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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics February 21, 2007
  Feb 21, 2007

Methodology-A random telephone sample of 1,000 respondents throughout Canada between February 15-20, 2007 including Quebec (200) {+- 7.5%}; Ontario (300) {+-6.5%}; Manitoba (40) {NA}; Saskatchewan (40) {NA}; Alberta (100) {NA}; Atlantic Provinces (100) {NA}; British Columbia (220) {7%}. Overall this poll has a margin of error of 3.25%, 19 times out of 20 @97% competency/confidence. This poll was sponsored by Glen P. Robbins and Associates; ROBBINS Media Works; and Jim Van Rassel, owner New Trend Optical (604) 942-9300.

Question #1
In your opinion which of the following is the greatest threat to Alberta’s oil production?
the Conservatives Clean Air Act and public awareness of global warming    18 %
terrorist threats against Canadian oil being sold to the United States-    41 %
changes in types of energy production away from fossil fuels    16 %
All of the Above    22 %
None of the Above    04 %
Question #2
The federal Liberals oppose the Conservatives desire to change criminal sentencing in Canada and specifically mandatory minimum terms for repeat convicted offenders. In your opinion are mandatory minimums sentences for repeat convicted offenders necessary?
Yes    74 %
No    26 %
Unsure/Undecided    02 %
Question #3
-With changes expected to environmental sustainability laws in Canada, changes will also be anticipated in intra provincial trade laws which heretofore have been mostly related to professional certification and the like. In your opinion if newspapers are recycled in one province to say 36%, and recycled in a neighbouring province to 15%, which standard in your opinion ought to apply?
the higher standard of newspaper recycling    19 %
the lower standard of newspaper recycling    08 %
the standard ought to be somewhere in the middle    26 %
there should be a national standard    47 %
Unsure/Undecided    07 %
Question #4
The federal Liberals do not want to renew a stringent anti-terrorist bill currently on the books since 911. The Conservatives want to renew it. Who do you support on this question alone?
Conservatives    82 %
Liberals    18 %
Unsure/Undecided    04 %
Question #5
In a provincial Human Rights claim two lawyers oversee significant and substantive changes in their client’s complaints, affidavits, and testimony which amount to perjury. In your opinion if lawyers are found to have known their clients lied under oath should they be:
disbarred from the practice of law    35 %
prosecuted as criminals    21 %
reprimanded/suspended    20 %
none of the above    18 %
Question #6
The Liberal Opposition has accused the Conservative government of pursuing the appointment of new conservative oriented judges for our Supreme/Superior courts. In your opinion will this help or hurt the judicial system?
Help    58 %
Hurt    29 %
Don't Know    13 %
Question #7
How would you rate your level of confidence in Canada’s public health care system?
Very Confident    08 %
Confident    33 %
A lack of confidence    36 %
Not confident at all    23 %
Question #8
In a hypothetical situation a private company in the United Kingdom sells 50 million dollars of Lottery tickets to Canadian citizens most of whom are elderly or pensioners. Canada’s laws do not permit lottery sales proceeds to be used for anything other than charity. In your opinion should Canadian lawmakers permit this UK company to sell lottery tickets to Canadians from the United Kingdom?
Yes    07 %
No    93 %
Question #9
In your opinion, should the majority of annual proceeds from the sale of Canadian Lottery tickets be designated to the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic fund rather than to regional athletics and community organizations?
Yes    28 %
No    72 %
Unsure/Undecided    03 %
Question #10
In your opinion is a Bill (law) passed before your provincial or federal parliament worthwhile, if it does not contain any plan of action or resources to support its implementation?
Yes    27 %
No    73 %
Question #11
If an election were held tomorrow for which leader and political party would you caste your ballot?
Stephane Dion and federal Liberal party    28 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative party    41 %
Elizabeth May and Green party    08 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois    08 %
Jack Layton and New Democratic party    14 %
Commentary
One-half of respondents in Questions #1 are of the opinion that terrorist’s threats against Canadian oil being sold to the United States is the greatest threat to Alberta’s oil production.
Any laws relating to environmental sustainability should be predicated on a national standard and with a view to averaging differences between provinces according to respondents.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents are of the opinion that laws passed should include provisions for a plan of action and resources to support that plan.
Canadians overwhelmingly want mandatory minimum sentences for repeat criminals.
A massive majority of Canadians want an anti-terrorist Bill first implemented by the Chrétien Liberals to be renewed by the current Conservative government.
A majority of Canadians are of the opinion that lawyers and Officers of the Court should be held accountable for their actions, and should not be treated differently if they break the Rules of Conduct or the law.
A clear majority of Canadians support the increase of Conservative Judges at all levels of court.
Only a handful of respondents support the sale of Lottery tickets to Canadians by telemarketers in the United Kingdom. This handful did indicate that regulation or financial information should be obtained prior to sale.
A minority of respondents across Canada support the use of Canada Lottery proceeds for use by Olympic Games held in Canada.
Canada’s public health care system is having a crisis of confidence with a majority of Canadians.
Canadians have renewed fears for public safety and for natural resources in particular oil from Alberta which is being sold to the United States. These fears have been exacerbated by a failure of Parliament to renew an anti-terrorist Bill. Federal Liberal leader Stephane Dion refused to renew the Bill, and a huge majority of Canadians do not support his position. {Speculation at press time reveals a ‘Liberal dominated Senate’ Report due out tomorrow will be contrary to Mr. Dion’s stated position}.
The Opposition parties in the House of Commons damaged their credibility by forcing a vote on Kyoto which was without substance. The overwhelming majority of Canadians, particularly those outside of Quebec are not very receptive to ‘symbolic’ votes. This Canada is a much more serious and somber group who want results, not posturing from elected public servants.
Canadians are more concerned right now with public safety which is more important to them then the environment is. Kyoto is doomed because it is an International Accord, and Canadians are currently feeling more protectionist (not isolationist) with regards to national security. Lawyers and the legal system in Canada are seen as more of a threat to collective personal security then as a protection to it. This poll is an unequivocal signal that Canadians are changing in priorities putting national importance ahead of individual rights. Mr. Harper needs to gingerly balance this sense of Canadian nationalism with the fact that Canadians will turn quickly if rights are not reasonably upheld.
United Kingdom telemarketers are not actually selling tickets to Canadians. However, a Vancouver City company is selling tens of millions of dollars to United Kingdom residents, many (possibly most) of whom are old age pensioners. Politicians in the United Kingdom are currently trying to deal with this awful crime against the elderly while Liberals Hedy Fry (federal) and Lorne Mayencourt (BC Liberals) permit it to continue because the firm in question donates to the provincial Liberal party in BC. Can you imagine the complaints if this were happening to our senior citizens? How much damage is being done to Canadian/British relations all so that a few Canadians can benefit from ‘unbridled capitalism’/corruption.
Canada’s public health care system is a mess. Only (03%) of British Columbians are “very confident” in their public health care system, while (11%) of respondents in Quebec are “very confident”. (34%) of BC respondents are “not confident at all” in their public health care system, while one out of four respondents in Ontario are not confident at all. When Canadians are feeling ‘nationalistic’ confidence in our historical institutions such as the Canada Health Act is an important part of that comfort.
The federal Conservative party has (32%) support in Quebec, (42%) support in Ontario, and (41%) support in British Columbia. Barring unforeseen circumstances they are clear to win a majority government if an election is called soon. The sentiment of Canadians currently is that Stephen Harper is the model citizen leader, a champion of the middle class. He is in the most enviable of all positions that when overly criticized (or criticized at all) he goes higher in the polls. His formula for success is simple. Manage the nations’ business, don’t micro-manage the nations’ people. This is a big country and there is room for everyone, everyone that is who sees Canada first. Play Canada or go home.
The country is turning ‘old-school’ and feeling very comfortable with this. When you speak to Canadians from coast to coast, the people may be different but the differences stop there. The tone throughout the nation is similar. This Canada first coalescence is not anywhere near xenophobic, however it is stoic. Canadians want their feet on the ground, to know where they stand, and to know what direction the government wants to take. Respondents in Quebec overall answered questions in this poll, in a ‘similar manner’ to respondents from all other regions. Quiet the hyperbole, banish the ‘noise’ and get down to business.
The federal Liberals have stalled and are now falling. (27%) in British Columbia, (31%) in Ontario, and (27%) in Quebec reveal dismal prospects for the Liberal party in the short to mid term.
Jack Layton and the federal New Democrats have found some of their footing, and a recent (simple but effective) Flag Day proposal tapped into the Canadian consciousness (and need for a winter break). These abysmal numbers on public health care ought to provide Jack Layton et al with a chance to really pound away at a Liberal party in absolute crisis, and to ask Stephen Harper what he intends to do about wait times.
The Bloc Quebecois Party has seen better days. Depending on how the PQ does in the Quebec provincial election may have some bearing on how well the BQ does if a federal general election is called. However Stephen Harper is encroaching on rural ridings in that Province with mid 30% support, and is lighting up Quebec City with recent announcements and a very cooperative and positive relationship with current (and soon to be re-elected) Liberal Premier Jean Charest. Montreal is moving but more slowly.
Conservative support is moving upward more quickly then is evident in other national polls according to this ROBBINS poll. It is our impression that public support is moving upward toward 42-43% with no apparent pressure against it. Liberal support could fall to 25% as there is either evident pressure against the party/leader or in the alternative a kind of ambivalence. The question before the Prime Minister is this: does he take the majority government in his hand, or he does press on for 200 seats?
Deal or no deal?
The New Democrats have not been great of late but leader Jack Layton got a Flag Day break. Public health care is an issue, and with a slow rising in public sentiment toward greater national security, Mr. Layton can mirror Prime Minister Harper who has dutiful put the flag and national interests in front of his own. Jack Layton should be less inclined to blame Bush in Iraq relative to Afghanistan, and would be better served speaking to the need for Canada to ensure that we do not become the ‘most favoured nation of oil exports to the United States’. Properly implemented he could see (20%) if Stephane Dion remains in a coma for much longer.
A rise in national interest and a hint of anti-immigrant sentiment is creeping in across the country {contrary to published reports from other pollsters} particularly in Quebec. This has created a truly national interest, which has reduced the Bloc’s influence. This sense of national security is not one of hysteria, but has been fueled in part by recognition by all Canadians of the finite nature of natural resources {of which Canada and Russia have the most}, the perilous nature of security in the world, and oddly that with the reduction of U.S. President George Bush’s power, that perhaps the world (and Canada) will become less safe, not more. Anyone else but Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc would be in greater trouble. In fact, it is precisely the reduction of President Bush’s power which is fueling Mr. Harper’s ascent in this public opinion poll. The Prime Minister looks like John F. Kennedy, acts like a moderate Conservative, or (as I mused last year), as a Conservative Democrat, is strong when he needs to be, and conciliatory when necessary. Canadians are asking out loud: what else should we expect? “This man is a competent leader.”
It is difficult to know if Elizabeth May’s voice is going to be heard with the public interest leaning more toward Canadian security, law and order, and away from so-called ‘Liberal values’. {The Liberals have not even noticed this obvious change in public mood, owing in part to a sort of conceit}. To be sure the Green presence has shrunk in Quebec and retains only modest increases from last year in Ontario. The Greens would be more prudent to heed these polling results, accept them as more likely and not be flattered by the vague accounting methods of other mainstream pollsters. They understand environmental issues and can feel a sense of accomplishment that Canadians are paying attention, now they need to flesh out policy on other initiatives such as health and the economy.
We don’t believe any party can hold the Harper Conservatives back (at this point), so short term strategy for the Greens would be to take from the New Democrats and Liberals with an election strategy to include the Conservatives down the road. Challenging Gilles Duceppe on Made in Canada patriotism now that this ‘policy apparel is in vogue’ will benefit the Greens as well. Canadians are generally happy right now. Why mess with success? This is no longer a response to Liberals being a longtime in office, the Liberals will probably spend a lot more time in office some time in the distant future, but for now, the Canadian public is Conservative blue. Will many more get on board?

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