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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics March 28, 2012
  Mar 28, 2012

"When I was young--my mother and father held my hand and showed me the way---now I have arrived." Glen P. Robbins

Question #1
At this point in time which British Columbia political party would you vote for if an election were held tomorrow? (adjusted for population)
New Democrats    48.66 %
BC Liberals    37.63 %
BC Conservatives    8.05 %
BC Greens    8.18 %
Undecided    5.60 %
Question #2
In your opinion which of the following choices BEST reflects your personal vision for the future of the Flathead Valley? (adjusted for population)
The Flathead Valley is well positioned to advance economic development in the region    7.06 %
The Flathead Valley should be declared official parkland by the province    51.96 %
The Flathead Valley should be left as it is    29.81 %
Undecided    11.17 %
Question #3
In your opinion should the State of Montana, United States of America-- have a say in the future of the Flathead Valley in British Columbia? (adjusted for population)
Yes    11.04 %
No    80.35 %
Undecided    8.42 %
Question #4
In your opinion should a one billion dollar development and ski resort be permitted on the Jumbo Glacier near Invermere, British Columbia? (adjusted for population)
Yes    28.63 %
No    65.51 %
Undecided    5.63 %
Commentary
Observations:
Based on adjusted data respondents in “East Kootenay”, British Columbia are (2.60%) times as likely to be of the opinion that “The Flathead Valley is well positioned to advance economic development in the region”. This multiple is obviously placed on a minority position of respondents from either “East Kootenay” or “Columbia River-Revelstoke”.
Based on adjusted data respondents in “Columbia River-Revelstoke” are 1.2 times as likely as those respondents in “East Kootenay” to be of the opinion that “The Flathead Valley should be declared official parkland.”
Based on adjusted data respondents in “East Kootenay” are 1.43 times as likely as those respondents in “Columbia River-Revelstoke” to be of the opinion that “The Flathead Valley should be left as it is.”
Based on adjusted data respondents in “East Kootenay” are 2.67 times as likely as those respondents in “Columbia River-Revelstoke to be of the opinion that “The State of Montana (sic) should have a say in the future of the Flathead Valley”. This multiple is based on a minority position.
Based on adjusted data respondents in “Columbia River-Revelstoke” are 1.115 times as likely as those in “East Kootenay” to be of the opinion that “The State of Montana (sic) should NOT have a say in the future of the Flathead Valley”.
Based on adjusted data respondents in “East Kootenay” are 1.38 times as likely as those respondents in “Columbia River-Revelstoke” to be of the opinion that “A one billion dollar development and ski resort should be permitted on the Jumbo Glacier near Invermere”.
Based on adjusted data both respondents in “East Kootenay” and “Columbia River-Revelstoke” are equally inclined to be of the opinion that “A one billion dollar development and ski resort (sic) NOT be permitted on the Jumbo Glacier near Invermere”.
Based on adjusted data as between BC Liberals and New Democrat respondents in “Columbia River-Revelstoke” are 1.69 times as likely to vote New Democrat as BC Liberal.
Based on adjusted data as between BC Liberals and New Democrat respondents in “East Kootenay” are 1.026 times as likely to vote New Democrat as BC Liberal.
Commentary:
BC New Democrats and Norm MacDonald are set to be re-elected in Columbia River-Revelstoke in the May 2009 provincial general election-- and are in a dead heat statistically with Bill Bennett’s BC Liberals in the constituency of East Kootenay.
BC Greens take voters from BC Liberals in Cranbrook, while BC Conservatives take votes from both BC New Democrats and BC Liberals in smaller towns like Revelstoke, Elkford, Fernie and Sparwood, creating an interesting political climate in this southeast corner of British Columbia.
The Flathead Valley is very controversial—however there is little doubt that respondents in the region are not particular about economic development-and are more interested in keeping the vast region parkland or in the alternative---as is. For those respondents aware of the potential for coal methane gas development—negative emphasis is added.
In terms of man-made development within the context of this poll the Jumbo Glacier ski development is better received—with one nearly one-third of respondents receptive to the development, and a majority of Invermere residents interviewed—saying “Yes” we want this economic development in our backyard.
The Jumbo Glacier is better received in Invermere than in other regions--in an ‘overall region’ of strategic calling where Cranbrook is the largest community (population 20,667)---and does not have near a majority of citizens who support the ski resort.
Falling BC Liberal support here could get a boost if Bill Bennett----stands up for what he really believes in--the development of the ski resort---//with his BC Liberal Party currently taking responsibility for the 2010 Winter Olympics---however Invermere is located in “Columbia River-Revelstoke” and is the smallest of four towns (3,000) where respondents from this B.C. constituency were interviewed (Golden (4,500); Kimberley (7,000); Revelstoke (9,000).
Sympathy for Jumbo Glacier could be achieved through recognition of the BC Supreme Courts decision---after many years of moving forward---through adversity---all manner of government in BC, leaders---more or less kept this development on-stream---they have moved through every imaginable hoop. Based on my numbers---Jumbo Glacier could with excellent public relations attain (40%) fairly quickly.
Certainly, the case for demand for Jumbo Glacier could be made-particularly in this region—as an alternative to the absolute lack of demand for economic development in the Flathead—particularly the near zero demand for coal methane.
A targeted sample of 442 'voters' from the last general provincial election in B.C. (2005) between December 18-22, 2008 in Cranbrook, Elkford, Fernie, Sparwood, Golden, Invermere, Kimberley, and Revelstoke (adjusted). This is a ROBBINS poll--"The most accurate public opinion pollster in the World" featuring a statistically measured and mathematically extrapolated margin of error (better qualified respondents pursuant to Question #1)-- of 3.75% (est.) plus or minus based on these same numbers being derived 19 times within that margin if these areas were called 20 times--(statistical) with 95% confidence (statistical). An honourarium was provided by Jim Van Rassel (604) 328-5398.
Glen P. Robbins robbins.canada@email.com

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