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Obama-Clinton-The ROBBINS hypothesis continues
  Mar 10, 2008

ROBBINS poll first published @ approx 11:45 PST, March 10, 2008. A random telephone sample of 400 Democratic Party supporters combined with 125 Independent supporters. This ROBBINS poll of 525 American citizens between March 5-9, 2008 features a margin of error of 5.75%, 19 times out of 20-with an all in competency/confidence (including ROBBINS internal measurements) of 97%. This poll is internally funded.

Question #1
Which candidate for Democratic Party nominee for President do you prefer?
Barack Obama    42.5 %
Hillary Clinton    36 %
Undecided    9.5 %
Neither    8.5 %
Question #2
As a consequence of breaking Democratic Party rules, delegates from both Florida and Michigan will not be ‘seated’ at the Democratic convention this August. Is this an acceptable situation to you?
Yes    36 %
No    50 %
Question #3
Some in the Democratic Party have resolved to hold a primary ‘of some type’ in order to facilitate the seating of all Florida and Michigan delegates at the Democratic convention at a cost of $10 million to $30 million. Is this acceptable to you?
Yes    47 %
No    40 %
Question #4
In your opinion, would it be better to save the millions that a primary would cost, and apportion Florida and Michigan delegates on a 50/50 basis to Senator(s) Obama and Clinton?
Yes    62 %
No    31 %
Question #5
In your opinion, would it be better to save the millions that a primary would cost, and apportion Florida and Michigan delegates on a 50/50 basis to Senator(s) Obama and Clinton-but only apportion one half of the available delegates on that basis?
Yes    48 %
No    30 %
Question #6
Would you accept a Democratic ‘ticket’ for the White House, featuring Hillary Clinton as President and Barack Obama as Vice-President?
Yes    36 %
No    44 %
Question #7
Would you accept a Democratic ‘ticket’ for the White House, featuring Barack Obama as President and Hillary Clinton as Vice-President?
Yes    40 %
No    36 %
Question #8
In your opinion, is Mike Huckabee ‘a type’ of politician you see favourably?
Yes    41 %
No    40 %
Commentary
Observations/Spin
Among ‘decided’ Democrat supporters Barack Obama receives approximately (49.7%) support while Hillary Clinton received (47.6%)-notwithstanding polling vernacular-a close race.
Among ‘decided’ Democrat and Independent respondents aged 20-50, Obama receives (62%) of respondent support, while Hillary Clinton receives (55.5%) support from respondents in this poll aged 50-80 in this ROBBINS poll.
Obama beats Clinton nearly 2 to 1 among Independents in this ROBBINS poll of “U.S. citizens”.
More than one-third of respondents think it is acceptable for Florida and Michigan NOT to sit delegates as ‘punishment’ for moving up primaries without consent from the DNC, however one half do not. A large number of Independents believe delegates from Florida and Michigan should not be seated, most of whom are Barack Obama supporters. This might suggest those Independents who support Barack Obama are ‘into’ the “populism renaissance” his candidacy brings-and are not interested in the Democratic Party soap opera. “How does the candidate know his regular delegates are going to stay with him/her?”
Holding another set of primaries in Florida and Michigan receives a (54%) favourable response from ‘decided’ respondents, while a clear majority of nearly two-thirds agrees with allocating all Florida and Michigan delegates on a 50/50 basis, while a slightly smaller number agree with a the aforementioned 50/50 apportionment, with only one half the designated number total of delegates otherwise available to be seated. Democratic principles of the highest magnitude should be every nation’s goal, however to paraphrase Mr. Dean to my own selfish end, ‘what are outsiders going to say about Americans, if under this type of media scrutiny-and the entire free world watching---closely---even the party holding two candidates that (along with McCain) have growing totals of Americans and others watching Americans politics---you change your own rules in midstream?
Dude-that’s ghastly. The Republicans (in Florida) may take a part for growing this problem, but where is the accountability from Democrats at the State level? Or is this somehow the bizarre embodiment of all that was ever wrong in Washington, flowing through in some toxic-and very uncomfortable-yet hauntingly interesting-Democratic Party final countdown-Hillary and Barack-or—you know!
American popular music is going through terrific changes. Young people are having the same type of music utopia experience that we did in the sixties. They are motivated at the heart, mind and spiritual level. The manifestation of this so-called renaissance is Barack Obama. You are watching the Muhammad Ali of politics-during the second phase assertion of American hegemony in the world. How history is written-and the implications of this U.S.-election are overwhelming. The clearest contrast is drawn between McCain and Obama. I believe there is a yearning for this contest among the public. This has nothing to do with Hillary Clinton save it doesn’t benefit her. Americans seek cool distractions to keep them from cracking up Under Pressure (cue-: Queen here). They understand that Presidential elections are important. Democrats and Independents in this poll understand this in equal measure. Finally, we will see for ourselves what the ‘greatest democracy in the world’ can produce. To produce a renaissance in America-one should follow the advice of Nell Painter’s prescription-(American needs to go (grow) from a consumer culture-to a citizen culture. Citizenship- being “the proper manifestation of mankind into a new functional social order which can help to mitigate the abuses of ‘unfair’ markets on communities.”
Before you brand this socialist fare-rethink this-the new market of voter has an Internet profile-I confess my readership is probably more Obama than Clinton-but B4 you accuse me-our polls (like most others)-favoured Hillary Clinton-we are not against her winning-we believe we are properly describing the meteorological signs-along with the political topography. There’s Google Earth-and now there’s ROBBINS Earth. Either way it s view to a room. And oh by the way-I think Hillary won in Ohio cuz of Jackie. A lot of men and women like Jack Nicholson-he matters.
If there are going to be hardships and some struggle back to Black (that’s for you Connie), Americans damn well want the best show on earth for their political dollars. Americans want to see the revolution played out in front of their eyes. Older long time Washington politician John McCain’s experience is Hillary Clinton’s experience-relative to the average message to the average voter-and this message is a major part of what Obama supporters don’t want. They don’t want Hillary Clinton and they don’t want John McCain. It is part of the Obama campaign constitution. The real tell tale sign-is how much money these candidates raise-over how many supporters/members etc. Any collaborating evidence of sustained popular support through new memberships and contributions-should help the respective candidates work through their decisions, and permit us to look over their shoulders to see if they fudge any of the numbers. (Sometimes when I see John McCain-I think of Javier in ‘No Country for Old Men-he is so dogged and determined-relentless.)
News television stations really need to drill down on their audiences to ensure the most utility in messaging-to vast markets of potential voters-and well placed advertising for clients-to enhance their messaging to these markets-(men will switch stations during a television show they like-if the advertisement is annoying-and will often be drawn to another station as a result-some female voters are the same way-but the traffic is between Obama and McCain primarily) -and television will once again take its rightful place as the most important medium in the universe-at least the regulated universe-Obama supporters live in the unregulated world of the Internet. Look at the markets-the emerging demographics of Middle American ‘demand’. Difficult economic times will hasten the need for more proper identification of new trends-as they emerge-in the new economy-and they will.
(During this polling period-DNC Howard Dean spoke of using mail out ballots-at what cost we are not so sure).
A democratic ticket with Hillary Clinton as President and Barack Obama as Vice-President falls short of majority favour, while a Barack Obama as President and Hillary Clinton as Vice-President is seen with majority support.
Barack Obama as President and Hillary Clinton as Vice President are more sellable to Democrats-and Democrats and Independents, than Hillary Clinton for President and Barack Obama for Vice-President is.
A significant number of Obama supporters either don’t want their candidate as vice-president to Hillary Clinton-or JUST want him for President. A small number of Hillary Clinton supporters do not want Barack Obama. Are older middle age woman a little more uncomfortable with African Americans than they have let on? A fewer number of Hillary Clinton supporters are against Clinton for VP-while Obama is the Presidential candidate, than those who are against Obama for VP, while Hillary is President.
Many Obama supporters want John Edwards as VP.
Men and younger women are against Obama for Vice-President-while a handful of older woman are dead against Hillary for Vice-President on this Presidential ticket-and clearly not keen on Obama.
Mike Huckabee- a candidate for Republican nominee- is seen positively by many Democrat and Independent respondents in this poll. Like Hillary Clinton he received a majority of his support during primaries-from people living in rural areas.
Senator Clinton’s problem isn’t just the math of the delegates. There are other problems. For well over a year men and women in equal proportions supported the New York Senator. Now, with the Republicans having a presumptive nominee in McCain-a male perceived as ‘macho’ by many male voters, and the Democrats with their own version of ‘macho’ in Barack Obama-and Independents being comprised of more males than females-and Conservatives using a kind of Trojan horse technique of purporting not to like McCain= the Arizona Senator ‘gobbles up’ more Independents, real women, and the increasing number of Americans who may not support the Iraq war-but have one eye on the success of the surge-and you realize---- that no matter how good she is-Senator Clinton is going to come up a little short of 50%--.
Math is like that. Pretty cold.
It is literally the accumulation of basis points from a number of ‘columns’ which add up to ‘close but no cigar’ kind of scenario for Ms. Clinton’s aspirations for the White House.
For Hillary Clinton to beat Barack Obama she needs some type of zero sum game plan (she wins-he loses). Each time this happens-it erodes the credibility of the Democratic Party. In essence the tougher she plays to win-the more she spins her wheels-as she may win a primary here or there with these tactics, but is vulnerable to losing national support while she does it, and hurting the party through this ‘ordeal’. Evidence of this is the small number of women respondents (Obama supporters)-{could we get all the next software to not underline his name for spell-check?} who are now declaring “she is a monster”. This can’t be good. There is no ticket for these two right now-I don’t know how you sell it. I for one don’t want to see politicians kissing and making up-it undermines the pursuit of higher ideals for short term ‘candied’ glorification.
Calling the Catholic church a “whore” is despicable language. To do so is to speak of every woman as a whore, when the beginning of the world, for those who see the universe this way-Mother Mary gave birth to a son, Jesus Christ through Immaculate Conception-no sex (the final reconciliation with the Old Testament). The vessel for God’s new world was Mary-according to the Catholic Church-this makes Mary equal to God in the delivery of a spiritual renaissance in the name of Jesus Christ. Obama can go negative on Clinton-and remain supported. He makes Clinton-McCain and than bombs away. Greater utility might come from making the commercials and showing them to the other side. Obama has two ‘Kings’ while Clinton has two Sixes.
I am last for language police-but this is the wrong message being sent to everyone. Religion may bother some people, but it is very important to many others. At least for the absolute most part of it-it offers positive and thoughtful sanctuary to many. Hope to many more. I believe this should be cleared up quickly.
Anytime the original rules to a game change-no matter the rationale-some credibility will be lost to onlookers. It is tough enough for voters to make a choice of candidates from limited information-amidst hype-to have to decipher their selection through a myriad of high drama and logistical or political problems is not attractive.
The Democrats are already looking down the barrel of the anti-credibility gun with their emerging Super Delegate problem-as time goes on and this becomes a larger factor-AND Florida and Michigan remain unresolved, McCain simply has to put his pieces together and he wins in November.
The Democrats need to think and act as if their party were the underdog, and act with as much common sense as possible in the middle of acute political hyperbole. If you can’t solve your party’s problems, you can’t obviously run the country. If the Democrats believe they can pin procrastination on George W. Bush- into perpetuity-they are mistaken. He has been President for two terms, and none of these candidates have been President for even one day. Relying on George W. Bush to be Everlasting on your list of whipping posts-may be the soft spot the Democrats never saw coming-
George W. Bush will be at the Republican convention and he will help John McCain.
The Democrats knew the rules going in, and yes the Republicans in Florida helped construct the problem for them-but here is the real problem going forward. There is little chance Hillary Clinton will acquire more regular delegates than Barack Obama based upon the way proportional distribution of the delegates shakes out in the Democratic primaries. Even if she wins a few more strategic primaries there are diminishing returns that momentum brings as the two candidates reach the end of the primary season.
If Hillary wins by any way other than the natural selection of delegates and a similar proportion of her percentage of overall delegates-from Super Delegates-Barack’s people are gone-and the Democrats will lose in November.
Here’s the raw data. The (sur) prize in the Democratic Party is Barack Obama. New members and Independents prefer him over Hillary. He wins in urban and suburban areas. Hillary wins in the rural areas. The candidate with the highest priority for nominee for President has to be the one who wins in the most populous areas. This isn’t exactly congruent with strategies for the Electoral College format-which underpins the selection of the President of the United States-but most votes is generally a good beginning.
Mike Huckabee does well in rural areas-at least he does better there than John McCain-and people like him-in fact Democrats and some Independents like him as well. Sometimes a likeable honest, gracious and hopeful candidate can do amazing things for the people of a country, particularly when the people are not feeling quite as hopeful.
(speaking of Independents-did you see the news footage of New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg after the bomb attack in New York-just one day after our ROBBINS poll on Mr. Bloomberg-anyhow-- there is Bloomberg giving a speech at a podium with a half dozen or so tough looking hombres in support. Anyhow-we like this Bloomberg-he’s rich-he’s different-and he’s serious-Bloomberg looks like he could ‘think you dead’-and it might happen).
Against the angst of the Democratic race, John McCain’s circumstance is looking better all the time.

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