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Quebec is going, going, gone from Canada
  Jun 19, 2005

This is a random telephone survey sample of 980 respondents conducted from three major cities in Canada between June 12 and 19, 2005. The margin of error is (2.5% to 4.75%), 18 times out of 20 @96% competency.

Question #1
If an election were held tomorrow for which federal leader and party would you cast your vote?
Jack Layton and NDP    21.5 %
Paul Martin and Liberal    31 %
Stephen Harper and Conservatives    30 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois    14 %
Other    3.5 %
Question #2
In your opinion, generally speaking, are provincial and municipal politicians ethical?
Yes    57 %
No    47.5 %
Question #3
In your opinion, generally speaking, are federal politicians ethical?
Yes    43 %
No    57 %
Question #4
In your opinion will Quebec attempt to separate or seek sovereignty association from Canada within the next two to three years?
Yes    61 %
No    39 %
Question #5
In your opinion will Quebec attempt to separate or seek sovereignty association from Canada within the next two to three years?
Very Likely    32 %
Likely    26.5 %
Unlikely    25 %
Very Unlikely    16.5 %
Commentary
Liberals are up (19%), to (31% cross-country) while the NDP is up (7.5%) from our last federal poll. Conservatives are down (17%) to (30% cross-country) and the Bloc Quebecois is down (6.5%) to (14%).
The Conservatives have their highest support in Alberta (59%) and lowest in Quebec (13%). The Liberals have their highest support in Ontario (44%) and their lowest in Quebec (16%). The NDP party has its highest support in Manitoba (35%) and BC (33%), and its lowest in Quebec (11%).
Between them the federal Conservatives, federal Liberals, and federal NDP ‘waste’ nearly (10.5%) of aggregate national support in Quebec as none of these parties reflect sufficient public support in that province to earn many, if any seats. If national public support is related to seats and back again to public ‘net’ national support after factoring out the support in Quebec, the Conservatives can be depicted at (26.5%), the Liberals at (27%), and the NDP at (18.5%). This more ‘realistic statistical depiction’ of national support reveals that with no strong federalist party currently represented in Parliament the conditions are right for Quebec to seriously consider further distinct negotiations with Canada.
Manitoba respondents have the highest number of respondents of the opinion that provincial and municipal politicians are ethical (63%), followed by Alberta (61%). Quebec has the lowest number (41%) followed by British Columbia (47%).
Ontario has the highest number of respondents who are of the opinion that federal politicians are ethical (49%), followed by Manitoba (47%). Quebec and Saskatchewan have the lowest opinion (31%), followed by Alberta (36%).
Quebec has the highest percentage of respondents who are of the opinion that Quebec will attempt separation or sovereignty association (72%) followed by British Columbia (62%). Ontario is the lowest (59%) followed by Manitoba (56%).
If Quebec does seek separation or sovereignty association, Quebecois respondents have the highest number of respondents of the opinion that they will be successful (75%), followed by Saskatchewan (67%). Respondents in Manitoba are least likely to anticipate success (49%) followed by Ontario (52%).

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