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ROBBINS--Democrat Barack Obama is the next President of the United States--most accurate pollster in the World
ROBBINS-only pollster in world to pick Obama as early as January 08!  Oct 13, 2008

A targeted sample of 1,050 American 'voters'--conducted between October 7-13 throughout the United States continent. This poll features a margin of error based on ROBBINS methodology of using statistical averaging--with adjustments for population---and orthodox averaging--2.5%, 19 times out of 20 @95% confidence. This is a Glen P. Robbins and Associates poll.

Question #1
Are you:?
Democrat    40.57 %
Republican    33.24 %
Independent    15.71 %
Other    4.67 %
Undecided    5.81 %
Question #2
Who do you intend to vote for----for President and Vice-President of the United States?
Barack Obama and Joe Biden    50.49 %
John McCain and Sarah Palin    42.48 %
Question #3
Is race a factor in this U.S. Presidential race?
Yes    35.71 %
No    64.29 %
Undecided    04 %
Question #4
Which of the following choices best reflects your opinion of Wall Street葉he hub of the United States financial community?
It creates wealth for the nation    11 %
It creates wealth for a few    75 %
Undecided    14 %
Question #5
Who do you trust the most on the U.S. economy?
Barack Obama    45 %
John McCain    36 %
Commentary
Comments:
Support for Barak Obama and Joe Biden is (24.45%) higher than support for Democrats. Support for John McCain and Sarah Palin is (27.80%) higher than support for Republicans. On a basis of success among those respondents who are not part of your party base柚cCain achieves (53.21%) majority support.
Support for Obama on the matter of the economy is (11%) higher than his party base. Support for McCain is (8%) higher than party base.
John McCain is supported by nearly 52% of Independents, Obama and Biden have three times the support of 喪esidual of minority pool of 徹ther from question #1. Even if John McCain grinds out another 8% of he gains (1.25%) forward預nd if this swap were zero sum against Obama痴 support 疎ccount than 2.5%--gain for McCain in a perfect gain of Independent support. John McCain would need to do this in three different zero sum vote swaps---or two of these and by taking over 70% Undecided痴. What a daunting task.
Race is a factor because of (a) recent events in news proclaiming that some McCain supporters are making an issue of it; (b) many Democrats supporters are reacting defensively to it, (c) an overwhelming majority of African Americans intend to support an African American (Democratic) candidate (d) because the most likely next leader of the United States is an African American, a first for that country.
From this poll悠 don稚 get any sense that there is any negative race sentiment about Barack Obama謡here there may be預re those that are unsure of his epistemological origins耀uch as was witnessed at a recent town hall meeting for John McCain.
What this ROBBINS poll suggests is that John McCain barring some unforeseen event, or major Obama gaffe幼annot win this presidential election. There are reasons for this which I can explain.
First of all, the financial meltdown on U.S. markets and markets all over the world揺as made the economy the most important issue by a Wall Street margin幼all. The economy has been the most important issue by varying degrees for at least the last six months of this U.S presidential election.
John McCain has not been successful on the economy. The war in Iraq is a reminder to Americans of its expense預nd the impact of that expense on their domestic economy. No matter where the presidential debate goes擁t must always return to the economy which John McCain cannot win. The American people cannot be cheated out of the debate as we are here in Canada傭ecause of the longer more protracted election. The head of the meltdown horse is just sticking its head out of Canada痴 proverbial political barn預nd Canadians will not receive the full story---just a holiday that will feature a creature with a relatively met(h)aphoric tie to Canada痴 next Parliament(based on the premise of the 兎lection that never was). The Americans run for one and one half years佑anadians run for a month謡ho is lazy? John McCain was always behind on the economy---stated容mphatically that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy were strong預nd they weren稚.
Canadian and American 壮laves are suckers. They buy into a program that is set against their success. The drug dealers have a better opportunity for success all things being equal. I don稚 mean to be flip預nd I am not desirous of being perceived as neither anarchist nor apologist傭ut how else can I say this? What does 創on nonsense Independent---- Lou Dobbs think?
John McCain you want to buy time on this guy痴 show.
When was the last time a person made a fortune after coming to the country with nothing? It doesn稚 happen---Trump was poor by rich people standards謡ith a $10 or 20 million dollar head start. It痴 true in New York that may be nothing預lthough today擁f it痴 liquid葉hank you very much. There are opportunities for new concepts-- new ideas. Who was that little guy who ran for President遥our children and your children痴 children傭illionaire揺e actually made most of his fortune from federal contracts. There are fewer and fewer people making it big the old fashioned way---by working a better product into the market. The market fails because innovation has been replaced by greed and 渡ot what you know---but who you know prevails. In Canada葉he best mousetrap means nothing擁t痴 the Marxist paradigm熔f means of production. In America様ike Conrad Black-- it will rise from the ashes擁n Canada they will hold onto the means of production熔f ownership even when they aren稚 good at it曜ust drop the Canadian dollar預nd make sure you call us a country-every once in a while.
How is it that when the American President, Senate and Congress come up with $700 billion or so擁t痴 a bail-out in response to a financial meltdown謡hen the Canadian government (and not the Prime Minister) proposes 25 billion庸or banks---it won稚 cost the taxpayer a thing? No-one in the Canadian Press (that I could see-hear-etc.) took this apart妖uring a national election謡hile an election was taking place in the United States as well. Stunning---absolutely stunning.
Secondly, the Republican base is not the equal of the Democratic base. Republican voter base over the past year has been consistently smaller than the Democratic vote base whether you contact 600 voters, 1,000 voters or 10,000 voters or 1,000,000,000 respondents/voters. John McCain was not hampered by this預t first----- because----- he was poaching Democrats and Democratic Independents-- while Obama was fighting with Hillary.
John McCain knew he had to confront this reality sooner than later. Obama and Hillary spent big dough on their mutual campaigns傭ecause the idea was that the Democratic winner-- is the next President of the United States. John McCain got a break with the Huckabee fight遥es庸ew were paying attention傭ut that stopped when Rep [ub} lican VP candidate Sarah Palin---brought Victoria Secret back to men痴 lives. In retrospect幽uckabee may have been a better choice涌bama wins by 1.5%. McCain and Huckabee are Republican heroes. But Hillary Clinton isn稚 in the final four---Sarah Palin is---the first Republican woman in the final four. Even if she dips down--------Palin common shares are an open buy in my political ledger.
McCain knew all this. The Democrats went into a convention that was near perfect. I was out of bed doing calisthenics曜ogging謡alking my Dog---my wife was happy涌bama was going to speak that night裕hursday night. Amazing production. Does McCain go with Romney謡ho in retrospect looks like a Wall Street tycoon? Huckabee who appealed to the base and was a down home fellow?熔r does he try a stunt揺e chose the latter祐arah Palin governor of Alaska.
What are a few Americans afraid of in Barack Obama? That he might be a poor President or a great President? Whatever he may or may not be---Americans trust him more on the economy than John McCain預nd Obama has used the economy as the inextricable twine that binds McCain to Bush---how does McCain reverse this預s time runs out?
I could have managed Sarah Palin better擁f I were drunk-- than the Republicans who handled her. 鄭ll that ass and she don稚 know how to shake it. (Kid Rock).
The thing about John McCain that is big葉hat nobody knows--- is that he likes to gamble from time to time and when he does揺e goes in big. Thirty five billion of the 750 billion could go in to Iraq and Afghanistan預ll the marbles庸oreign policy discussion謡ith the meltdown it痴 all on the table my friend. Cue McCain/Palin/Hail/Mary.
American voters are surer about Joe Biden. Remember what ROBBINS said on September 15, 2008 about Joe Biden:
擢rankly, and this doesn稚 matter but I like Joe Biden揺e is a good man預nd good men like good women should have their say. (I suppose bad woman and bad men should have their say as well). It is my personal opinion that if Barack Obama is the next President of the United States用eople will credit Joe Biden with a big assist. You heard it here first! This isn稚 pandering葉he best political debater in the United States is Joe Biden揺e can afford to be humble揺e has knock out power預nytime anywhere.
Third, African Americans support Obama by an overwhelming majority. If all other things are relatively equal預nd race is less of a factor because the economy is such a huge factor葉han if African Americans follow through預nd vote in the high numbers as they are expected to葉han not only is the Republican base smaller than the Democrat base---the number of one ethnic group which constitutes nearly 15% of the countries population耀kews Obama痴 advantage particularly when African Americans are among the poorest demographic in the nation預nd poor people won稚 rule傭ut they will have a say傭ecause now they know that the stock market needs everybody for their sordid tricks.
All in all憂ohn McCain痴 chances for victory---are-- as CNN contributor Ed Rollins says--- 杜athematical.
McCain and Obama exchange party supporters between them in equal numbers. Base support thus remains unaffected and one element of voter preference is accounted for. McCain has only a few more supporters from our third largest pool of supporters傭ut this is really a tie. Thus a large group of supporter is accounted for and the party preference base still hasn稚 changed.
In our fourth largest pool of voters---前ther Obama and Biden perform slightly better than McCain and Palin容ven if this pool of support were higher for McCain/Palin it wouldn稚 make much of a difference傭ecause the majority of 徹ther痴 aren稚 interested in either set of candidates for president and vice president. Now we致e accounted for all of our identified voters except for Undecided.
Undecided痴 on the question of which set of leaders they would support for president and vice president---were far more inclined to select the response that Wall Street 田reates wealth for a few迫as well42% of these respondents were inclined to say that 途ace was a factor, in the U.S. election. Will these Undecided help John McCain謡ill Ron Paul endorse McCain? ---a couple of points there? Still short!
What does CNN痴 citizen advocate extraordinaire Lou Dobbs thinks about this?
If all the Undecided痴 voters and Ron Paul step forward預nd support McCain謡hat is the upshot---McCain is still a point behind預nd the economy stinks. In our view only a very extraordinary foreign policy event蓉nexpected預s big as the financial meltdown謡ould need to occur for McCain to have a chance.
You see? There is no need to pile on---the performances熔ver the past two or three weeks---of the U.S. Presidential election. Both of these presidential candidates have been scrutinized, probed容xamined----etc. Obama more so than McCain---except for those health records.
Both Obama and McCain have sold themselves as agents of change傭ut as Barack was asked over and over---repeatedly---change for what葉o what---or is it just change for the sake of change(a fair comment)?
Well---the meltdown on Wall Street begs changes---begs----like dogs beg様ike poor people beg---Barack has owned economy as a presidential issue forever. John McCain owned war預nd the meltdown made it all about the economy---Winner唯arack Obama.
Right now--- (the funk show brother) John McCain looks like a maverick among elected officials---Washington DC elected officials. Didn稚 Washington approve this bail-out package? Don稚 Obama and McCain both belong to Washington? Didn稚 they caste this in their political blood when they voted in the bail-out package for rich people and others? Both Obama and McCain went out and sold the package to America. De facto they worked for Washington葉hat痴 who pays them預nd they worked for George W. Bush. War Bonds 08.
So涌bama is the most likely winner (and I will take up to one million dollar bets謡ith Obama 2-1) --- because he wins OVER AND OVER on the economy which is the number one issue and has been the number issue for many months輸ND this issue has been illuminated and amplified by the financial meltdown by the crooks on Wall Street謡ho pay for the crooks in the institutions用olitical and legal葉o keep the rest 登f those insects away from them. Obama and McCain are politically aligned to the establishment even though the establishment is a political pariah. So who is the agent of change---Obama or McCain?
McCain痴 change which he has touted forcefully and for many months is supported by his long history in Washington where he enacted bi-partisan bills預cross the aisle洋eaning he works with other people who don稚 necessarily have the same belief system as he does.
Barack Obama has been described as inexperienced by just about anyone who has spoken about the election including many of his own party.
鄭 community organizer muses-- than later crows-- Republican VP Sarah Palin妖issing the ultimate Black Panther President (not the protestor Black Panther group). Now foxy lady擁f it is your desire to solicit votes from U.S. citizens (and others of varying degrees) and you also want to be known as the agent of change謡hen this change is seen as someone more distant from Washington用resumably---isn稚 a community organizer謡ho is the most viable on the economy葉he absolute best place to look?
Barack謡ho is from Chicago--- owns the economy because he is inexperienced which makes him trustworthy//as against alternatives---- when Washington (politics) and New York (financial) are not.
But events like these are not dreamed up overnight. Accordingly, Barack Obama is the next President of the United States.
Glen P. Robbins

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