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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics June 30, 2010
  Jun 30, 2010

A sample of 2,176 eligible voters across Canada-with respondents targeted at a rate of 3.7 x respondents (Ontario), 2.3 (Quebec), 1.2 (British Columbian), 1.0 (Alberta) 0.5 (Manitoba), 0.5 (Saskatchewan), 1.1 (Atlantic Provinces) over the first 1,000 responses -- with those responses derived from a previous BC poll and introduced with one notable exception -- in the case of Jack Layton and the new Liberal Democratic Party -- in this poll he is identified with the New Democratic Party -- in the provincial poll providing the first 1,000 respondents to this poll -- he is not-thereafter BC respondents are in accordance with the relevant population target objectives using the question provided in this poll. The data used in this poll covers tracking/interview between June 11, 2010 and June 28, 2010.
The writer believes that if these questions were asked to a similar size sample 20 times or 43,520 respondents -- in 19 of those samples or 95% of the time -- the response outcomes would match these numbers relative to the margin of error distinction.

Question #1
Of the following Canadian political parties which do you most support right now?
Conservative Party of Canada    32.50 %
Liberal Party of Canada    30.55 %
New Democratic Party of Canada    18.82 %
Bloc Quebecois Party    8.61 %
Green Party of Canada    7.69 %
Other Registered Party    2.11 %
Undecided    09 %
Question #2
Would you seriously consider supporting a new Liberal Democratic Party in Canada led by New Democratic leader Jack Layton?
Yes    28 %
No    72 %
Undecided    12 %
Question #3
Over the past two decades Canada has had two high profile finance ministers - Paul Martin for the Liberal Party of Canada, and Jim Flaherty of the Conservative Party of Canada. In your opinion, of these two finance ministers, which one has done the best job of managing Canada’s economy?
Paul Martin/Liberal Party of Canada    38 %
Jim Flaherty/Conservative Party of Canada    35 %
Undecided/All Other    26 %
Commentary
(68%) of decided respondents from question #1 choose another party other than the government Conservatives-while (72%) of decided respondents reject Jack Layton and “a new Liberal Democratic Party in Canada” from question 2. Jack Layton just isn’t quite strong enough to challenge Stephen Harper -- (the thought should be crossing a few minds after this though).
Conservatives score as follows (decided): Ontario (34.5%); Quebec (15%); British Columbia (33%); Alberta (57%); Manitoba (42%); Saskatchewan (49%); Atlantic Provinces (34%).
The Conservative Party of Canada continues to attract weak support in Quebec - is weaker in British Columbia, but scratching back from low 30’s percent in Ontario--Conservatives dominate the western prairie provinces--with Manitoba showing a propensity for marginal to and fro shifting from one party to another and Undecided. Quebec has an HST but collects it own money -- because in truth Quebec really is half-sovereign now. Language - law - its own Federal party--and a provincial party that’s moving to government like a locomotive.
Liberals score as follows (decided): Ontario (37.5%); Quebec (23%); British Columbia (24%); Alberta (20.5%); Manitoba (28%); Saskatchewan (27%); Atlantic Provinces (43%).
The Liberal Party of Canada dominates the Atlantic Provinces -- holds a lead in seat rich Ontario -- leads ‘other than the Bloc’ by a margin -- and is scratching and clawing back to respectability in the western provinces.
Jack Layton’s Liberal Democratic Party scores as follows (decided): Ontario (31.5%); Quebec (26%); British Columbia (45%), Alberta (24%); Manitoba (42.5%); Saskatchewan (40.5%); Atlantic Provinces (31%). I really like these numbers.
Jack Layton’s Liberal Democratic Party attracts more respondent support than the Conservative Party of Canada in Quebec and British Columbia -- is equal in support in Manitoba and close in Ontario, Saskatchewan and the Atlantic Provinces---
---beats the Liberal Party of Canada in Quebec, British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan---I know what you’re thinking right now -- God can this guy poll -- Am I right? -- c’mon Canada -- don’t be stuck up -- it promotes unattractive product (media - political industry).
Despite not being finance minister of the Liberal Party of Canada for nearly a decade, former prime minister Paul Martin scores big against current finance minister of Canada--Jim Flaherty// -- may have as much to do with name recognition/Flaherty is certainly a known political commodity though --. No matter, we wanted to see where the chips would fall--look at both of the finance ministers numbers in Ontario--stellar--.
At ZEUS we believe the high confidence numbers for both Canadian finance ministers in this poll -- suggest Canadians say -- ‘okay -- you don’t always tell the truth --the billion plus was nuts -- let’s talk about it and what went down in Toronto -- but Canada is looking good/we are a very pretty country right now//Canada is like Becky in Sunnybrook-(or Sunnyvale) -- (and) with Paul Martin’s high numbers they are saying -- ‘okay we get it ---we rule on finance’ --- but (to the Conservatives) ‘your only other domestic policy strength is crime- (and now it’s look confused -- billions for prisons no money where it belongs, a billion and one half for security/with no rationale for the accounting -- but no real evidence -- no sense that they understand or believe that getting in front of problems with early dollars --alleged left wing principle-- with people -- which is the premise for government’s existence---is the only solution -- this blind spot opens the door for Paul Martin to address the issues other than finance---that Canadians want to talk about -- Afghanistan, high crime costs, health, education, and the environment-the latter cannot continue to be so easily evaded --
Paul Martin: Ontario (45%); Quebec (30%); British Columbia (32%); Alberta (29%); Manitoba (45%), Saskatchewan (44%); Atlantic Provinces (46%)--
Jim Flaherty: Ontario (38%); Quebec (24%); British Columbia (36%); Alberta (60%); Manitoba (36%); Saskatchewan (44%); Atlantic Provinces (37%);
Undecided/All Other: Ontario (15%); Quebec (46%); British Columbia (32%); Alberta (11%); Manitoba (19%); Saskatchewan (12%); Atlantic Provinces (15%).
Assessment of question 1 by random comparison:
In question 1 there are 7 response choices including Undecided, 6 if Undecided is excluded. The Conservative Party of Canada would randomly score (14.28%) based on 7 response choices - in fact they score (32.50%) or 2.27 times random based on 7 response choices.
The Liberal Party of Canada scores (30.55%) or 2.14 times random based on 7 response choices. The New Democratic Party of Canada scores (18.82%) or 1.32 times random.
Ranking of response choices by ZEUS polling points:
Number one respondent - The Conservative Party of Canada - topping the charts with 2,867,200 ZEUS (straw) polling points.
Number two respondent - Liberal Party of Canada - something to cheer about --2,545,263 ZEUS polling points.
Number three -- oh my oh me -- Paul Martin is one move --- I seen him hunting around the news rooms -- looking real good -- talking things Canadians will likely listen to ---former Prime Minister of Canada -- leader of the Liberal Party of Canada--seems more down to earth ----- I smell a comeback with these numbers 2,111,763 ZEUS polling points.
Number four//open the door -- for--Conservative Party of Canada finance minister-- Jim Flaherty with 1,783,323 ZEUS polling points.
Number five/man alive/New Democratic Party of Canada - things still moving along--can you bust a move? --- let me know so that I can see it--- 963,487 ZUES polling points.
Lucky number six --- he’s up to his old tricks -- Gentleman Jack ‘Light the Lantern’ Layton tucks in with his new Liberal Democratic party -- and a very respectable 921,563 ZEUS polling points--when you draw Liberals and Undecided something is moving you forward.
The Conservative Party of Canada continues just ahead of a packed crowd of political parties, (potential political party’s) and the ministers of finance we apparently still love-
A reputation for good fiscal management is becoming Canada’s call in trade -- Conservative finance minister Jim Flaherty wasn’t in the job as long as Paul Martin--these are good numbers in any poll. Prime Minister Stephen Harper continues to impress -- the World -- how is he really doing?---a nice hold on one third of eligible voters--Stephen Harper and The Conservative Party of Canada can fight off the ropes---./Stephen Harper can ride like a stallion and haul like a Clydesdale--there are times I feel he goes to the wrong barn but he’s obviously a winner.
The Liberal Party of Canada brand is still fine -- this isn’t to suggest that Michael Ignatieff isn’t a factor -- we just asked brand -- however I would wager that these improved numbers for the Liberal party are legitimately Ignatieff’s as well. The difficulty in these numbers* is that Jack Layton and Liberal Democratic party seduces far too many Liberals from question #1. I think the Liberal Democratic brand has intrinsic value--for the best eligible sportsman.
This Paul Martin is just a bit cheeky isn’t he? He’s right there with the Liberal Party of Canada numbers -- but AHEAD if you subtract the traitors over to Jack ‘the Jewel” Layton in question There is some pining over Paul Martin/we don’t believe its actually against Michael Ignatieff / sometimes the right politician hit’s a hotspot and they are required to do their thing/ they are political actors and people take their cues. --
These numbers remind me of a ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) poll a couple of months prior to the 2006 Canadian general federal election. Paul Martin was Prime Minister and Stephen Harper was the Opposition leader. National radio -- anyhow some radio station in Saskatchewan--picked up the poll and I did an interview -- predicting the eventual Harper minority government I ---victory. The host and his guests kind of giggled at me--commenting frequently that I was a pollster from Vancouver, BC (like I was stoned--with my prediction). I throw for a bulls eye -- that’s my goal -- and I hit the mark - (stoned or not).
My company suggested that Harper started the election at 32% with Paul Martin falling-- while the mainstream had Harper between 24-28% and Martin cresting upward. Accurately predicting this election was important to me falling on the deadly accurate prediction of George W. Bush’s 2004 presidential victory. After so many satisfying successes -- the Pinnacle -- going against the grain and accurately predicting U.S. President Barack Obama --- President ---the metaphoric predictions of future events---is the curse and that my friend is Smithsonian Art.
If Obama wins a second term I’m going to make the Rockefellers look poor).
I like Jim Flaherty -- if I could have a friend -- I could hang around with -- and have a burger and a beer -- I’d pick Jim Flaherty. He went through a strongly suggested recession -- swapped some taxpayer money--pretended the $75 billion dollar transfer of bad mortgages held by Canada’s big banks -- onto taxpayers wasn’t help -- and apparently enough people believed the mantra -- or no-one noticed. A little chilly. But other countries like and appreciate Canada -- and part of the reason---Harper can rely on his International strength (I would bet if you asked folks from G8 countries which International leader is most respect--Harper might challenge Obama--), this allows his second Jim Flaherty to fill in on the domestic front as the countries political accountant --

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