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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics March 3, 2011
  Mar 03, 2011

This is targeted survey of 1,315 voters from the 2009 general provincial election in British Columbia February 27-March 2, 2011. The margin of error is 2.7%, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence. This Glen P. Robbins-ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) survey was commissioned by Jim Van Rassel and New Trend Optical of Port Coquitlam (604) 328-5398 and (604) 942-9300.
Mr. Van Rassel is a former member of the federal Conservative Party of Canada and BC Conservative Party. He is currently a member of the B.C. New Democratic Party and a supporter of Mike Farnworth’s leadership candidacy of the B.C. New Democratic Party also endorsing Mike Farnworth’s nomination papers. Mr. Van Rassel played no part in the content of the questions or the collection of data for this poll derived from inside and outside the Province of British Columbia, while the pollster was unawares of the fact that Mr. Van Rassel was a member of the BC New Democratic Party and supporter of Mike Farnworth for leader at the time the poll was Commissioned and was not made aware of this fact until the data collection had been completed.

Question #1
Which one of the following response choices BEST reflects your personal opinion of Christy Clark being elected new leader of the BC Liberal Party and as a result Premier of British Columbia?
It’s positive    34.15 %
It’s negative    41.90 %
It’s no different    14.98 %
Somewhat Undecided    3.85 %
Completely Undecided    5.01 %
Question #2
In your opinion is it time for a change of government in British Columbia?
Yes    62.43 %
No    22.58 %
Somewhat Undecided    6.01 %
Completely Undecided    8.97 %
Question #3
Which of the following leaders and candidate do you currently support now?
Christy Clark and BC Liberals-decided    30.43 %
Mike Farnworth and BC New Democrats-decided    40.79 %
Jane Sterk and BC Green Party-decided    8.89 %
New Leader and BC Conservative Party-decided    8.52 %
Chris Delaney and BC First Party-decided    4.77 %
Independent candidate-decided    3.76 %
Other BC party-decided    2.84 %
(Somewhat Undecided)    6.01 %
(Completely Undecided)    11.02 %
Question #4
Now that Christy Clark has replaced Gordon Campbell as leader of the BC Liberal Party is it your opinion that Gordon Campbell should:
Immediately resign his seat in Vancouver Point Grey and call a by-election    84.49 %
Stay on as an MLA    10.42 %
Somewhat Undecided    2.96 %
Undecided    2.30 %
Question #5
Please provide your impression as either positive or negative to the following political issues/policies/events which are statements of fact? Outcome of 7 year BC Rail B.C. Supreme Court case and payment of $6 million dollar legal bill for two government aides convicted guilty
Positive    4.26 %
Negative    79.77 %
Somewhat Undecided    8.97 %
Completely Undecided    7.00 %
Question #6
Please provide your impression as either positive or negative to the following political issues/policies/events which are statements of fact? Government of BC policy to bring in Harmonized Sales Tax without consultation with the BC Public.
Positive    14.68 %
Negative    65.86 %
Somewhat Undecided    9.51 %
Undecided    9.96 %
Commentary
Most popular response choice selections:
1. Gordon Campbell “should immediately resign his seat in Vancouver Point Grey and call a by-election” (84.49%)
2. Negative impression of “B.C. Rail-B.C. Supreme court case and payment of $6 billion dollar legal bill of two government aides convicted guilty” (79.77%)
3. Negative impression of “Government of B.C. policy to bring in Harmonized Sales Tax without consultation with the B.C. public” (65.86%)
4. “In your opinion is it time for a change of government in British Columbia” (62.43%)
5. Negative impression “of Christy Clark being elected new leader of the BC Liberal Party and as a result Premier of British Columbia” (41.90%)
First place Mike Farnworth and BC New Democrats attract the following support from 2009 BC voters in the general provincial election, based on regions: Vancouver Island (44%), Vancouver Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley (43%), and North, Interior and Eastern province (36%).
Second place Christy Clark and BC Liberals score (36%) in North, Interior and Eastern province, (35%) in Vancouver Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley and (23%) on Vancouver Island.
(73.94%) of the total number of respondents who are “positive” about Christy Clark as leader of the BC Liberal Party and Premier (designate) indicate that they support her BC Liberal government in question 3. Some respondents of both sexes who are “negative” or see Christy as “no different” (question 1) also support her BC Liberal government. A noticeable majority (63%) of respondents who are “negative” about Christy Clark are male. A smaller cluster of these respondents support Christy Clark and BC Liberals. Some respondents who are of the opinion that Christy Clark is “No different” also support the BC Liberal Party, while others do not.
Many respondents who are “positive” about Christy Clark as leader and Premier support Mike Farnworth and BC New Democrats in question 3. The majority of Mike Farnworth and New Democrat Party’s support derives from respondents who see Christy as “negative”, “it’s no different”, or “somewhat undecided”/”undecided”.
(13%) of support for Christy Clark’s BC Liberals want Gordon Campbell to stay on as MLA in Point Grey.
Conclusions:
Christy Clark has some serious problems facing her new leadership of the BC Liberal Party and as a result Premier (designate) of BC. There is a cluster of mostly male respondent/voters who see her as “negative” but support the BC Liberal Party. There is a small cluster of mostly male respondent/voters who want to see Gordon Campbell stay on as MLA AND who see her election as “negative” and support the party while there is also evidence of others who want Campbell to stay on who are “Undecided”.
The overwhelming majority of all respondent/voters want Gordon Campbell to resign his seat in Vancouver Point Grey and call a by-election. The overwhelming majority of 2009 BC voters have a negative impression of the BC Rail-BC Supreme Court disaster AND the overwhelming majority of 2009 voters have a negative impression of the HST and the fact the British Columbians were not consulted.
Many respondents/voters who see Christy Clark’s election as “positive” don’t support her and the BC Liberal Party. Instead these respondent/voters support other parties including predominantly Mike Farnworth and the New Democrats. These respondents see Christy Clark is simply a “positive” change from Gordon Campbell, while others who support Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberal Party are “negative” about her leadership. Thus Christy Clark must win over the mostly male respondent/voters who are BC Liberal or alternatively centre right voters and in many cases like Gordon Campbell, while winning over the mostly female respondent/voters who welcome change from the Campbell regime but are still supporting the BC New Democrats.
The evidence in this poll does not suggest that the centre right coalition held by the BC Liberals is breaking under Christy Clark’s election to leader, instead it is shrinking-getting smaller. Only (40%) of decided voters from 2009 support either Christy Clark and BC Liberals or New Leader and BC Conservative Party (centre right), while (50%) support Mike Farnworth and New Democrats plus Jane Sterk and BC Green Party with (62%) of BC voters demanding change. This suggests that for Christy Clark to produce the change she promised while running for leader she must move left and risk alienating Gordon Campbell loyalists in the BC Liberal Party, or alternatively giving energy to the fledgling BC Conservative Party.
Christy Clark must accomplish the change she promised while enduring massive public anger relating to BC Rail and the HST in a climate where the electorate has generally lost confidence in government.

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