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ROBBINS-Here are a few points about BC election 2009.
  May 05, 2009

Commentary
Here are a few points. There is very little media coverage of the election. Real passion exists among some 'voters' but itís in clusters--.
If Campbell does as well in the North and East of Hope--I will be stunned. Also, the BC Conservatives would shock me if they didn't get real notice up there. They are working and motivated. This doesn't show up in polling with a proper adjustment. The BC Conservatives are only running 25 candidates or so. We've got the BC Liberals averaging down (10%) in the Okanagan--- from their previous 2005-and I know at least one freelancer with the Tyee--who is out in the East Kootenay chasing storms by Wilf Hanni, leader of BC Conservatives who has proven to be one heckuva good organizer. Hanni's BC Conservatives are not providing the BC Liberals any benefit north and east of Hope--again to incumbents no Richmond, Christiansen, or Hawkins---// all popular enough--the BC Liberals could get hurt in the Okanagan--Prince George too.
Theory: Campbell BC Liberals will not do as well in the north and east of hope.
It is viable --although I didn't research the precise Environics polling dates--suffice--Michael Ignatieff blue a nice breeze through Vancouver and the lower mainland--and it bumped the Liberal name brand for absolute certainty. It also made Michael Ignatieff the de factor leader of Liberals everywhere including those that now dominate the BC Liberal party. Dosanjh would be mixing with Liberals not New Democrats. That could hold up New Democrats a little in the lower mainland--but now you must consider the post debate Ipsos. Our small jury of 12 Undecided--who watched the debate--was not impressed with Campbell's performance. The aforementioned request to media for their numbers--Ipsos did a pretty large sample immediately post election--showing Carole James winning and Gordon Campbell 'losing' to Carole James. That will impact on Campbell's BC Liberals downward post Ignatieff and BC election debate. I like our "46". (See below).
Accordingly--Campbell could have matched previous (2005) lower mainland totals-maybe got a bump in Vancouver--I say (46) lower mainland--argument for (48) could be made-but its linked in large measure to Ignatieff--who had to compete with hockey--but was not overshadowed by the BC election. (70%) lower mainland 'aware' of Michael Ignatieff--one half of these 'like him'.
Campbell isn't taken seriously on Vancouver Island
The fact that we can't watch more of this BC election drama--has me stunned. A little nervous really.
If Campbell wins big with below (50%)--could be a riot.
If Campbell wins by some ---with low voter turnout--no one explanation.
If BC Liberals win by a little and Campbell loses in Point Grey--everyone pays attention.
If BC NDP wins by a little---Campbell's 'tough' comment during the debate and the drop in female vote--particularly if the women 30-40 are really motivated-- will go down in BC election folklore--it would be interesting if someone would sponsor the major media to produce information about who watched/listened and from where?
If BC NDP wins by a lot--mainstream media becomes instantly irrelevant. Notwithstanding claim of not having dollars.
Glen P. Robbins

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