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Gangs of New York 2-President of the United States 08-09-
first released at 10:45 PST  Feb 26, 2008

A random telephone survey of 1, 055 respondents (U.S.)between February February 20 and 25th, 2008. This poll features a margin of error of 3.13%, 19 times out of 20 @99% confidence. Internally funded.

Question #1
Which of these political affiliations BEST describes you?
Democrat    42.6 %
Republican    33.9 %
Independent    23.4 %
Other/Undecided    21.22 %
Question #2
Which of the following limited choices BEST describes your current opinion of Republican presumptive nominee John McCain?
I like John McCain but I don’t like the Republican Party    10.7 %
I like John McCain and I support the Republican Party    35.8 %
I don’t like John McCain or the Republican Party    41.5 %
Undecided    12 %
Question #3
Of these two candidates, whom do you prefer for President of the United States?
Barack Obama    52.9 %
John McCain    47.1 %
Undecided    11.4 %
Question #4
Of these two candidates, whom do you prefer for President of the United States?
Hillary Clinton    48.8 %
John McCain    46.8 %
Undecided    16.2 %
Commentary
Observations:
According to this ROBBINS poll nearly (43%) of respondents who say ‘they vote’ in Presidential elections, call themselves ‘Democrats’. Nearly one out of four are characterizing themselves as “Independent”, -higher than we had anticipated. Slightly more than one third chooses ‘Republican’.
One interpretation of the overall data suggests personal candidate name labels illicit a higher degree of specific decision making- particularly from those respondents who are Independents or otherwise ‘unclear’ how they feel about the different party choices. The name label Independent is very cool and chic at this time. There is a correlation between the number of Independents in the country and Hillary Clinton’s success. Barack Obama snags the most Independents, McCain is second and Clinton is third. All other factors remaining constant, as Independents increase, Hillary Clinton’s success decreases-as Independents decrease Hillary Clinton’s support increases. Are Huckabee supporters (presumably part of Other/Undecided) not declaring their party (Republican) just yet? Which leader will inherit Huckabee’s supporters? Has Methodist Mary poached some of these supporters?
Following question 1 we are able to track Independents and Undecided through another question with three options, and following that to two options depicting the most likely available choices for President. We were able to manage (65%) of total “Independents” and “Undecided” from question #1 into an area of identification which permits more accurate assumptions about the most likely three candidates to become President of the United States.
“I like John McCain and I support the Republican Party” is supported by (5.6%) more than the percentage of respondents who support the Republican Party (33.9%). Using the same methodology (2.6%) more respondents say they are ‘Democrats’ then “don’t like John McCain or the Republican Party”.
(46.5%) of all respondents like either Senator John McCain or he and his party. (41.5%) don’t like him, while (52.2%) don’t like the Republican Party, and (12%) are “Undecided”.
McCain and Republican score (38%) to (41%) using party label at (.75) of totals for one calculation and leader label at (.50) for another calculation. Barack Obama scores at (45.18%) when party label is (.75), and (47.75%) when leader label is (.50). Hillary Clinton scores at (44.05%) when party label is (.75) and (44.5%) when leader label is (.50%). When leader label increases from (.25) to (.50) John McCain and Republican increase (7.8%). Using the same measurement, Barack Obama increases (5.6%) and Hillary Clinton increases (01%). John McCain and Barack Obama add more value to their respective party names than does Senator Clinton.
Statistically, ROBBINS scores support for Senator John McCain and his Republican Party at (44.1%) support from the American ‘voting’ population. This is based on the fact that one of the two popular Democrats must lose and not all of the loser’s supporters will stay Democrat. If there are only two parties in the race does this suggest that Democrats have (55.9%) of support? This is certainly consistent with the number that says they are ‘Democrats’. This would also support the theory that as soon as one of the two remaining Democrats departs-the leverage of the DNC relative to the remaining candidate in the party increases as well. If the numbers suggested in this poll are correct than Barack Obama is more likely to balance the leadership-party equation more quickly than Hillary Clinton is, particularly as he has significantly more Independent support than Ms. Clinton has-and John McCain competes well for Independents.
Barack Obama has a (94.4%) ‘Correlation’ to Democrat support, while Hillary Clinton’s is (86.4%).
Do these numbers reflect a national lead of slightly over (08%) for Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton when comparing Democrat supporters or could the number be closer to (12%) nationwide?
Spin:
Hillary Clinton reveals in this ROBBINS poll what “Desperate Housewives” can do when pushed to the wall. Her inability to stop or poach the steady stream of new or existing Obama support, has forced her to ‘borrow’’ some of John McCain’s-and maybe a few Huckabee supporters at the same time. (Listen to: Sara by Bob Dylan for more insight). This latter supposition-along with polling responses and an article written in the New York Times, which questioned John McCain’s ethics and his honour as a gentleman and husband, left John McCain on the defensive while Hillary raided his flock. ‘Mr. Straight Talk himself is not so straight’ say his opponents. “Welcome to Team Pink and how do you like us so far?” “It’s (the article) baloney” argue McCain ‘supporters’-“the paper quotes anonymous sources- what kind of story is that?”
This raises the issue of credibility- that of a major newspaper and a man-a Presidential candidate- who currently has (in our estimation) a 4.5 out of 10 chance of becoming the next U.S. President-when 5.1 gets it. This story is going to hang around someway- somehow. Was it the New York Times that Socialist Libertarian Chomsky takes apart in his book (and film) Manufacturing Consent?
The Times article rocked John McCain, but he handled it well. McCain seems to get energized when there is conflict and pressure. This is the kind of person you want to consider for the White House don’t you think? The Arizona Senator was forced to survive a week of Democratic merriment- defending scandals. Democrats need to keep McCain on the defensive, they are afraid his support will surge if Hillary gets knocked out March 4, 2008. If McCain can make his point on Iraq-the race for the President will be even- fast.
Rush Limbaugh, a talk show conservative who has criticized McCain, and vowed not to support him-now ‘dresses’ in Republican war fatigues (purchased from a Made in America manufacturer), and has called All Republicans to arms against the New York Times, long considered a very liberal newspaper- which means Mr. Limbaugh now supports Senator McCain or alternatively, has to directly decide if he still supports Democrat Hillary Clinton? Good luck with that.
Hillary Clinton barged her way into middle spot on the overall popularity of the three main contenders (after lagging behind) for President by taking some McCain ‘female support’ {and other}, sidelining other potential McCain support from Undecided reserves, and adding to her own totals by getting her name on a few more Independents.
She had to// Barack Obama is still the top contender for the job of “President---of—the United States of America”, (this phrase definitely stolen) and Clinton needs higher national totals preceding the March 4, 2008 votes particularly in Texas and Ohio.
Mainstream pollsters now show the national support for both Obama and Clinton close, this ROBBINS poll suggesting Obama still has a discernable advantage notwithstanding statistical considerations for margin of error.
A number of things happened here. Hillary Clinton was getting thumped over the past few weeks. Thumped I say!! She has added a new high profile debate in Texas on CNN (this last Thursday-21st); John McCain is straw dogged immediately thereafter-and post ingesting a few McCain supporters seeks a rebirth of her run for President- as a candidate who can beat Obama using the ‘daisy chain technique of political logic’ (political constructs + political spectacle + polling support + time and ‘distance’ equals a second chance-this is how it works from a couple of old masters.
(This daisy chain was started by long time Clinton advisor James Carville who first set the bar at Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas as must win for Clinton-followed by Bill Clinton who around debate time {a tie}-says Ohio and Texas wins are the necessary standard. This means that if Hillary wins even one of Texas and Ohio, the rationale can subsequently be made-that oh’ well Hillary’s so close it would be wrong for her to let her followers down-even if she had only won one of approximately 14 of the most recent states).
Although there is no evidence that the Clinton’s were behind the New York Times article, she is from New York and the New York Times had endorsed both she and John McCain some time ago. McCain can afford to go nuclear on Clinton and establish himself as the tougher of the experienced two. His researchers have been waiting to do this, and will now get the go-ahead. Remember, of these three, Hillary Clinton is the only one who lived in the White House for eight years. Obama is an outsider whose core support is relatively well off and educated and who have been easily motivated by the concept of ‘change’. John McCain is an outsider, a maverick who attracts supporters looking for change as well. Hillary Clinton only fits on the scale of those who essentially don’t want change. She’s bucking the trend.
Political and personal indiscretions alleged of McCain dating back to the early nineties, set his table nicely for a counter attack of that era and a revisit of the Clinton nineties and their indiscretions (should any be found). Hillary can legitimately respond with more of Bill-(and save some of her voice)-sending the message to some women that ‘all men are…’ while Barack’s main move will be to say “you can’t teach an old dogs new tricks”.
McCain has to move hard on Clinton to re-establish his pursuit of Obama, and hopes that this spins off to a message of what will happen in the Presidential race against Obama, all the while filling up more seats with anti-liberal Conservatives, with a few ‘still empty’ conservative seats waiting for Evangelist’s approval.
At this point, we still see Barack Obama in the White House.

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