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Obama Clinton, Is This It?
  Mar 04, 2008

Infosource Media Services Coquitlam, British Columbia Canada
A combined random and targeted survey of 1,467 respondents who ‘support the Democratic Party’- throughout the continental United States, Hawaii and Alaska. This poll was conducted between February 25-March 2, 2008. This poll features a margin of error of < (2.65%), 19 times out of 20 @ 99.00% confidence levels. This poll was sponsored by ‘an American business interest with no discernable tie to either Senators Clinton or Obama’. The ‘person responsible’ claims to have “wanted Al Gore win the Democratic nomination”. There is no link, or tie that we can discern between the persons assisting with funding the poll and former Vice-President Al Gore. The nature of the questions and the outcomes-in our opinion-are of no prejudice to any of the remaining candidates, specifically Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Question #1
In your opinion is solving the problem of Global Warming as important an issue to you right now as is solving perceived problems under the economy: including jobs, education and training.
Yes    39.04 %
No    48.6 %
Undecided    12.4 %
Question #2
In your opinion does Global Warming constitute a threat to the World and the United States?
Yes    74.1 %
No    28.7 %
Undecided    3.5 %
Question #3
Do you approve of the Presidential nominee of the Democratic Party seeking out New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a multi-billionaire and longtime philanthropist and philosopher- to be the Vice-President on the Democratic ticket?
Yes    26.3 %
No    28.7 %
Undecided    44.5 %
Commentary
Observations and Spin:
Barack Obama is more popular than Hillary Clinton among respondents in the United States who “desire that the next President of the United States comes from the Democratic Party.” Obama consistently tracks over 50% of ‘decided’ voters with a little room to spare. Nationally, this is still close, and anything can happen in politics-(not so much a caveat of convenience but in this race one of reason), but this poll-others-ROBBINS previous polls, which so accurately reflected changing trends in the U.S. Presidential election-including the rise of Barack Obama- are once again making our ‘mark’ in history at what could be the end of the Democratic race on Tuesday, March 4.
Decided percentage of support: Obama in Florida is (50.5%), while Clinton in Michigan (46.5%). Obama in Texas is (52%) while Clinton is (47%). Clinton in Ohio is (51.5%). Each survey within this ROBBINS poll is based on 150-215-215-300 calls (respectively), with an average margin of error of (7.5%). Texas’s Undecided in the survey element of this ROBBINS poll is lowest at (4.5%). Florida’s Undecided is highest at (11%). The margin of error in these four states the number of responses designated is >6.55%. Not a great deal of insight into the actual outcomes of the primaries as they relate to Ohio and Texas, but a nice overlay to the larger context of this national poll. Clinton is doing slightly better in Ohio, Florida, Michigan, and Texas than she is nationally-but there is ghostly little difference between the two. A will o wisp of ‘support transfer’ at the polls- from one candidate to the other could change everything (and we didn’t track Sunday, Monday or Tuesday-primary day).
We also know that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are about even in Michigan and Florida. This might help save some money and offer the hypothetical that if Florida and Michigan were contested at or about this time-they would be even races-though in a delegate scrap I suppose the Undecided in Florida and Michigan could provoke a change one way or the other of 20-50 delegates.
I believe Senator Obama has crested to a kind of level 1 saturation of support. The Undecided’s for the Democrats is incredibly low. Hillary is charging to break Obama-if she is successful and wins either Ohio and Texas and wins Rhode Island than this last minute surge was successful and momentum changes. If Obama wins all States tomorrow even by a little-Hillary has to think seriously about leaving the race, even if they are only a few percentage points apart. Let me explain:
In our ROBBINS polls over the past six months, Barack Obama first started from behind Hillary Clinton by about (15%) ROBBINS-while mainstream public opinion had him (30%) behind Clinton. Four weeks ago, ROBBINS called Obama in the lead by (2-3%),while the mainstream called Clinton ahead by (12-20%). ROBBINS than called Obama (5-7%) ahead of Clinton and we also mused that Obama’s lead could be as high as (10-11%). Now his lead is around (04%), but the Undecided has dropped. Obama’s decided support is consistently over (52%) reasonably inferred from outcomes and Undecided. Frankly, it is our opinion that Barack’s rise of (20%) makes sense, not (30-35%) as the mainstream would have us believe. Barack’s legions of fans cannot be processed fast enough. He is so popular that the ability to get the fans to the ballots is great, but it could be even more massive. If his campaign has this organized than he will win well-back to (7-10%). If Obama is bottle necking at all-or Clinton has either taken back some of the woman vote-an Obama lead of (4-5%) can be expected. Some of the Obama assault on Clinton voters and retrieval of Undecided’s may have abated slightly with the unrepentant assault on Obama by Clinton. If Obama’s winning trend continues against this pressure-we have the paramount contender for President of the United States of America.
Barack Obama in fact- just ‘bitched slapped’ a sloppy Canadian foreign affairs-whether or not the voters picked up on Obama looking like he was hypocritical-as was spun by Clinton and McCain, or Obama ‘looking Presidential’ by saving Ohio workers from Canadians taking their jobs-will determine how Ohio goes down. Canada’s Prime Minister Stephen Harper needs to find out who is responsible in foreign affairs and determine if this was Liberal sabotage-or was it part of an overall conspiracy by Canadian Catholics for Clinton (CCC)>=
Clinton has to pick up (60-65%) of the Undecided vote. No simple task.
Hillary Clinton tracks support through respondent groups of 700 respondents as follows (‘decided’ respondents)*: (48.0%); (47.7%); (43.8%); (50.33%); (47.69%). Barack Obama tracks support through respondent groups of 700 as follows: (51.9%; (52.3%); (52.5%); (51.38%); (52.02%).
*please note that decided respondents does not include those respondents listed as “Undecided”.
Economic times get tough and demand from the electorate (Democrats) for solutions to Global Warming drops. Not hugely, but enough to matter. When confronted with tough challenges particularly when many citizens are hurting and/or fearing the future, it is not easy to accept the concept of more and more of less and less money is being earmarked for people who are already apparently rich and comfortable. Same message in Canada in our recent Harper-Dion ROBBINS ‘woodshed’ poll.
Condie Rice U.S. Secretary of State recently went to Japan. The unofficial reason was to apologize for the fact that all candidates for President of the United States are going to have to evacuate all over the Kyoto Accord, while Nobel Peace prize winner Al Gore is a staunch supporter of Kyoto.
Three-quarters of respondents who support the Democratic Party and their two All-Star candidates, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, still see Global Warming as a problem which constitutes a threat to the World and the United States.
Our focus of Michael Bloomberg images: standing at a podium, getting in and out of limousines, while Iggy Pop’s ‘Dangerous’ is playing-illicits the highest feedbacks in terms of which ‘ United States political personality’ exudes “the most power”, higher than John McCain’s. Scope Michael Bloomberg out, he is mysterious, a little dangerous, and a philosopher king for our own time. Even where is defies political logic, I still like him.
(Bloomberg must need massage therapy to manage all the ‘ass-kissing’ that goes on his life-don’t mind if I pile on-my Jewish shrink always told me to do the self-deprecated ‘thing’ early-but never too much).
This Presidential race is about being dangerous, taking political risks-when one mistake can knock you out.
Americans are excited about it. Imagine Obama and Bloomberg on the Democratic ticket. Leaves no doubt Obama’s foreign policy advocacy will hold up as credible when the dust settles. You can’t put Clinton and Bloomberg together. She’s not a Rock ‘n’ Roll girl.
Unless of course it’s McCain and Bloomberg. Talk about a foreign policy ‘hammer’.
Glen P. Robbins (604) 942-3757 www.robbinssceresearch.com
*Jim Van Rassel is a member of MRIA Marketing Research and Intelligence Association/L'Association de la recherche et de l'intelligence marketing

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