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ROBBINS on The US Presidential Recession (re-release originally published Jan 24, 08)
follow the ROBBINS p[rophes}y.  Feb 20, 2008

A random telephone poll of 1,010 U.S. ‘voters’ between January 17-22, 2008. This ROBBINS poll features a margin of error of 3.505% 19 times out of 20 @97% competency/confidence. This poll was internally funded.

Question #1
Which of the following candidates for President of the United States impresses you the most at this juncture in the race for the White House? *
John McCain    24.7 %
Hillary Clinton    20.8 %
Barack Obama    19.7 %
Mitt Romney    16.2 %
John Edwards    9.8 %
Mike Huckabee    8.4 %
I am impressed by all these candidates    5.2 %
I am not impressed by any of these candidates    3.2 %
There are other candidate(s) I prefer    4.2 %
Can’t Say    1.3 %
Question #2
In your opinion is the United States headed for a recession?
Yes    39.82 %
No    58.07 %
Undecided    2.15 %
Question #3
In your opinion will President Bush’s stimulus package work?
Yes    24.5 %
No    75.5 %
Commentary
Observations:
John McCain is leading all candidates in terms of public support. His support is equal to his opponents from both parties in larger ‘metro’ areas (>110,000 pop), but he, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama are doing better than the other candidates in smaller cities and towns (<25,000 pop).
Public opinion in the United States over the economy and specifically whether or not the country is heading for a recession is holding or dipping slightly relative to well respected Zogby polls taken on the same subject in the latter part of 07. {All callers introduced the poll as being conducted by ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) based in Vancouver BC, Canada).
Respondents in larger ‘metro’ areas (herein designated as >110,000 pop) are 12.12% more likely to see the U.S. economy headed for a recession as those respondents in smaller cities (herein depicted as <25,000 pop.)
Although the numbers for George W. Bush’s economic stimulus package appear low, this in our opinion in not entirely based on the current President’s lower approval ratings (est. 35-38%). We believe this question requires more fleshing out than this poll permitted.
Some respondents of the majority who don’t think the U.S. is headed for a recession think that an economic slow-down may be in place but will work out through other measures (lowering interest rates etc.), while others believe that the positive and upbeat nature of the U.S. Presidential election will be sufficient to instill confidence in the economy. Has the significantly high ratings of the U.S. Presidential race distracted Americans from economic fears, or has the momentum of recession fears merely abated for the time being?
Frankly, we simply did not hear the doom and gloom we had expected to hear. The three front runners nationally, Senator(s) McCain, Obama, and Clinton will need to tread carefully as the percentage points which separate voters in large and small cities and towns is worth noting. Has intervention through fiscal announcements such as lower interest rates ‘bought’ sufficient time for further discussion and implementation of other economic measures such as the President’s stimulus package, to abate further serious problems occurring in the U.S. economy, or are other fundamentals such as trade imbalances etc. too pronounced to permit the sense of measured optimism (we are hearing from Americans in this poll) from turning sour?
Respondents in smaller cites and towns are far less likely to believe President George W. Bush’s stimulus package will work. This is significant for a candidate like Mike Huckabee coming out of Florida and looking to Super Duper Tuesday who has success in these regions in the southeast, but less so (relatively speaking) in the central and western parts of the United States, owing to the better branding of names like McCain, Clinton, and Obama at this point.
Spin:
If John McCain wins Florida, (and he probably will if this snapshot of current American political perspectives prevails), will he have enough distance in his lead to make his Presidential future worthy of some reasonable investment? “Can you say Platinum Sir?”
Thereafter, in this years Presidential contest who would dare to select a winner this far away from the prize?
Politics right now during this Presidential year is as good as it gets. (My choice for Presidential Press Secretary is CNN’s Suzanne Mulveaux).
Hillary Clinton gets a real big slice of her America Pie from women coast to coast. This support is serious and solid. Bill Clinton is pissing off a few people, but in this Presidential election very few in America turn off the TV or change the station when Bubba is on. The whole Hillary and Bill (her ‘road agent’) ‘combo’ looked weird initially, but no-one’s complaining. I think the people generally want to hear from everyone who matters. It’s really astonishing. The question is: Did Hillary call a life line in New Hampshire, or was this the plan all along?
(I’ve considered going off my meds). I guess at the end of it, who does Alec Baldwin support? He actually looks like he can fight.
I am Canadian man but I had a whole lot more money in the 90’s than I do now.
Barack really has ignited young America. It’s mind blowing to hear young people on the telephone who can’t wait to cheer Mr. Obama and say his name. I go back to “astonishing”.
If Obama wins in South Carolina he challenges McCain out front. If McCain wins Florida and Hillary wins South Carolina we may be looking at the final two for the whole SHOW.
When Mitt Romney wins a contest and has the camera his numbers shoot up like rockets in a Fourth of July parade. It isn’t my position to tell the former Governor how to spend his money, but sir you already know what I’m talking about. You’re hot, but you’re new and you have to spend the dough, bleed for glory like John McCain, or have the experience like Hillary Clinton to get the grail.
Ain’t that America?
Mitt runs a little shy on the west coast, and he has to think about this ahead of time. How well has he anticipated? They love Mitt on the east coast but what can he do to stop the McCain momentum? Can Mitt co-opt some Kennedy support or arrange with Arnold to help in California, or will the Terminator stay home and play with he kids when the Republican candidates come courting?
Mike Huckabee’s surprise win in Iowa and terrific showing in South Carolina makes him a player. After that huge high, this wonderful gentleman is working for a living, and there’s a lot of Americans who might select another candidate but muse about Mike as well. I think if Mike sticks to who he is, unequivocally, than truly the outcome is ultimately in someone else’s control and that will be to his absolute benefit. President is not off the table yet, however Mike Huckabee has shown himself a little weak on foreign policy, and may want to consider his options relative to VP, as former Senator Fred Thompson likely already has.
John Edwards won the debate on CNN’s Congressional Black Caucus Democratic Debate (CBCDD). Lately, I’ve been thinking he may be gone sooner than later, but Hillary and Barack are working so hard to convince people they aren’t crazy about one another, giving the former Congressman an opportunity to play King (maybe).
If Rudy Giuliani wins Florida, what can I say?
All Democratic candidates singing the praises of Republican John McCain at the (CBCDD) was such a slick move, I am still having trouble getting over it.
The Republicans have a different scenario, but I think reality is setting in with -so long- to Fred Thompson. His shake out of Huckabee’s vote in South Carolina (man I want to live down there-Charleston-sexy), and the resulting dramatic McCain win, makes him a realistic choice for Vice-President. (There is talk of Thompson playing the movie role of former President Lyndon Baines Johnson- who I believe was an underappreciated U.S. President, and agonized greatly over the Viet Nam war).
This is the year; the Vice-Presidential candidate from either party must be someone currently in the race.
With the level of excitement happening this election year, the writer’s strike and resulting mega attention to politics in the U.S., why would anyone squander the return on investment from all the press coverage, particularly when most of the Democratic supporters are delighted with the Clinton Obama ticket no matter how it shakes out. Could the President marry the Vice-President? It’s just a thought.
The American undecided voter has realized how to get more political bang for her/his buck. Simply call yourself an Independent and let the bidding begin.
CNN is going to make a heap of a lot of money on advertising this year. The politic experts on the show are sensational. I’m not kissing up; this stuff is so good I’m addicted.
I watch Fox and PBS Jim Lehrer, The Mclaughlin Group, and read as much as I can. A lot of demographic research. Studies where you can find, religious ones, age, migration intra, and smart calls. Find out who lives in the cities and towns you are calling. Blow enough of a breeze and you might get a good picture.
Is it just me or have a lot of very well educated South American immigrants come to the U.S. in the last decade? Where are all the PhD’s from the southern hemisphere?
Speaking of a good picture. I believe I have one. The low numbers for President George W. Bush’s plan are not that way because America is scoffing at his stimulus package. Part of the reason for these low numbers exists because a majority of Americans do not believe they are headed for a recession. Another part of the reason is the fact that American’s are optimistic about the future of their country. They aren’t doing hand stands, but they aren’t panicking. The Presidential election is doing a lot to cement this positive attitude.
The only segment of the population which runs counter to this are the majority of female supporters of New York Senator Hillary Clinton who aren’t negative, but they run between Doubting Thomas and cautious.
A lot of single mother’s have learned the hard way.
I can tell you in two decades many Americans will speak highly of President George W. Bush. You may not see it, but I do.
Glen P. Robbins
*Jim Van Rassel is a member of MRIA Marketing Research and Intelligence Association/L'Association de la recherche et de l'intelligence marketing

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