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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics May 14, 2007
  May 14, 2007

A random sample of 1,025 Canadians between May 8th-13th, 2007. These respondents have been qualified as “voters“. This poll considers underlying qualification of ‘level of support’ for current political parties by asking about the level of support through a numerical qualification. Although numbers WERE NOT adjusted, the levels of support based on a 5 point minimum, 10 point maximum and rounded to one half points (i.e. 7,7.5,8,8.5 etc.), for each party are as follows: Conservative (8.5), Liberals (7.5), NDP (8.0), Green (8.0). Respondents were gathered as follows: BC (300), Alta (100), Saskatchewan (50), Manitoba (50), Ontario (300), Quebec (120), Atlantic Provinces (105) Numerical qualification was not provided for the Bloc so these amounts were not contemplated as a question per se but instead were used to assessed the underlying ‘support’ of the ‘support’ for each party, and the veracity of the polling outcome, particularly as this relates to commentary/conclusions. This poll features a margin of error of 2.35%, 19 times out of 20 @99% competency. This poll was paid for by Glen P. Robbins and Associates and ROBBINS MediaWorks, and Jim Van Rassel of New Trend Optical (604) 942-9300, (604) 328-5398.

Question #1
For which leader and party did you vote in the last general federal election in 2006?
Paul Martin and Liberal    32.7 %
Jack Layton and New Democrat    16.5 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative    35.2 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois    9.4 %
Jim Harris and Green    4.8 %
Question #2
If a federal election were held tomorrow for which leader and party would you caste your ballot?
Stephane Dion and Liberal    29.73 %
Jack Layton and New Democrat    21.29 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative    38.50 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois    6.43 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party    5.20 %
Commentary
The Bloc Quebecois support has dropped significantly since the most recent general federal election in late January of 2006.
Stephane Dion has lost (9.0%) of his party’s support, while Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party has increased support by (9.0%), and The Green Party of Canada has increased support by nearly (8.5%).
Jack Layton and the New Democratic Party are on a tear with support increase of nearly (33%) since January 2006.
The Conservatives do their best among voters aged 46-60 with (43%) of support and receive their lowest support from voters aged 18-30 with (30%) of support. Liberals are supported most by voters over 60 with (34%) and least with voters 18-30 at (22%). NDP has its largest support from voters aged 18-30 with (27%), and least support from voters over 60 with (13%). However the NDP is having some noticeable success with voters in the 31-60 age group (avg. 18.5%). The Green Party received most of its support from younger voters aged 18-30 with (16%), and least support from voters over 60 at (04%).
Stephane Dion’s Liberal Party attracts only (26%) of support among voters aged 31-45.
The New Democratic Party has increased its national support overall by (3.0%) based on ‘tripling’ its previous support in Quebec and a modest (5.0%) increase in Ontario. The Conservative Party has increased its support from January 2006 in Quebec by (25%), and in Ontario by (15%), while the federal Liberal Party under Stephane Dion has lost (15%) voter support in Ontario and made virtually no gains in Quebec. Green support has nearly doubled in Quebec and Ontario but lags behind previous totals in British Columbia.
The Conservative Party of Canada has (=>40%) in every province in the country save for Ontario (39%) and Quebec (30%), while the Liberal Party of Canada does not achieve 40% in any province but remains close in the Atlantic Provinces with (39%).
Based on these ROBBINS numbers a seat count looks something like this: Conservatives (154), NDP (39), Bloc (27) and Liberal (86).
Commentary:
These ROBBINS numbers have very different implications for political parties when compared to mainstream polls. The latter reflect a virtual tie between Conservatives and Liberals, while this ROBBINS poll reveals that the NDP may be closer to the federal Liberals in terms of public support than the Conservative Party of Canada is.
The Liberals and Greens made a fatal mistake by co-opting support from one another. The Liberals by getting into ‘bed’ with a fledgling party which many potential voters are now abandoning owing to poor messaging, and Greens who have made some very bad political decisions beginning with Elizabeth May’s early decision to run against Nova Scotia ‘homeboy‘, Conservative Peter McKay, and other comments about political ‘deals’ when the party has no elected MP’s in the House of Commons.
Our tapes of Stephane Dion’s ‘public’ speeches reveal a leader who is not getting his message out to voters, particularly in the West. Stephane Dion is a nice man, but the Liberals made a huge mistake selecting him leader and are pulling out all the IOU’s in an attempt to convince Conservative leader Stephen Harper to not call an election. So far, the bluff for some inexplicable reason appears to be working. In our opinion Dion needs a ‘stunner’ to achieve the kind of proximity the mainstream pollsters are currently subsidizing him with.
Those voters unwilling to support Stephen Harper, doubtful of Stephane Dion, who cannot fathom voting for Elizabeth May have joined Jack Layton’s Team, as there appears to be more cohesiveness and momentum among the NDP.
“How can I vote for a party that claims to love the environment, but offers no real solutions other than Kyoto which I don‘t understand,, or for a women who gives away her support to that same party, and who spends more time worrying about election strategy?” I can’t, it’s as simple as that!
Stephen Harper’s Conservative’s don’t appear to be in any hurry for a federal vote which according to this poll would exploit the obvious weaknesses of their main rival the Liberals, and their political competition in Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois. With Pauline Marois the most obvious choice to take over the helm of the desperate Parti Quebecois in Quebec politics and fill the existing PQ vacuum and Gilles Duceppe appearing fickle in his attempt to help organize both the provincial and federal separatist parties, the Conservatives could easily miss out on their ability to capitalize on a weakened sovereignty movement, and sagging Liberal fortunes.
Eventually, if the mainstream press can continue to stall off the Harper government and give the Liberal Party time to recover, the odds are that the Conservatives will actually make a mistake of some bona fide political significance, which the mainstream press will sharply illuminate until 2008 arrives, when calling an election (with a fixed one around the corner in 2009) will become even more difficult.

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