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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics February 3, 2010
  Feb 03, 2010

Question #1
For which leader and party did you vote in the last federal general election in October of 2008?
Stephen Harper and Conservatives    36.4 %
Stephane Dion and Liberals    27.6 %
Jack Layton and New Democrats    17.2 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois    9.5 %
Elizabeth May and Greens    8.4 %
Question #2
If an election were held tomorrow for which leader and party would you caste your ballot?
Stephen Harper and Conservatives    34.2 %
Michael Ignatieff and Liberals    31.8 %
Jack Layton and New Democrats    16.5 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois    8.5 %
Elizabeth May and Green    9.1 %
Undecided    6.4 %
Question #3
In your opinion should Canadian federal economic policy continue to follow the United States and permit credit card companies to impose higher interest rates on poor credit risks?
Yes    23 %
No    71 %
Question #4
In your opinion should Canadian federal environmental policy follow the Obama Administration on matters relating to climate change and reduction of CO2 emissions? (Based on Copenhagen).
Yes    36 %
No    48 %
Commentary
According to question #1 outcomes (from lists), after the federal general election in Autumn 2008-- Conservatives controlled (based on contribution to national totals) (5.2%) of voters from Quebec, (13.3%) from Ontario, (4.7%) from British Columbia, (5.0%) from Alberta, (2.6%) from Saskatchewan, (2.18%) from Manitoba, and (3.4%) from Canada’s Atlantic Provinces.
Voters for the Conservative Party from Ontario are three times the size of the numbers from Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta (based on individual provincial totals provided).
In question #2 Stephen Harper and Conservatives support rises slightly in Quebec, drops some in Ontario, British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. According to this poll, Stephen Harper and his Conservative government are slightly less popular all across Canada, except in Quebec and (maybe) the Atlantic Provinces.
Good luck and health to Newfoundland’s premier Danny Williams, who should become the new progressive Conservative wing ‘leader’ – and at 59 “well-ll—“ (said the way Ronald Reagan Obama might say it). Bob (Dole) remains your Uncle/Joe Biden remains your friend.
The rise in Quebec is controversial in this ZEUS poll as compared to a recent Harris Decima poll placed the Conservatives at (13.5) in Quebec, while we placed them at (24.0%) (Although provincial polling sample size error margins could explain this somewhat).
Ontario and British Columbia results from question #2 suggest the Conservatives are off 5 seats or so in Ontario, 3 in British Columbia, and 2-3 from the Prairie Provinces.
Michael Ignatieff and Liberals are enjoying a modest renaissance with his current national totals comprised as follows: Quebec (4.7%), Ontario (14.0%), BC (3.1%), Alberta (2.5%), Saskatchewan (1.3%), Manitoba (1.4%), and Atlantic Provinces (4.4%).
Michael Ignatieff and Mrs. Ignatieff ought to attend the 2010 Olympics, naturally the Ignatieff family will spend their own money and attend together in the 3rd most expensive seats (I’m thinking in terms of hockey so adjust accordingly please). I would be very interested to know how such an experience for the Leader of the Opposition would turn out (from any number of perspectives—and my absolute penchant for things Plimptonesque).
Let's compare current Michael Ignatieff provincial amounts of national totals with Stephen Harper and Conservative 'election totals' from provincial totals and percentage contribution federally from question #1. This ZEUS poll suggests that currently Liberals enjoy (90%) of Conservative totals (2008). In Ontario, Michael "I" and Liberals attract (5%) more support than Conservatives did in (2008). In British Columbia Liberals attract support from two-thirds of the number that support the Conservatives in this poll. (However, in the BC outcomes from question #1 the baseline support suggested in question #1 is nearly (20%) under actual outcomes from the actual election outcomes-higher than average Undecided in British Columbia and Alberta).
Nationally, Michael Ignatieff and Liberals are (13%) below support the Conservatives achieved in (2008) and (07%) below current Stephen Harper and Conservative totals.
If Harris Decima's numbers in Quebec are accurate than the Conservatives are (32%) and tied with the Liberals as Harris Decima concluded. If current BC support numbers for the Conservatives were increased to actual election totals, and Harris Decimas' numbers Quebec numbers are more accurate than Conservatives would be about (33%) nationally, still slightly ahead of current Liberal numbers. If in addition Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba totals were the same the from the general federal election--as BC--and Harris Decima's more dismal numbers for Conservatives in Quebec are accurate than the BC Conservatives are (34%).
As evidenced by this poll--These ZEUS outcomes for party totals are very close to the recently conducted Harris-Decima survey, however the ZEUS numbers suggest that combined support numbers for Stephen Harper Conservatives and Michael Ignatieff and Liberals are marginally higher than those suggested by Harris-Decima with a slightly different 'calling period' (early February 2010 as compared to late January 2010—and easily in the margin of error of either).
Are the two main political leaders and parties in the country trending upward in public support?
In conclusion, it is our distinct impression from this ZEUS poll (after considering the EKOS poll from a couple of weeks ago and the Harris Decima poll of last week) that Stephen Harper and the Conservatives are off marginally from 2008 federal general election totals, while Michael Ignatieff and Liberals are up to Paul Martin (2006) levels. We've polled Michael Ignatieff and Liberals at these numbers previously. This time however the Stephen Harper and Conservative numbers are down slightly.
In addition, ZEUS believes the federal New Democrats may continue to enjoy B.C. provincial New Democrat support in the mid 40's and corresponding success after the huge Fin Donnelly win in the Coquitlam New Westminster by-election in late 2009. Those by-elections also produced success for the Conservatives in the province of Quebec, and this and the overall reaction of the federal government to the serious problems in Haiti likely support the ZEUS outcomes for Quebec in this poll.
We believe that the Conservatives are off in public support in Ontario and British Columbia, while the Liberals are higher in public support in Ontario, even in Quebec, and slightly higher than former dismal ZEUS polling totals in British Columbia.
More than three out of four Decided respondents do not believe in raising interest rates on those credit card holders with credit problems as is apparently the case in the United States, while four out of ten Decided respondents are of the opinion that Canada's federal environmental policy on climate change and reduction of CO2 emissions should follow the Obama Administration.
Canadians don't trust U.S. economic policy with respect to banks and interest rates, however many more support the Stephen Harper Conservative government following the Obama administration on climate change and reduction of CO2 emissions.
(78%) of respondents from Quebec were against the U.S. policy relating to credit card companies and higher interest rates (highest), while Ontario at (61%) was (lowest).
Quebec supported the Conservative government's environmental linkage to Obama to the promising tune of (38%), an obvious opening for the Conservative on a less likely file.
Canadians hold onto their nickels in an economic downturn and the Conservatives appeal to this, however in order to become a truly national party with a majority of seats they will likely have to seriously re-consider their environmental policy very diligently and in conjunction with a conservative 'touch' in sensitive economic times and ongoing and oft percolating geopolitical issues relating most specifically to Haiti, and to Afghanistan.
A strategic sample of 1,003 respondents between January 27 and February 2, 2010. Margin of error based on sample size (3.13%). Robbins estimate that question #2 is likely within (2.0% MOE—“if an election were held as proposed”. Sponsorship and a letter from Haiti provided by Jim Van Rassel and NuMedia.
The letter from Haiti represents the personal observations (and opinion) of an independent observer whose political (if any) are unknown to ZEUS). To the best of my knowledge this writer may originally be Canadian however ZEUS did not do any further discovery. Assess The Letter from Haiti included hereunder on those terms only -----if you would please.
To All,
I just returned from Haiti with Hebler. We flew in at 3 AM Sunday to the scene of such incredible destruction on one side, and enormous ineptitude and criminal neglect on the other.
Port of Prince is in ruins. The rest of the country is fairly intact.Our team was a rescue team and we carried special equipment that locates people buried under the rubble. There are easily 200,000 dead, the city smells like a charnal house. The bloody UN was there for 5 years doing apparently nothing but wasting US Taxpayers money. The ones I ran into were either incompetent or outright anti American. Most are French or French speakers, worthless every one of them. While 18oo rescuers were ready willing and able to leave the airport and go do our jobs, the UN and USAID ( another organization full of little OBamites and communists that openly speak against America) These two organizations exemplared their parochialism by:
USAID, when in control of all inbound flights, had food and water flights stacked up all the way to Miami, yet allowed Geraldo Rivera, Anderson Cooper and a host of other left wing news puppies to land.
Pulled all the security off the rescue teams so that Bill Clinton and his wife could have the grand tour, whilst we sat unable to get to people trapped in the rubble.
Stacked enough food and water for the relief over at the side of the airfield then put a guard on it while we dehydrated and wouldn't release a drop of it to the rescuers.
No shower facilities to decontaminate after digging or moving corpses all day, except for the FEMA teams who brought their own shower and decon equipment, as well as air conditioned tents.
No latrine facilities, less digging a hole if you set up a _______ everyone was trying to use it.
I watched a 25 year old Obamite with the USAID shrieking hysterically, berate a full bird colonel in the air force, because he countermanded her orders, whilst trying to unscrew the air pattern. " You don't know what your president wants! The military isn't in charge here we are!"
If any of you are thinking of giving money to the Haitian relief, or to the UN don't waste your money. It will only go to further the goals of the French and the Liberal left.
If we are a fair and even society, why is it that only white couples are adopting Haitian orphans. Where is that vocal minority that is always screaming about the injustice of American society.
Bad place, bad situation, but a perfect look at the new world order in action. New Orleans magnified a thousand times. Haiti doesn't need democracy, what Haiti needs is Papa Doc. That's not just my opinion , that is what virtually every Haitian we talked with said. the French run the UN treat us the same as when we were a colony, at least Papa Doc ran the country.
Oh, and as a last slap in the face the last four of us had to take US AIRWAYs home from Phoenix. They slapped me with a 590 dollar baggage charge for the four of us. The girl at the counter was almost in tears because she couldn't give us a discount or she would lose her job. Pass that on to the flying public.

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