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I Pythagoras, Obama Clinton II
  Feb 11, 2008

This is a random telephone sample of 3,877 ‘Democratic Party supporters’ throughout the continental United States between February 2nd -9th, 2008. This poll features a margin of error of (< 1.22%) 19 times out of 20 @99% confidence. This poll was internally sponsored.
Glen P. Robbins
www.robbinssceresearch.com
*Jim Van Rassel is a member of MRIA Marketing Research and Intelligence Association/L'Association de la recherche et de l'intelligence marketing
-30-

Question #1
Whom do you prefer to be the Democratic nominee to seek the Office of President of the United States of America?
Barack Obama, Senator from Illinois    49.4 %
Hillary Clinton, Senator from New York    45.6 %
Undecided/Don’t Know/Can’t Answer    4.9 %
Commentary
Senator Barack Obama leads Senator Hillary Clinton by (3.8%) in this 2nd ROBBINS poll of Democratic Party ‘supporters’, outside the margin of error for this poll. The Undecided vote remains up for grabs, however (62%) of current Undecided are women.
From this poll, ROBBINS has Obama ahead by (04%) in Ohio which given the margin of error for the sample there (515) makes that contest a dead heat. Hillary Clinton leads Senator Obama in Texas by (05%) with sampling (645) again making these two contests a near dead heat.
The race to be the Democratic nominee for the Presidency may end up a ‘brokered’ convention August 25th to 28th in Denver, Colorado. Super Delegates, those elected and other party officials, not bound by vote outcomes from primaries and caucuses could ultimately decided who the nominee is. There is a distinct possibility that this could happen owing to the fact that Democratic primaries and caucuses for all intents and purposes apportion delegates predicated on proportionality. The race between Senator(s) Obama and Clinton is close in terms of popular vote. This is reflected in the closeness of delegate numbers for each candidate.
Respondents in this ROBBINS SUPER POLL have clearly indicated that they are not in favour of a brokered convention. Of the (26%) of decided respondents who support Super Delegates making the final decision, (62%) are Hillary Clinton supporters. (25%) of the Undecided respondents relating to the major question of candidate support “ACCEPTS” Super Delegates deciding the outcome of the nomination process.
In our January 29, 2008 poll (which included John Edwards), Barack Obama achieved (46.7%) of ‘decided’ support from a sample of 1,118 respondents between January 24-29, 2008. THIS ROBBINS POLL suggests the Illinois Senator has (52%) of ‘decided’ Democratic supporters.
In our previous smaller sample poll (Barack vs. Hillary (I)), Senator Clinton received (48.5%) of ‘decided’ support as between herself and Barack Obama. In this larger sample ROBBINS poll she achieves (48%), a modest decrease. In contrast, Senator Obama received (51.5%) of support from respondents compared to Hillary Clinton. In this ROBBINS SUPER POLL he receives (52%), a modest increase.
In our first poll Senator John Edwards received (9.27%) support while Undecided was (05%). In this ROBBINS SUPER POLL John Edwards is not included while Undecided remains the same (4.9%). Are John Edwards’s supporters trickling toward Senator Barack Obama?
Overall, Senator Obama’s support is continuing to trend upward, while Senator Clinton is confronting a modest decline in support. Will internal changes make the difference for the New York Senator?
Spin:
Robert De Niro may be the best actor of all time. Yes, he might be.
So, Robert De Niro, a great actor would certainly recognize another great actor.
Politicians in order to be successful must communicate their message to ‘the people’.
They ought to be great political actors.
Is that why Robert De Niro decided to support Barack Obama for President of the United States?
I believe the American media do not yet fully understand what is happening. Barack Obama’s candidacy is a big, big deal. He is a million times bigger right this minute, than I ‘told ya’. His growth and maturity over recent weeks, the raw power, is amazing. When he moves into the microphone while giving a speech, and drops his chin and shakes his fist, firmly, but without arrogance, you understand that he knows he’s going to win.
The word phenomenon is overused, thus losing its luster. Barack Obama is the Pearl of Hope, and if this poll tells us anything, likely the next President of the United States. We are witnessing something special. In power politics, real Hope propels the imagination of the people, and thus recalibrates the emphasis of power behind the candidate who stands for this ‘intangible’. In Barack Obama’s case, this may be the first time if fifty years of American politics where Hope was able to supersede institutional organizations as the main ingredient needed to win. DNC leader Howard Dean knows this.
For that reason this contest should not go past Texas for a result.
Hillary Clinton is still in this race. It is a testament to her that she is able to compete with the kind of dynamic created by the Obama campaign. I see Hillary Clinton as more of a Stateswoman.
Secretary of State would be the right position for her. If Obama were to falter, she would be the natural fit for party leadership, but not if this race is ‘brokered’. She might want to call Barbara Streisand, Carl Reiner and (yes) Michael Bloomberg for their opinions.
Any other time, in any other scenario, Hillary Clinton would be the easy winner. She has been a beacon of strength, like a breakwater. But Barack Obama is the sea and he is raging for the coast. He is in motion, while the New York Senator is forced to defend.
There is no positive energy in that. Supporters of the Democratic Party understand this.
Bill Richardson would do well as Vice-President for Barack Obama, or for John McCain.
The showing by Conservatives at CPAC booing John McCain reveals the true nature of these people. They may have clout, but McCain’s future is not with them. Mike Huckabee’s increased totals and popular exposure across the country will fill up his side of the Conservative ledger, making the railbirds President George W. Bush’s problem.
He owes John McCain.

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