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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics March 30, 2010
  Mar 30, 2010

A ZEUS poll of 1,821 "eligible voters" in the Province of British Columbia -- March 13-16, 2010. MOE (1.5%) Legal and Scientific (Approx.). Jim Van Rassel provided an honourarium on this 'leg' of the B.C. ZEUS/ROBBINS Sce Research (est. 1998) 'Trilogy'

Question #1
If an election were held today, for which federal political leader and party would you caste your ballot?* (decided eligible voters)
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party    35.0 %
Michael Ignatieff and Liberal Party    22.5 %
Jack Layton and New Democratic Party    28.0 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party    09 %
Scott Reid and Libertarian Party    02 %
Undecided    04 %
I likely would not vote    24 %
Question #2
Do you have a high level of trust and confidence in your provincial and federal government’s ability to make wise choices with your money?
Yes    34.0 %
No    59.0 %
Commentary
A majority of “eligible voters” including the vast majority of those who indicated “I likely would not vote” in question #1 do NOT “have a high level of trust and confidence in your provincial and federal government’s ability to make wise choices with your money”---if you take away those respondents who “would not vote” (53.5%) of total respondents still selected “No” to question #2. This might suggest the theory (or reinforce other similar theories in the public domain) that the reason fewer and fewer people aren’t voting is because of a lack of confidence in both levels of government with ‘money’ or it provides (as money usually does) a pretty reasonable excuse for opting out of voting.
Some respondents who supported a particular party in government (BC Liberals—Federal Conservatives) answered “No” to this question – anecdotally they “don’t like Campbell” – ‘but like the party’—“don’t like the Conservatives” but “Like Harper”—while other anecdotes blamed the cost of government—on money problems—more particularly the bureaucracy (as opposed to the ‘high cost of health’) – a type of separation of blame. (In a parliamentary democracy like Canada – government includes the Prime Minister and his Cabinet and caucus—(Conservatives) + Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition (Liberals) and other Opposition parties (New Democrats, Bloc Quebecois {a Quebec nationalist party who seeks a different relationship with Canada than the other provinces} + the bureaucracy -----with Canada’s Lieutenant Governor Michaelle Jean as the Queen’s representative in the country).
In any event – easily more than one half of the respondents who said they would vote for a particular leader and party in this trilogy of ZEUS polls in the province of British Columbia---do not have “a high level of trust and confidence” in the “provincial and federal government’s ability to make wise choices with (sic) their money.”
Based on the outcomes of questions #1 and 2, one thing is clear—Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party’s public support is trending downward in the province of British Columbia. This drop in public support for the Conservative Party has occurred between elections before. Will the run-up to former premier Bill Vander Zalm’s anti-HST---this spring--impact negatively on the federal Conservative government – who -along with the BC Liberals are responsible for it?
In this ZEUS poll Stephen Harper and Conservative Party drop (21%) from the B.C. results of the last general federal election in October, 2008.
Underlying polling evidence suggests that some Conservative supporters will consider a Libertarian label and are moving from voting to not voting.
Michael Ignatieff and Liberal Party of Canada are on a ‘bit of an upswing’ in British Columbia. From (19.5%) in the last general election to (22.5%) --an increase in public support in the province of B.C. of (15.5%).
These are modest gains for the Liberal Party – but Michael Ignatieff has a Russian background and understands that sometimes you move one step forward and one backward---but eventually----perseverance—is the best strategy. (For those who perceived “W” Bush (U.S.) to be a nasty son of gun when their angry—watch Putin (Russia).
The recent ‘silly’ vote on ‘Women and Bush’ in the House of Commons—may be of no real ‘democratic’ value—and certainly does not achieve the clarity Mr. Ignatieff /thought he sought/—however it did show him as the leader of a vote that ‘just lost’— or ‘nearly won’ – and re-introduced Michael Ignatieff to those Canadians paying attention—. B.C. has the third highest population of any province in Canada.
Resistance to further Liberal increases in public support—we believe-- sits at (25-26%), so although this is not the amount of support which presently exists, it nonetheless tells us that Liberals can move forward from the gains they have made---with historical highs for federal Liberal Party popularity peaking at around (28%) in the province of British Columbia.
Quite clearly, Jack Layton and New Democrat support on the rise by (12%) from 2008 election totals—will impact on the aforementioned ‘resistance’—and it is also likely that J.L. NDP support will hold or increase as the provincial New Democrats totals very likely increase over the B.C. Liberal H.S.T. debacle (unless the media shuts down again for a month or two – to save energy).
Elizabeth May and the federal Green Party of Canada possess the same public support from British Columbians as they achieved in the 2008 federal general election.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper needs to concern himself with British Columbia and his party’s long-time association with the BC Liberal Party. --- the premier and party have attained a little bounce for now – (post Olympics—shiny developments for Vancouver) but this is primarily in areas of the province like Richmond or in parts of the city of Vancouver – where they do well anyhow. The HST and protest(s) against it – will unquestionably bring pressure downward on Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals numbers (36%)—particularly as news reports continue to recount how voters were lied to about the H.S.T. by Gordon Campbell during the last provincial election in October, 2008. Stephen Harper’s support though lower hovers between a further slight dip or slight increase---.
Both Prime Minister Harper and Premier Campbell and their respective party’s achieve similar support totals from British Columbians ----although they gain their greatest support from different parts of the province. Stephen Harper remains most popular in rural/suburban British Columbia. Gordon Campbell remains most popular in Richmond, some parts of Vancouver city, West Vancouver, and the Fraser Valley—where the Prime Minister is also popular.
Both Prime Minister Harper and Gordon Campbell are BOTH less popular in coastal B.C. towns and Vancouver Island.
Prime Minister Harper (Conservative) and Gordon Campbell (BC Liberal) plus party’s support totals equals (71.5%) -- Federal Opposition leader Michael Ignatieff (Liberal) and Gordon Campbell (BC Liberal) plus party’s support equals (59%). Federal leader Jack Layton (NDP) and B.C. Opposition leader Carole James plus party’s support totals equals (71.5%). Elizabeth May (Green) and Jane Sterk (Green) achieve (17.5%) totals in this ZEUS poll
Harper (Conservative) and Campbell (BC Liberal) are stitched together on the HST— and their popular support totals are moving in a downward direction/though perhaps NOT (edit) to the same degree – while both federal and provincial New Democrats are moving forward with the anti-HST ‘gift’ blowing in their sail—and through their hair---(see also mermaids).
Michael Ignatieff obviously needs to move those Liberals in the BC Liberal party who support him-- away from that party—in order to improve his opportunity to draft off and have influence over the next rendition of that party. “Liberal” is the predominant label impression in B.C. Liberal – the “B.C.” portion of the label simply describes the point of invitation to various conservatives and others who still support the party. However the BC Conservatives have a little mojo of their own going---but not near enough to bring Campbell buddy Stockwell Day or the Prime Minister---//a glen p robbins/- BC Conservative Party administration would not permit Executive or Boards of Directors to be members of any federal party including the federal Conservative Party.
Simply put – Gordon Campbell is Michael Ignatieff’s political enemy and “Iggy” should have made that calculation by now. Joyce Murray a former BC Liberal who transferred to federal politics and won a Liberal seat in Vancouver in a bye-election and a general election is obviously the contact for the evacuation---what is she going to do with the writing obviously on the wall---if Gordon Campbell’s House --isn’t on fire—it soon will be—and with lower mainland firefighters well entrenched in Campbell’s favour—who will come to save the liberals in the BC Liberals from a certain fiery death?
If Premier Campbell ‘goes down’ (unrelated to Hansen and Flaherty HST matter)—not only should a leadership contest help rejuvenate the B.C. Liberal party—it would likely also likely better increase Mr. Ignatieff’s political position in terms of public support—better a provincial Liberal party trending upward from (33%) --- then downward from (36%) ---Carole James and the BC NDP are holding – but aren’t moving upward in public support—at least not yet—. Accordingly the upward coefficient from the BC Liberal –liberal rebrand would likely push federal Liberal numbers upward.
Afghan critic – Liberal MP Dosanjh (Liberal Vancouver) has been on fire – in the House of Commons over the Afghan detainee matter—his best work for a long while—and Libby Davies (NDP Vancouver) – has Scott Reid (Conservative) and Dosanjh (Liberal) fighting to keep Marc Emery (Marijuana) from being extradited to the United States---while Scott Reid’s colleague – in the Conservative Party of Canada caucus—Justice Minister Robert Nicholson—says the extradition papers haven't (edit) reached his desk---yet---, o – k then--
Michael Ignatieff needs to brand himself better in the lower mainland of the province—might I suggest a meet and greet at the Executive Inn – not sponsored by the Chamber of Commerce --//--(organizations and special interests don’t promote populism well).
Jack Layton is the new popular federal politician—good for him—his caucus is smart and anyone who has had the absolute pleasure of watching a rising powerhouse in federal politics-- Thomas Mulcair (NDP Quebec) understands – that if Jack has to leave/on a high note---he has an excellent caucus—to support any leadership change.
Elizabeth May continues to ensure that Conservatives will remain in minority government.

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