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ZEUS poll --Gordon Campbell, Carole James, Dianne Watts, Bill Vander Zalm
You need to be good to be lucky  Aug 12, 2009

a strategic calling of 411 B.C. Voters between August 9-12, 2009. Our M.O.E (combining conventional calculation) plus ROBBINS---is approxiamately (3.5%)--if this same poll were conducted over the same period of time--20 times--this outcome--within this M.O.E. would be achieved 19 times. Jim Van Rassel (604) 328-5398 provided input and "In Kind" research.

Question #1
For which political party did you vote in the last general provincial election?
B.C. Liberal    45.00 %
B.C. NDP    43.00 %
B.C. Green    09.00 %
B.C. Conservative    02.00 %
Question #2
Which party do you currently support?
B.C. Liberals    34.00 %
B.C. Democrats    45.00 %
B.C. Conservatives    11.50 %
B.C. Green    09.50 %
Question #3
Would you be pleased to see former B.C. premier Bill Vander Zalm enter B.C. politics again?
Yes    29.00 %
No    43.50 %
Question #4
Would you be pleased to see Surrey mayor Dianne Watts in B.C. provincial politics one day soon?
Yes    29.00 %
No    23.00 %
Question #5
Of these four political actors whom do you prefer?
B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell    15.00 %
B.C. Opposition Leader Carole James    32.00 %
Former B.C. Premier Bill Vander Zalm    09.50 %
Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts    21.00 %
Commentary
BC Liberals are down by (24.5%) from May 2009 general provincial election totals. B.C. Democrats are up (4.5%) from 2009 totals achieved by B.C. New Democrats.
B.C. Conservatives are up (575%) from lowly 2009 election totals, while B.C. Green is up (06%).
(40%) of Decided ‘B.C. Voters’ “Would you be pleased to see former B.C. premier Bill Vander Zalm enter B.C. politics again”?
(56%) of Decided ‘B.C. Voters’ “Would you be pleased to see Surrey mayor Dianne Watts in B.C. provincial politics one day soon”?
(41%) of Decided ‘B.C. Voters’ prefer B.C. New Democrat leader Carole James from a group of 4 response choices. Carole James is likely known by most 2009 ‘Voters’ to be affiliated with the B.C. N.D.P. while Gordon Campbell is likely known by most voters to be affiliated with the B.C. Liberals. Bill Vander Zalm is likely known by most voters to be a right of centre conservative or populist type personality.
Premier Gordon Campbell, B.C. Liberal leader is preferred by (19%) of Decided ‘B.C. Voters’, while Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts is preferred by (27%), and former B.C. Premier Bill Vander Zalm by (13%) of Decided ‘Voters’.
B.C. Liberals are (36%) above random (25% exclusive of Undecided). After the most recent election the party was (84%) above random. B.C. New Democrats were (72%) above random post election and are now (80%) above random.
Bill Vander Zalm attracts (03%) of Decided B.C. Liberals from question #2 who respond “Yes” to “Would you be pleased to see former B.C. premier Bill Vander Zalm enter B.C. politics again” (question #3)? The last elected Social Credit leader also attracts (74 respondents) from B.C. Democrat supporters from question #2 who also answer “Yes”. Mostly importantly, Vander Zalm attracts (72%) of respondents who select B.C. Conservatives from question #2 to answer “Yes”.
Surrey mayor Dianne Watts attracts an astounding (47%) of Decided B.C. Liberal supporters in question #2 who respond “Yes” to “Would you be pleased to see Surrey mayor Dianne Watts in B.C. provincial politics one day soon” (question #4)? She also attracts (13) B.C. Conservative respondents, and (18%) of B.C. Democrat supporters from question #2. Here’s something else—(24%) of Decided B.C. Green supporters from question #2 answer “Yes” to question #4.
At this point in time, Gordon Campbell and the B.C. Liberals are in obvious deep political trouble over the Harmonized Sales Tax and other matters. The death knell for this version of the party-is the H.S.T. and very suspicious explanations from Mr. Campbell’s finance minister Colin Hansen about who knew what and when---particularly as this relates to the most recent (empty) provincial general election-almost guarantees further unpopularity for the ruling B.C. Liberals.
Carole James, B.C. New Democrat leader is in very good shape currently. Her party and the B.C. Greens have increased their total share of ‘Voter’ support from (50%) to (54.5%) {based on Decided}. If the B.C. New Democrats can absorb even (02%) of the B.C. Greens—with a bona fide B.C. Conservative party in place—the likelihood of a B.C. NDP government in 2013—is all but assured.
Former Premier Bill Vander Zalm is also in an important position. He is very popular with B.C. Conservative supporters in this poll. He was the first politician out of the gate condemning the H.S.T. (ZEUS ROBBINS—first pollster). He has invited British Columbians through the news to visit his website. His close associate Chris Delaney is the Deputy Leader of the B.C. Conservative Party and former leader of the B.C. Unity party which garnered (03%) in the 2001 B.C. provincial general election.
The B.C. Conservatives have their party A.G.M. in September 2009-coming up—and have no leader or effective party organization. If the party fails to come together in September with the political opportunity presently before them—B.C. Liberals would ‘statistically’ be (40%).
In our view it is Bill Vander Zalm’s responsibility to seek to become interim leader of the party based in part on the numbers in this ZEUS poll—AND the fact that Mr. Vander Zalm has taken the obvious initiative of late-- to be political. One would not expect a former premier to be collecting email addresses – to become a king maker of an erstwhile party. If he doesn’t fill this hole—leverage against a severely weakened Gordon Campbell—may dissipate from the right.
Surrey mayor Dianne Watts is creating quite a stir. This Buddhist bombshell is extremely popular across the political spectrum—(and not just in Surrey) but it is very clear B.C. Liberal supporters are beginning to look to her for ‘future’ political salvation. Longtime Campbell supporters will not be able to succeed him—to the extent an outside candidate like Ms. Watts or perhaps a David Emerson are able. Where Bill Vander Zalm’s support from B.C. NDP can more likely be construed as their hope that he can split the centre right vote---Dianne Watts actually has a small minority of B.C. Democrat supporters from question #2—preferring her over Carole James.
The betting here is that Gordon Campbell has saddled the province (see ZEUS ROBBINS, Ipsos Reid, and Angus Reid Strategies) with an unpopular tax—AND doesn’t want a B.C. Liberal leader—other than himself---to be Premier, leaving his own ‘legacy’ in tact—and the B.C. New Democrats to deal with an ‘irreversible’ H.S.T.
Would a Carole James B.C. NDP majority prompt her to return the 1.6 million to Stephen Harper or other federal Prime Minister—and repeal the tax? Unlikely. However, a Bill Vander Zalm B.C. Conservative party, in a minority government situation—would have major influence over this issue (and others).
In a minority government—how would B.C. Liberals and B.C. New Democrats vote on a Bill to abandon the H.S.T.?
Simply Fantastic!
gpr

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