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2 Major BC polls.
  Nov 30, 2010

Poll 1 - 704 random telephone responses-November 25-29, 2010. Margin of error 3.69% plus or minus - 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence. Poll 2 - 845 targeted telephone respondents (Voters in the previous provincial election May, 2009) November 25-29, 2010. Margin of error 3.37% plus or minus - 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence.
*Response choice George Abbott included his riding described to respondents as Okanagan Shuswap (MLA).

Question #1
Poll 1 - From the choices offered which most attracts your support?
B.C. New Democratic Party    31.5 %
B.C. Liberal Party    24.8 %
A new third party that supports free enterprise and smaller government    19.3 %
A new third party that is left of centre and doesnít have Carole James as its leader    24.6 %
Undecided/Canít Answer    14.5 %
Question #2
Poll 1 - In your opinion is there too much power concentrated in the office of the Premier in British Columbia?
Yes    74 %
No    17 %
Question #3
Poll 1 - Do you strongly support a sustainable environment AND tough limits on political financing AND a ban on all lobbying of elected officials at any level of government?
Yes    56 %
No    23 %
Question #4
Poll 2 - Which leader and party did you vote for in the last BC provincial election in May 2009? (Not exact to actual outcomes)
Gordon Campbell and BC Liberal Party    46 %
Carole James and BC NDP Party    43 %
Jane Sterk and BC Green Party    7.5 %
Question #5
Poll 2 - If a provincial election were held tomorrow for which of the following leaders and party would you caste your ballot?
BC New Democrat and Opposition leader Carole James    45.1 %
(Fmr)BC Health + Educ minister George Abbott/BC Liberals*    34.6 %
Neither of these 2 parties    20.3 %
Undecided    13.9 %
Commentary
Poll 1 - BC NDP (Vancouver Island)-41% BC NDP (North and East)-24% BC NDP (Lower Mainland)-37% BC Liberal (Vancouver Island)-19% BC Liberal (Lower Mainland)-31% BC Liberal (North and East)-28%
Poll 2 - Carole James NDP:(North and Interior) 23%, (Lower Mainland) 41%, (Vancouver Island) 44% George Abbott BC Liberal: (North and Interior) 42%, (Lower Mainland) 29%, (Vancouver Island) 23%
Commentary by Peter Kelly
The leadership problems of the BC Liberals are well on their way to being resolved as members will be picking a new leader in the new year. The rebound for the BC Liberals is well underway. The leadership problems for the NDP have just begun. While both polls show that the NDP hold a lead, its not the commanding lead they had when Gordon Campbell was still firmly in place. It just reaffirms that the NDP never had overwhelming enthusiastic support of voters, but were willing to support them in order to oust Gordon Campbell.
With George Abbott as an early favorite as the new leader of the BC Liberals, this changes the scene. The BC Liberals regain some 'mojo'. They even take the lead in the swing areas of northern and interior BC. Up until Campbell announced he was going to resign his leadership, it wasn't a doubt if the NDP would win - but how much they would win by. Its no longer a sure bet.
In the second poll, the NDP would be happy to get 45% of the vote to the BC Liberals 35% as it would produce a very strong majority government for Carole James; but the very fact that the BC Liberals have recovered any ground at all should be sending alarm bells to NDP planners and strategists.
If the NDP manages again to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, its not just a leadership change they need to worry about - the party itself will be destroyed from within and a new one will likely be ready to challenge for the right to be the standard bearer of the progressive-left voting block in BC.

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