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Federal Conservatives increase position in Quebec, Liberals fading!
  May 16, 2005

A digit dialing survey of 1,450 Canadians throughout all ten provinces between May 12 and 16th 2005. This survey features a margin of error of 2.75%, 19 times out of 20 @98% competency. “Paid for by Canadians doing business in the U.S.A.”

Question #1
If and when a House of Commons vote is held on the merits of the joint federal Liberal Party-NDP Party budget how would you like your Member of Parliament to vote?
For the budget    53 %
Against the budget    47 %
Question #2
If a budget vote is held and subsequently passes, and a summer election is not called, should Prime Minister keep his promise to hold an election 30 days after the Gomry report is made public or in the late fall-winter of 2005 at the latest?
Yes    68 %
No    32 %
Question #3
If a budget vote is held and subsequently fails and a summer election results for which party leader and party are you most likely to vote at this point in time?
Jack Layton and New Democratic Party    20 %
Paul Martin and Liberal Party    27 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party    35 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois    13 %
Jim Harris and Green Party    06 %
Commentary
A slight majority of Canadians are in favour of the budget vote passing. Respondents are becoming more and more resistant to increased taxes at the Municipal Level where property taxes and the cost of living, particularly in Canadian cities continue to rise. If a spike in property taxes occurs, after a decade of less disposable income, and tax surpluses held up in EU accounts, Canadians according to this survey will not be pleased. A majority of respondents in BC, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes support the budget deal. Only those respondents in Alberta and Saskatchewan do not. Would Canadians prefer to experience personal tax relief or take the benefit of social programs provided for in the joint federal Liberal-NDP budget?
The most glaring contradiction in this survey occurs in Quebec where nearly 57% support the budget but less than 20% support either of the two parties responsible for the budget passing. It appears that the Quebecois can take or leave precisely when they will kick out the governing Liberals. On this account it appears that the federal Liberals now run the risk of not being a truly national party if the situation in this survey holds. With this in mind will some members of the Bloc Quebecois forget to show up for the budget vote in order to satisfy their constituents claims to take the money offered by the Liberal-NDP budget and defer a change in government until after the transfer of the largesse? Conversely, if a budget vote passes in the House of Commons will this mollify Quebec voters sufficiently to give Paul Martin another shot at winning a minority government later in the year?
This survey also reveals another political story in Quebec. There is no doubt that the Bloc Quebecois is in command with well over (50%) support, but this survey reflects the Conservatives at nearly (20%) of popular support with slightly higher support in some rural regions and unquestionably growing support in the City of Montreal. (The Conservative Party of Canada may be reaping the rewards of holding their convention in Montreal).
This survey also reflects growing Conservative support in the City of Toronto but no gains in the City of Vancouver.
This survey suggests that Bay Street and financial districts in Montreal are extremely concerned about the size of the budget potentially being deployed by a Liberal-NDP coalition. (Howe Street in Vancouver is no longer a significant player on the national scene). With our neighbours south of the border in a potential crisis with corporate pensions for workers putting Industry giants like General Motors at risk of bankruptcy, stockbrokers and financiers in Canada are becoming very concerned about the fiscal responsibility of the proposed Liberal-NDP budget. This alarming situation emerges while President George W. Bush attempts to sell his new pension plan and financial gurus State side plead for new pension deals with workers. At this point in time this entire alteration of corporate infrastructure to meet
demands of globalization in the United States insofar as workers (particularly) are concerned is huge. At what point in time will Canadian pensions face similar pressure after years of tens of billions of dollars of ‘protectionist’ trade losses with the United States? Will an additional multi-billion dollar budget in the name of ‘parliament’ ultimately help or hurt the Canadian economy down the road? How much longer can the Canadian media pretend that a sour political relationship with the United States is not hurting Canadian families?
With most Canadians holding family equity in principal residences the potentiality of financial instability occurring in light of budgetary overspending could impact on interest rates and thus mortgages and kick start economic difficulties in this country. Weighing against this is tremendous pressure on Cities and Municipalities to develop infrastructure that is seriously lagging behind the needs of the citizens. A decade of the federal Liberals hording of surpluses at the expense of provinces and cities has now created a looming financial crisis of confidence in this country where financial experts are nervous about fiscal responsibility as economic indicators such as a downward trend in Canadian exports as a consequence of higher Canadian dollar values, signal a need for a more common sense budget.
Politicians like Port Moody, British Columbia’s Mayor Joe Trasolini who is facing Municipal elections in the fall want to keep Property Tax increases as low as 2.9% something his constituents can live with, but what will voting down of the proposed Liberal-NDP budget mean to the tremendous pressures on cities and towns like his and Mayor Larry Campbell’s of Vancouver? Although provincial governments have much less influence on economies than some would have us believe it is important to consider with an election in BC on Tuesday May 17, 2005 and a 50/50 chance of a multi-billion dollar budget passing soon thereafter, who will British Columbians trust more to distribute those budget dollars to designated provincial programs, Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals or Carole James and BC NDP?
Conservatives have the highest percentage of support in Alberta and Saskatchewan (61% and 48%) with the lowest in Quebec (18%) and the Maritime provinces (34%).
Liberals have their highest support in the Maritimes at (41%) and Ontario (37%) with their lowest support in Quebec (09%) and Alberta (17%).
This poll suggests that Conservatives are posed take 75-80 seats from the four western provinces. With the possibility that Quebec may offer very little to either the Conservatives or the Liberals will Ontario voters get off the fence and make a decision to have their voice heard in a future Conservative government or will they vote in the ’devil they know’ and give the Liberals another smaller minority government?
This survey approximates seat projections as follows: Conservatives (130), Liberals (86), Bloc Quebecois (70) and NDP (23).

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