, and they are UP (3%) in Nova Scotia and (68.7%) in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The Reform Party of Canada achieved (19.4%) nationally in 1997, merged with the Progressive Conservative Party who achieved (18.8%) in that same Canadian election, prior to the 2004 federal general election where the amalgamated party - The Conservative Party of Canada achieved total voter support across of (29.6%). The pre-Conservative Party of Canada numbers could impact significantly on the future of the party depending on the results of this May 2011 election.
In 2006 Canada’s new Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party of Canada achieved (36.3%) voter support followed by (37.7%) in the 2008 federal general election. This Official ROBBINS Canada poll determines that the Conservative Party is now just below 2006 voter support. Considering that a portion of the popular support lost exists in the Prairies provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba) where the Conservative Party support is exceptionally strong it is difficult to determine if any there are any constituency casualties. British Columbia is showing evidence of potential seat losses – of 2, 4 or 5 seats. It is not entirely out of the realm of possibility that the Conservatives could win seats in B.C. but balance of probabilities suggests they hold what they have or lose a couple.
Conservatives are holding their breath in Quebec. After the minority of elected Officials there failed to convert their promise to bring dollars for hockey to the province, arrogant bargaining over the HST – if they keep the seats they have in Quebec – they are fortunate. New Brunswick could bode badly for the Conservatives with the possibility of up to three seat losses there including the Minister of National Revenue (at dissolution). Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s political future depends on all provinces – but most importantly Ontario. If he gives ground in that Province – the end result nationally – is likely the ultimate realization that he won’t hold Parliament after the election, which will be the beginning of the end of his leadership.
Michael Ignatieff’s Liberal Party is in the hunt for political gains in Canada with increases in virtually every province from 2008, that party’s lowest support in recent history. Federal Liberal totals across Canada are as follows: In British Columbia (23.5%), Alberta (24%), Saskatchewan (23%), Manitoba (22%), Ontario (36%), Quebec (24%) New Brunswick (41%), Nova Scotia (34%), PEI (38%), Newfoundland and Labrador (43%).
From 2008 general election totals The Liberal Party of Canada is up in public support in British Columbia (21.8%), Alberta (118%), Saskatchewan (60.8%), Manitoba (15.2%), Ontario (6.5%), Quebec (---), New Brunswick (26%), Nova Scotia (14%), down in PEI (20.4%), and Newfoundland and Labrador (8.1%).
The Liberal Party then Government of Canada under long serving Prime Minister Jean Chrétien achieved (38.5%) in 1997, (36.7%) under new federal Liberal leader Paul Martin in 2006, and (30.2%) in 2006, when the reigns of power transferred from The Liberal Party of Canada to Stephen Harper and The Conservative Party of Canada.
Michael Ignatieff leader of the Liberal Party of Canada has now equaled the totals achieved by former Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin in the 2006 federal general election according to this Official ROBBINS Canada Poll.
Michael Ignatieff and the Liberal Party of Canada could benefit from seat gains right across the country. He needs defend in British Columbia, influence on the Prairies, and fight like hell in Ontario where upwards of 14 seats could be won. There are 2-5 seats that the Liberal Party could win in Quebec up to 5 in the Maritimes (New Brunswick and Nova Scotia) and he needs to hold on to what he has in the remainder of the Atlantic Provinces (Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador).
Jack Layton is also enjoying an impressive showing with (31.5%) in British Columbia, (12%) for Alberta, (26%) in Saskatchewan, (30%) in Manitoba, (20%) in Ontario and (18.5%) in Quebec, (26%) in New Brunswick, (32%) in Nova Scotia, (21%) in Prince Edward Island and (32%) in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The federal New Democratic Party achieved (15.7%) in the 2004 general election in Canada, (17.5%) in 2006, and (18.2%) in 2008. If the numbers in this Official ROBBINS Canada Poll hold true - with Jack Layton and The New Democratic Party of Canada achieving (20.5%), the federal New Democrats would have gained an incredible (30%) in voter support over 7 years representing approximately 650,000 new voters supporting the New Democrats under Jack Layton.
From 2008 general election totals The New Democratic Party of Canada is UP (20.2%) in British Columbia, (--) Alberta, (--) Saskatchewan, UP in Manitoba (25%), Ontario (9.9%), Quebec (51.6%), New Brunswick (18.7%), Nova Scotia (10.7%), Prince Edward Island (114%), and DOWN (5.5%) in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Jack Layton’s New Democrats are realizing a surge in popular support across much of Canada. Their BC numbers are habitually underestimated by eastern public opinion pollsters, this Official ROBBINS Canada poll suggests they may win up to 2 seats in BC, possibly 1 or 2 on the Prairies, perhaps 1 or 2 in Ontario, possibly 1 in Quebec, and perhaps 2 in Atlantic Canada. A fifty seat outcome would be a major gain for Jack Layton particularly if the combined Liberal – New Democratic seat totals are higher than the Conservatives are, AND Michael Ignatieff’s electoral success does not meet expectations. It is not inconceivable that Jack Layton could become Prime Minister of Canada under such a scenario.
Elizabeth May and The Green Party of Canada received (7%) in British Columbia and (7.5%) in Alberta it highest totals- with Ontario down to (5%) and Quebec at (5%). Support for The Green Party in Saskatchewan and Manitoba is (2.5%) and (5%) respectively and lower in the Maritimes and Atlantic Provinces.
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois Party are down by (10%) in popular support in that party-. The Bloc Quebecois - representing Canada’s largest (land mass) province and second most highly populated province Quebec (formerly Lower Canada) wants to achieve separation from Canada. They achieved an astounding national total of (12.4%) in 2004, (10.5%) in 2006, (10%) in 2008 and if the numbers in this Official ROBBINS Canada poll hold (8.5%) will represent a drop in (31.5%) in support for the separatist Bloc Quebecois over 7 year period that the federal New Democrats gained (30%) nationally.
The federal Liberals and New Democrats have made significant gains with voters over this election at the expense of the Conservatives, Green, and Bloc Quebecois.
The actual rationale for this 41st Canadian federal election appears to relate almost exclusively to the fact that Quebec will seek a different relationship with Canada (separation-sovereignty association) as soon as the Parti Quebecois and leader Pauline Marois wins the next Quebec Provincial election coming March 2012. Between the end of this election and now - Canada’s Parliament however it is configured will make every effort politically to ensure this does not happen. If Prime Minister Stephen Harper is unable to win a majority - through Ontario - then emerging problems with Quebec will be blamed on him. The back up plan for another configuration of Parliament under a new Prime Minister will attempt to deflect from the more negative conversation involving Stephen Harper’s failures to another - attempt at dampening down the separatist monologue that will surely be coming from Quebec.
For all intents and purposes this federal election is Upper Canada (Ontario) v. Lower Canada (Quebec) to see where Canada goes from here.
New Brunswick’s Progressive Conservative government has filed a brief with the Supreme Court of Canada regarding the methods used by the Government of Canada to leverage them into Confederation - and current disagreement with a national securities regulator - as Ottawa and Toronto seeks to centralize power and money into those two cities.
Stephen Harper’s directive was to win a majority - simple. The only province that can make this possible for him is Canada’s most populous one - The Province of Ontario where Canada’s capital Ottawa is located, and where the financial and media is located in Toronto. The fall back position if Mr. Harper is not successful-- is the development of a Liberal - New Democrat combination/weakened Bloc Quebecois - which is hoped will mollify a ‘Distinctly’ left leaning Quebec society when Quebec Referendum game time comes.
Methodology: A targeted survey of 4,841 Canadians who voted in Canada’s Fortieth General Election on October 14, 2008, a total of 13,929,093 voters, (58.8%) of registered voters. This survey was conducted between April 12-18, 2011. *(Leader and Party outcomes have been adjusted for gender and voter population for greater statistical precision).
The Margin of Error (M.O.E.) in this Official ROBBINS Canada poll is (1.41%), 19 times out of 20 @ 95 percent confidence. M.O.E. by Province is as follows: Ontario (2.23%), Quebec (4.76%), British Columbia (2.68%), Alberta (6.7%), Saskatchewan (9.56%), Manitoba (10.89%), New Brunswick (6.46%), Nova Scotia (5.55%), P.E.I. (13.33%), Newfoundland and Labrador (9.56%). A significant percentage of data was collected outside Canada.

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