Robbins SCE Research
Home| British Columbia Polls| Canada Polls| US & the World Polls| Contact| Register| Search| Donate
Vancouver civic election-looks to close to call
  Nov 15, 2005

A digit dialing of 245 respondents in the City of Vancouver between November 8-10, 2005. This survey features a margin of error of 4.95%, 18 times out of 20 @98% competency.

Question #1
News reports confirm that Mayoral candidate Sam Sullivan gave an acquaintance money to support her drug habit ‘in the hopes of better understanding her addiction’. Outgoing Vancouver Mayor Larry Campbell says, “This makes Sam Sullivan unfit to be Mayor.” Whose position do you support on this?
Larry Campbell’s    44 %
Sam Sullivan’s    37 %
Neither    19 %
Question #2
NPA Mayoral candidate Sam Sullivan believes the Vancouver Police Department, which takes 25% of the city’s total budget, should find ways to “make city funding go further” while Cope city councillor Tim Louis calls the VPD “a rogue police force”. Yet, COPE dominated city council passed a motion for funding for 50 new police officers this year and 50 more next year. In your opinion which statement best reflects your opinion on this matter?
The Vancouver Police Force should find ways to make funding go further    54 %
The Vancouver Police Department needs more police officers    46 %
Question #3
In your opinion which of the following statements best explains why outgoing Mayor Larry Campbell is against NPA Mayoral candidate Sam Sullivan for Mayor?
Larry Campbell is a ‘federal Liberal’ and doesn’t want conservative Sam Sullivan to win the Mayor’s chair    16 %
Larry Campbell is loyal to his friend and colleague Jim Green who he believes would be the best Mayor    15 %
Larry Campbell is just looking out for the best interests of the city-    33 %
Larry Campbell is worried that Sam Sullivan might win    36 %
Question #4
Do you prefer to elect a Vancouver School Board which:
Supports smaller class sizes and better considers class composition    50 %
Looks at ways to promote a good education and fiscal efficiency    48 %
Undecided    02 %
Question #5
Do you most support a Vancouver city council which is:
NDP like’ in composition and approach to city politics    51 %
BC Liberal like’ in composition and approach to city politics    46 %
Neither    03 %
Question #6
Who do you most support for Mayor at this time?
Vision Vancouver candidate Jim Green    49.5 %
NPA candidate Sam Sullivan    51 %
Commentary
Although a majority of respondents support outgoing Vancouver Mayor Larry Campbell’s position that NPA Mayoral candidate Sam Sullivan is “unfit to be Mayor” over his providing money to a drug addicted person, some respondents who supported this choice, also voiced the opinion that “they don’t know if they would go so far as to say he (Sam Sullivan) was unfit… it was probably an unwise choice.”
A majority of respondents who are under 45 years of age (57%) support choice (a) in Question #2 that the Vancouver Police Department should make funds go further, while (48%) of respondents over the age of 45 also support this choice.
Respondents who selected choice (a) in Question #3, not surprisingly were Sam Sullivan and NOT Jim Green or Larry Campbell supporters. The majority of these respondents were over the age of 45. Respondents who selected choice (c) in Question #3 were derived from both age groups in this poll. A majority of respondents who selected choice (d) in Question #3 were under the age of 45. A relatively high percentage of respondents who selected (b) in Question #3 believe the Vancouver Police Department should make “funds go further” in Question #2.
Over (42%) of respondents under the age of 45 want a Vancouver School Board that promotes a good education and fiscal efficiency while (54%) of those over the age of 45 select that same choice (b) in Question #4. A similar number from each age group supported a “‘BC Liberal like’ composition and approach to city politics.”
(27%) of total respondents (who are also under age 45) support Sam Sullivan for Mayor. (29.5%) of total respondents (who are also under age 45) support Jim Green for Mayor. (24%) of total respondents (who are also over age 45) support Sam Sullivan for Mayor while (20%) of total respondents (who are also over age 45) support Jim Green for Mayor.
Insight-It is uncertain whether or not outgoing Mayor Larry Campbell is helping, hurting, or having no affect on the outcome of the Vancouver Mayoral race. NPA candidate Sam Sullivan has not had an endorsement from Christy Clark, but ROBBINS has been told that the former challenger in the NPA race did not actually close the deal on her Vancouver home, and may not want this public during the final days of the election race.
The number of respondents under age 45 who were inclined to fiscal responsibility was higher than we expected. In Question #2 this might be explained by Tim Louis’s statement that the Vancouver Police Department were a ‘rogue force’. However a reasonably high number of respondents who were over the age of 45 also selected this choice, which suggests that using the VPD to underscore crime policy, at least in terms of how we framed the perspective, may not be an advantage in this civic election.
Question #3 responses suggests to us that although Larry Campbell is still well liked voters may not follow his advice, simply because he isn’t running in this election. If ‘NDP like’ composition for city council is a direct translation to COPE than this survey might reasonably suggest that a COPE majority on city council is to be expected. If the logic of the ‘labeling’ follows, this survey suggests that city council races may be closer than expected.
This survey makes it abundantly clear how close the race for Vancouver Mayor is. NPA candidate Sam Sullivan has excellent numbers in both age groups. If COPE candidates for city council do not come out and endorse Vision Vancouver candidate Jim Green he may not win.

Home| British Columbia Polls| Canada Polls| US and the World Polls| Contact| Register| Search| Site Map
Copyright Robbins SCE Research Inc. ©2017