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BC Election 2009 Poll-ROBBINS Final Answer
  May 08, 2009

A targeted strategic calling environment (Sce)-of 832 voters from 2005. This Jim Van Rassel sponsored poll features a-- Margin of error on parties is 2.34% (science-ROBBINS averaging), 19 times out of 20, @ 95% confidence. Poll results obtained between May 4-8, 2009.

Question #1
With a general provincial election called for this coming May 12, 2009---which of the following choices best reflects where your political support lies? (Adjusted)
BC Liberals    46.54 %
BC New Democrats    44.73 %
BC Green    6.31 %
BC Conservatives (adjusted for # of candidates)    1.20 %
Other    1.81 %
Undecided    7.01 %
Question #2
Do you possess at least one cable or satellite television in your home?
Yes    68.5 %
No    19 %
Question #3
In your opinion should BC’s minimum wage, the lowest in the country-be raised to $10.00 per hour?
Yes    77 %
No    21.5 %
Question #4
Which of the two main political leaders—if you had to select one—is a more attractive leader to you?
Carole James    48.52 %
Gordon Campbell    41.92 %
Question #5
Should a political party in the province of British Columbia-which achieves (10%) of the vote receive 10% of the seats in the legislature in Victoria, B.C.?
Yes    33 %
No    44 %
Question #6
The Recognition and Reconciliation Act of the BC Liberal government will establish unelected Aboriginal Governments with Veto Power over many decisions on land use or resource development in the province of British Columbia into the foreseeable future. Do you support this BC Liberal proposal?
Yes    23 %
No    68 %
Question #7
In your opinion should union members working at corporate industrial sites in British Columbia be compelled by law to report all matters relating to serious risk to worker safety and to the environment to a government ministry or regulator?
Yes    58 %
No    23 %
Commentary
Between the two main party labels, the BC Liberals and BC New Democrats—‘decided voters’--- (51%) support BC Liberals, while (49%) support BC New Democrats. Excluding ‘undecided voters’ the BC Liberal brand has (1.81%) lead over the BC New Democrats. Based only on ‘decided voters’ the BC Liberals party has a (1.69%) lead as indicated in this ROBBINS 2009 election poll.
(57%) of BC NDP support is female, while (59%) of BC Liberal supporters are male. (56%) of Undecided are male. Based on this poll—this BC Election 2009 is predicated significantly on gender.
Support for the two main parties throughout the 3 regions of the province based on raw data and expressed as a percentage: (1) the lower mainland—where the bulk of the population is--- (2) the north and east of the province; (3) Vancouver Island and the North Coast, the BC Liberals average as follows (rounded) (1) (48%), (2) (46%), (3) (36%).
BC New Democrats received: (1) (42%), (2) (43.5%), (3) (52%).
BC Greens: (1) (7%), (2) (3.5%), (3) (7%).
The BC Conservative party averages (7%) in the north and east of the province-higher in the Okanagan than in Prince George.
When considering party leaders Carole James and Gordon Campbell, Carole James receives (44%) on the lower mainland, (52%) north and east of the province, and (56%) on Vancouver Island. Premier Gordon Campbell receives (45%) on the lower mainland, (40%) north and east of Hope, and (34%) on Vancouver Island and the North Coast.
Based on more traditional formula of (25%) allocation for leader and (75%) for party-Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals are (45.39%), while Carole James and BC New Democrats are (45.68%).
If leader support influences voter action—higher than suggested, the BC New Democrats benefit-- while more influence on party label benefits BC Liberals.
An overwhelming majority of BC voters from 2005—who are respondents in this ROBBINS BC Election 2009 poll- support the BC New Democrats minimum wage. A clear majority of BC Liberal supporters/voters say “Yes” to a $10 minimum wage, including (24%) of BC Liberal supporters on the lower mainland---and (53%) of BC Liberal voters east and north of Hope—(66%) of BC Liberals supporter/voters on Vancouver Island--- (59%) BC Liberals overall. (94%) of New Democrat supporters-support $10 minimum wage—(91%) of BC Greens—and (1.4%) of overall voters who are also BC Conservative supporters—as well as (67%) of Undecided—all support the $10 minimum wage proposal advanced by Carole James and the BC New Democrats and flatly rejected by Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals.
Our question relating to proportional representation may not necessarily predict the outcome—of the STV question on the ballot--owing in part to the fact that most “voters” who may be thinking about this issue are either “Undecided”= outright—OR are Undecided about STV as the answer to electoral reform. Not surprisingly-- the vast numbers against our proposal—10% of vote equals 10% of seats—are from the BC Liberals and BC New Democrats.
The Reconciliation and Recommendation question is a major surprise as “voters” in the lower mainland were far and away AGAINST – this new BC Liberal government proposal to advance aboriginal land and resource title in B.C. (17%) ------while those in the North and East – (26%) supported it in a minority but to a higher extent. Is it possible that problems such as the Jumbo ski resort (natives blocking the development)—and a sad and sorry economy—in that region of the province—have forced residents there—to capitulate—or is there something else? The city of Penticton supported this (31%). (Our blind in Penticton also asked “In your opinion should BC aboriginals have an equal say with the BC government over land and resource title?" -- (31%) of respondents who also support BC Liberals – answered “Yes” to this question---).
The softwood lumber issue has hurt forestry in the interior of the province (and the provincial economy overall) and legal with the aboriginals will exempt BC from these provisions—but British Columbians—based on the results of this ROBBINS poll are clearly not considering the intricacies of International trade—.
Respondents on the West side of Vancouver and Point Grey answered (23%) “Yes” to the proposal presented in the Reconciliation and Recommendation question.
There is no question that industrial enterprise on the lower mainland—particularly in the north of Burnaby, creates many well paid jobs. This is no excuse for the ‘secret society’ of worker safety ‘cover-ups’ and environmental ‘situations’ that would make any reasonable person and voter extremely upset----if they were aware of all of the facts. In 2008 and 2009 ROBBINS went to work on these sites---and what we saw was very disconcerting. Union worker representatives are compelled to file reports daily---and if a report submitted contains worker safety issues—workers are reluctant to document these incidents—fearing the site will be shut down---or work curtailed—with a loss of income resulting. We also witnessed ‘dubious collaboration’ among major corporations—relating to ‘testing’ of contamination—at a site pond directly connected to Burnaby’s water supply.
In our ROBBINS Liveable cities surveys (viewed worldwide): http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_566.html, http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_304.html,
BC Liberals prevail over BC New Democrats by (10%). Although this information is dated (mid-late April 2009), it affirms the BC Liberal lead over the BC New Democrats with homeowners in the lower mainland of the province, suggesting the BC New Democrats will have greater electoral success with those respondents who are not homeowners.

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