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Metro Vancouver/BC ROBBINS 'Biggy' poll of British Columbians
Anyone But Campbell-Let's get moving  Jun 04, 2007

A random telephone sample of 1,100 British Columbians between May 22 and June 2, 2007. This poll features a margin of error of 2.12%, 19 times out of 20 @99% competency/confidence. This poll was sponsored by ROBBINS ASK, ROBBINS MediaWorks and Jim Van Rassel of New Trend Optical (604) 328-5398

Question #1
For which BC political party did you vote in the last provincial general election?
BC NDP    39 %
BC Liberals    45 %
BC Green    14 %
Other    03 %
Question #2
If a provincial election were held tomorrow, for which party would you caste your ballot?
BC NDP    40.5 %
BC Liberal    39 %
BC Green    11 %
Democratic Reform Party    3.5 %
BC Conservative Party    3.0 %
Marijuana Party    3.0 %
Question #3
How do you rate the current job performance of the BC Liberal government?
Good    21 %
Fair    31 %
Poor    49 %
Question #4
Are you more or less inclined to vote for an independent candidate who is well known in the community, over a candidate for one of the two main parties, namely the BC NDP or BC Liberals?
More    32 %
Less    19 %
Can't Answer/I don't Know    49 %
Commentary
BC Liberal support has dropped 13-14% since the last general provincial election.
BC NDP support has increased slightly or is statistically about the same as it was in the last provincial election.
BC Green support is down about 14% based on numbers in question #'s 1 and 2.
Democratic Reform Party (Q#3) takes very residually from "Green" and "Other" (Q#1), slightly more from BC NDP, and receives nearly three-quarters of its modest support from BC Liberals.
BC Conservative takes predominantly from BC Liberals, while Marijuana Party takes from Green and BC NDP.
BC NDP takes significantly more from BC Liberals (Q#1) than the BC Liberals take from it.
Nearly one half of BC Liberal support believes the governing rates performance as "Fair".
A near solid one half of respondents in this ROBBINS poll rate the BC Liberal Party performance as "Poor".
Comments on Observations:
This ROBBINS poll strongly suggests the BC Liberals had better reconsider their political direction. If they do not, they are headed for problems. Their leader and his Cabinet Ministers are not charismatic, so the liklihood of crawling out of a deep political hole is doubtful, particularly if second tier players like DR. BC and BC Conservatives come out and play for real.
The BC Green holds its position since the last provincial election, but has no leader. Any losses by the Greens could be gains for the Marijuana Party or more likely the BC NDP as the BC Liberals are NOT taking Green support.
The idea that Gordon Campbell's Green Plan has caught the attention of Green supporters at this point in time is nonsense.
The BC NDP have done little to attract Green voters to its fold, and with no Green leader one would have expected the BC NDP to have accomplished more here. It appears that the Campbell Liberals might have succeeded in keeping Greens from moving to the BC NDP.
There are holes beginning to show in the centre right side of the BC Liberal Party particularly north of Hope BC where DRBC and the BC Conservatives are grinding away at BC Liberal support based I suspect on name label support plus growing disillusionment in the integrity of the BC Liberal government.
The BC Liberals are revealing terrible cracks on Vancouver Island where they are as much as 15% behind the BC NDP in some cases, and in the GVRD suburbs like Burnaby and Surrey where they are down as much as 8-10%.
The Fraser Valley Region is a real surprise as BC NDP totals in the high 30's percentile in some cases. This is surely not a good sign for the BC Liberals.
Support for the BC Liberal Party is also consistently under 50% in the Okanagan, where its support has always been very high.
It appears that the continued banter from the BC Liberal government that the economy is booming, and that 'they' the BC Liberals are responsible for it, is beginning to wear thin on British Columbians.
House values are up if you are one of the lucky ones who are in the 'club', however monthly bills have taken a sharp rise owing to gas prices, and the increase in the loonie could affect interest rates on home mortgages which coupled with softer demand, could crack the tenous support which remains for the BC Liberals as the economic gurus they have been touting themselves as.
There are other British Columbians who still buy into the strong provincial economic performance who are now concerned with social spending, particularly health, education, and post secondary education who are beginning to look at the BC NDP more closely. The question has become: 'If the economy is so good, perhaps its time to support a party we know will take care of health, education and the environment.
The BC NDP needs to provide a comprehensive strategy for the environment beyond fish farms NOW, rather than wait until the year before the 2009 fixed election, as there are a number of voters who are starting to realize that perhaps the two party system of BC NDP and BC Liberals isn't enough.
The recent pay raise debacle underscores this.
In addition, there appears to be a significant market for independent candidates as we look to the coming election just off in the distance. ROBBINS foresees potential upsets by Independents or in the alternative a significant impact on voting outcomes relative to swing voters particularly, who are starting to look more at local issues as they stay at home to preserve and conserve on the high cost of gasoline.
BC Liberals are being hurt by voter suspicion that they are not acting in their best interests, have secret agendas, or generally lack honesty and integrity.
Premier Campbell's performance is not inspiring British Columbians who see him as more uptight and disconnected from the average person.
The BC NDP strategy of underperforming to some extent, is obviously a strategy to keep Campbell afloat until the weeks and months leading up to 2009 where they will make their run for a majority government. A refreshed BC Liberal Party with a new leader is threatening to the BC NDP, who insiders report have "no doubt" they will defeat the BC Liberals.
The BC Liberals have lost some public confidence on social issues particularly health. They are also losing confidence on their ability to manage Olympic costs, or at least properly disclose all of the costs to the public in a manner which is satisfactory.
There is little confidence that the BC Liberals understand what is required on the environmental file. The party is seen to be "faking it".
The BC NDP is doing a better job of exposing weaknesses the BC Liberals are having with small businesses, the backbone of the provincial economy.
Gordon Campbell is seen as big business friendly ONLY, which is detrimentally impacting on his ability to sell private public partnerships, as provincial voters are beginning to see the Premier as someone willing to "sell off assets owned by British Columbians without their consent".
The BC Rail criminal trial is hurting public confidence, and the recent BC Lottery scandal and an ineffective response by Solicitor General John Les is creating an awful lot of buzz in the communities that both the government and the special interests, AND the so-called independents who provide 'reports' are all drinking from the same trough and thus not credible. BC politicians should look more to the States who rely much less on cirriculum vitae's. The so-called independent pay wage mess has moms and dads at ball games shaking their heads, and permits easy banter about the corrupt nature of politics in the province. Once this starts, it is a slippery slope to low confidence levels. If the BC Liberals aren't getting a sense of this, and cannot see the potential disasters looming than there is a real possibility the party could implode within a year,
The "them" and "us" factor is becoming a clear divide which will ultimately help those independents or other second tier parties who want to make inroads with voters in the province. Politics has become so unremarkable in this province that I am certain a person could dress up as a cowboy, talk with a Texas drawl and fascinate more potential voters than Gordon Campbell ever could. Politics will also be politics, but it is also entertainment news, and if the only thing that you have which is compelling for the voter is scandal, there really is a credibility problem.
Glen P. Robbins
(604) 942-3757

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