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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics May 26, 2010
  May 26, 2010

Question #1
If a federal election were held tomorrow for which leader and party would you vote?
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    31.77 %
Michael Ignatieff and Liberal Party of Canada    26.54 %
Jack Layton and New Democratic Party of Canada    18.84 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    12.64 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois Party of Canada    7.74 %
Other Party    2.64 %
Undecided (Rounded)    9.00 %
Question #2
In your opinion how important is Canada's environment including coastal waters, old growth forest, and wetlands?
Very Important/Important    82 %
Unimportant/Very Unimportant    18 %
Undecided    11 %
Question #3
The oil leaking off the coast of the Gulf of Mexico is by all measures a major environmental disaster. In your opinion should Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper look to placing a moratorium on any new offshore oil and gas drilling in Canadian coastal territory?
Yes    78 %
No    22 %
Undecided    12 %
Commentary
Support is waning for Canada's Conservative Party and leader Stephen Harper. Down 5% since first elected to government in 2006 -- and 6% since the last federal general election in Canada in October 2008 -- voters in this ZEUS ROBBINS poll in the majority are not overly enamored with government's performance right now - heading toward the billion dollar G8 G20 meetings scheduled for Ontario - in the coming weeks.
Things may not be as bad for the Conservatives as it first appears by their obvious dwindling support among Canadians. Michael Ignatieff and his Liberal Party of Canada -- are no better maintaining national totals consistent with their poor performance in the 2008 federal election when Stephane Dion was leader of the party
It has been clear for a long time that New Democrats and Greens are severely prejudiced by the current electoral format (first past the post). Proportional Representation models are too complex for voters to consider -- particularly when they are kept busy trying to determine how much the fun and frolic their elected MP's are having and at what cost?
Electoral reform is obviously necessary -- Stephen Harper and his Conservatives can be very mediocre and remain unthreatened by Opposition parties -- through simple divide and conquer. Conservatives sit on a 30% base with underlying 8.2% 'support of their support (based on indication of support followed by question on a scale of support "5" the lowest and "10" the highest -- using whole and half numbers only what number reflects your level of support for XXXX?)AND with four Opposition parties fighting over the other 65% -- do the math. The Prime Minister and his caucus could likely show up nude to Parliament and still remain unthreatened.
Conservatives have lost national total through a decline of 10% (33%) in Ontario, (33%) in B.C. - which produced a (46%)vote outcome in election 2008 -- a sharp decline in Alberta (with 17% Green totals -- in Alberta)--small percentage declines in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (from 2008) -- (17%) in Quebec, but increased total in Nova Scotia (30%), and Newfoundland and Labrador (29%)-- the Conservatives remain in the driver's seat in Canadian politics -- it's just an average car though.
The Liberal Party of Canada has deplorable support in western Canada -- but holds well in Ontario and Toronto (38%), with status quo in Quebec and the Maritimes (save for where the Conservatives have gotten a bump).
The New Democrats are holding their own and increasing in some areas of the country -- including British Columbia up 20% + to (32%).
The Green Party is one which most every mainstream pollster -- overrates in terms of public support. ZEUS ROBBINS (ROBBINS Sce Research 1998) have been contradicting these polls for years properly scoring Canada's environmental party. Not now though -- voters are watching the Gulf of Mexico spewing the dark oozing reason why the countries fight one another -- and the reason the world could conceivably perish -- oil. For years we have been told that a disaster of this type would not happen -- and generally speaking -- the perception was drill baby drill -- No more.
BP has ruined the trust factor for oil companies -- and Canadians don't need to have the leak in their backyard to understand they don't want this to happen in Canada.
The perception among most Canadians opposed to the Conservative government of Canada -- is that they are in the 'charge' of big finance, big business, and big oil companies (53%).
The Harper government has been pretty thin on environmental policy -- and is perceived as being too loose with business and others in terms of regulatory policy.
Quebecors do not have a good impression of the Harper government on the environment -- as well over (80%) of decided 'voters' from that province -- call for a moratorium on new offshore drilling -- (what -- me worry I got 30%)
The Gulf of Mexico Earth disaster will probably eclipse the G8/G20 meetings -- as Canadian voters and others continue to express a declining interest in all democratic leaders and countries, particularly after the nice little robbery of the people's loot for big business -- this is new crowd -- walking around in nice clothes looking leaderly--has lost its lustre. People want action on the environment ("screw global warming") - and aren't interested in all the fancy talk associated with most recent attempts to fleece the people to pay for bureaucratic largesse--, the people want their resources including their land, water and air regulated -- everyone knows -- everyone has seen BP start to finger point-- possession is 9/10's of the law in unregulated and uncivil environments -- that's what the world reflects to the people now.
And Government of Canada -- forgetting to talk about the 75 billion in mortage buy-outs from banks -- what are we calling this precisely? An MP expense?
Credibility is low -- the Government of Canada has to give the people something to aspire to -- accountability -- transparency -- words -- like anarchy -- protest -- civil unrest -- change your ways --- placing a moratorium on any new offshore activity would be a good place to start gaining the people's confidence back.
1,425 'voters' interviewed between May 15-24, 2010 (per province to be added later). Including underlying support rating -- ZEUS methodology (science based on sample size) rates the Margin of Error at 1.75% higher or lower 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence. ZEUS ROBBINS is the most accurate pollster in the World.
First published 5:00 PM, May 26, 2010

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